Super Rugby Pacific tipping Week 4: Canes to run riot against Tahs, Crusaders slide set to continue

This week is Kids Round in Super Rugby Pacific, with discounted and/or free tickets for kids on offer across the six games this weekend.

And it is a great idea. It’s a bit of a shame it needs a special round, and isn’t just *something Super Rugby does* but any moves to make games more attractive and more attainable for families to get to is certainly to be applauded.

Tipping is hardly child’s play at the moment, with a couple of choice results on the weekend seeing a bit of movement on the table, and even a narrowing of the spread across the field too, which knowing Harry is almost certainly going to result in some degree of spite-tipping this weekend.

Which could be fun, but cover your ears, kids. Uncle Harry is just blowing off some steam.

Four games in New Zealand this weekend, and two games on Sunday – including the Highlanders’ first jaunt down to the deep south, and Queensland finally getting to play a game in Brisbane again.

Good luck this weekend, and won’t somebody, please, think of the children.

LAST WEEK: Geoff 5, Brett 5, Digger 4, Christy 4, Harry 3; The Crowd 5.

OVERALL: Geoff 13, Digger 13, Christy 13, Brett 12, Harry 11; The Crowd 14.

Geoff

TIPS: HURRICANES, REBELS, BLUES, BRUMBIES, HIGHLANDERS, REDS

The Waratahs have had a week to consider how they might have got a bit ahead of themselves, and I expect them to acquit themselves well in Wellington. But there was a lot to like about the Canes’ second half last week, and they have ‘you know who’ back after a week’s rest.

The Rebels have momentum and there’s no reason why they won’t go on with it against the Chiefs, who are due to rest some of their big names over the next fortnight. Happy to take the odds to an upset.

It seems incredible to tip the Crusaders to slip to 1/3, but their injury woes are starting to bite. In Canberra, Moana Pasifika blew their chance to pick up a win last weekend; they won’t be offered the same opportunity by the Brumbies.

Two matches on Sunday makes things very trying for anyone who has a Monday rugby column to prepare, but such is life. The Highlanders are bruised but will have targeted this match against the Force as a ‘must win’. In the closer, the Drua will show how they’re a 20-point different team away from home. Reds by a few.

SURE THING: Jeremy Thrush won’t be able to help himself and, leading a few of his teammates astray, they’ll sneak off and tuck into a feed of blue cod and a huge tin of Bluff Oysters before the match. As a result, they’ll lumber around like carthorses, lose, but it will all have been worth it.

Brett

TIPS: HURRICANES, CHIEFS, BLUES, BRUMBIES, HIGHLANDERS, REDS

Ardie Savea has had a week off to rest and stew and the same time, and what better time for a team to go and face him at the Cake Tin than coming off a disappointing performance flattered by the scoreline. The borrow a popular turn of phrase in these parts, ‘Canes by plenty.

The Rebels did the flattering last week in Melbourne, but I’m not sure the unbeaten Chefs in their cauldron in the ‘Tron, the city of the future, will be easily flattered on the scoreboard. Think the Brumbies will be a bit much for Moana in Canberra, too, and ditto the Reds finally back in Brisbane after a month away.

When did I last tip against the Crusaders, I asked myself as I nervously typed ‘B-L-U-E-S’ above. Only once in the last two seasons, taking a quick glance backwards, and yes, I got that one wrong. This time feels different, though. Even with my history with the You Know Whos.

Cameron Suafoa of the Blues jumps  (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Which just leaves the Highlanders-Force and what feels like the classic untippable game. The advent of Golden Point has taken the draw off the table as a viable option, and confidence about either team in this contest isn’t great. So Highlanders at home, I guess, even though it’s not ‘home home’. They might be lynched if they don’t win in Invercargill though, so maybe that’s motivation enough. Maybe.

SURE THING: Don’t even ask. Just re-read my thinking around the third game of the weekend. I’ll be over in the corner, simultaneously sweating and crying.

Digger

TIPS: HURRICANES, CHIEFS, CRUSADERS, BRUMBIES, HIGHLANDERS, REDS

Our sole Friday night fare sees two sides who will be rather disappointed about their last-up efforts, and both will be motivated to right the ship. I feel the Hurricanes look a little more organised and fluid, plus being at home tips the ‘Canes for me.

Saturday, the two top teams, Chiefs and Brumbies at home appear no brainers, while the Blues host the Crusaders in a chance for a slice of revenge after last year’s final and promises to perhaps be the match of the round.

I will tip the visiting Crusaders – the Blues set piece looks vulnerable to me and the Crusaders will be very focused after their shock result against the Drua. They do not tend to lose two in a row very often.

Jack Goodhue of the Crusaders (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

Fantastic to see some Sunday daytime games as well, with Invercargill getting a taste of Super and while the Highlanders have not had the best of seasons to date, the Force look worse.

We close the round off in Brisbane, and despite the remarkable Drua achievement last week I think it will be pretty hard for them to get up again mentally away from home. The Reds look on an upward curve and I think they may take this comfortably.

SURE THING: A returning Ardie Savea up against the in-form Langi Gleeson promises to be a must see head to head clash, while I wonder if Josh Moorby’s golden touch, or rather golden arm, will continue to find fortune?

Christy

TIPS: HURRICANES, CHIEFS, BLUES, BRUMBIES, HIGHLANDERS, REDS

You could see Ardie Savea in the stands at the Cake Tin seething. Hands on heads. He wasn’t happy. Good luck Waratahs. After blowing two early try scoring chances last week, Darren Coleman’s men are starring down the barrel of a nightmare start to 2023.

Round four shapes as one of the easiest to tip. The ‘Canes should run riot at home. The Rebels should put up a fight but the Chiefs will be too strong. Later Saturday evening the Brumbies won’t trip up against Moana Pasifika. The Crusaders trip to Eden Park shapes as the match of the round. The Blues will be up for it.

The Force scrapped over the line against Moana last week. But even though they’re up against the winless Highlanders, they’ll face a sterner test than the Reds in Melbourne. That’s ominous.

As for the Reds, they should be too strong for the Drua, who could well find it tough to back it up following their emotional win over the Crusaders in Fiji.

SURE THING: Max Jorgensen faces a wild time in Wellington but he’ll spend a lot more time in the No.15 jersey. It’ll be his home for a long, long time.

Harry

TIPS: HURRICANES, CHIEFS, BLUES, BRUMBIES, HIGHLANDERS, REDS (BY 1-2).

Moana Pasifika looked splendid in the beachiest strip in all of rugby but ripped my heart out by finding five ways to give the win to the Force.

Brett: just wanted to mention that last scrum again…

Luckily, the next round has no conundra. It’s a home sweep. All visitors will lose.

So, I’ll spend all my time on the Sure Thing.

SURE THING: After all the tweaks to the laws or how existing laws are interpreted or enforced (the brake foot comes to mind; why are we giving poor hookers, who already have gone full yips neurotic from us imposing lineout throw duty on their lumpy shoulders, this new strange mission to accept?), rugby is still won by the team playing fundamental rugby best: clear, big, fast, fit, strong.

Len Ikitau of the Brumbies breaks through the tackle of Tom Lynagh of the Reds during the round three Super Rugby Pacific match between ACT Brumbies and Queensland Reds at GIO Stadium, on March 11, 2023, in Canberra, Australia. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

The Brumbies and Chiefs are putting full fifteen system (FFS) rugby on the pitch each match; everyone getting back up quicker than their opposite, plugging holes, tracking back, refusing to lose, finding the right height and shape, moving smartly, and converting chances. LVs vary success very little.

Rugby is mostly adaptation anyway: an LV is just another challenge. In fact, the LV’s demand on the starting pack is rewarding the deeper teams. Fatigue is the friend not of the fastest pack; but rather of the deepest.

Get your tips in now. The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEDT.

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