Four per cent. It is that percentage that Darren Coleman is clinging on to as his Waratahs prepare to drive down the Hume Highway to take on the Brumbies in Canberra in a bid to get their season back on track.
Only six weeks ago, Coleman had another four on his mind: top four ambitions, but those aspirations are dead in the water after coming away with just one win from their opening five matches.
Now, they’ve been written off by the punters, told they should have been smashed against the Chiefs by Wallabies coach Eddie Jones and had it put to them that their rivalry with the Brumbies is “dead”.
“I read a prediction,” Coleman told reporters on Friday, “I think it was 96 per cent for the Brumbies and four per cent for us. I don’t mind that.
“I like that aspect. We understand the enormity of the challenge, but it’s mainly been about us getting our system and execution right.”
Earlier in the week, Brumbies chairman Matt Nobbs set the cat amongst the pigeons by stating that the once-great local derby had lost its lure.
“It used to be a great rivalry,” he said, having witnessed the Brumbies win every encounter since 2018 and 13 of the past 14 matches.
Asked whether Nobbs’ comments had added to the motivation of going down and doing a job on their fancied rivals, Coleman played a relatively straight back. Well, at least it was delivered with a dead-panned face.
“I did hear that,” Coleman said.
“It’s not the first time a chairman has been out of touch with his players. I think his head coach and two players didn’t share those thoughts. It doesn’t matter. The natural rivalry motivates us.”
Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham knows the importance of some pre-game niggle, but his task will have undoubtedly been made more difficult by his chairman’s comments.
Nonetheless, if there is one person who understands the rivalry it is Larkham.
“I don’t know if it’s evolved, it’s still there. It’s part of the history of the club,” he said.
“We had a lot of players that had come down from Sydney, from the Randwick area, and bolstered up our team in the early days when we didn’t have enough local talent and they brought with them a general hatred for the establishment up there and that sort of carried over.
“Do we still have the hatred for that? It’s probably a little bit different because we don’t have the amount of players that we had in the past, but certainly because they’re so close we still have that rivalry.
“We play them twice every year and we got one-up in the first round, but we know it’s going be a very physical encounter at the start of this game.”
The Brumbies are quite rightly the hot favourites, having rested their Test stars during their lone loss of the year against the Crusaders in Christchurch.
The Waratahs, too, welcome back to key players, with Lalakai Foketi and Max Jorgensen returning to add some class to the backline.
For Coleman’s side, plenty is on the line.
A generous finish to the regular season should see them finish with a wet sail, but momentum and Wallabies spots in a World Cup year can also be won and lost on Saturday night.
The Waratahs are already expecting to see a number of their stars dropped from the national reckoning, with Jones giving the franchise some home truths on his weekly podcast Eddie.
“I don’t think I’ve seen the Chiefs play as poorly as that for a long time,” Jones said.
“They were way off their game but were still good enough to beat a Waratahs side which is still trying to find itself. It’s been a tough start for them. When you have those starts where the expectation is high at the start of the season, you’ve had a good pre-season … it’s hard to emotionally recover.
“Sometimes it takes one different message to change the team and that’s what Darren Coleman is looking for now. They would have been disappointed with that performance. They’re not far away. They’ve got to have a plan to take away the Brumbies’ strength.”
Coleman, too, believes form should be rewarded and says on the evidence of their season alone, they’re not the ones holding the cards.
“I think he has even touched on it, there’s some players that through historical form will probably get a shot but, yeah, one in four, so we haven’t been shooting the lights out and I imagine that will be reflected in a lot of the close selections,” he said.
“He’ll go with the guys in form, you’d hope.”
But after a hellish start to the year, which has been compounded by a horror injury toll, Coleman admits he’s dreaming of turning the tables on the side that started their rut.
“I think I said round one was probably the biggest game of my short career and then this would be one of the better victories if we could pull it off,” he said.
“I’m always a romantic at heart. I like that challenge and I’ve fast-forwarded to the moment when that whistle goes, and we’ve pulled off an upset down there.
“So, it’s definitely something I think a lot and am passionate about. I don’t think passion is our issue at the moment, we’ve just got to make sure that we execute a little better so I’ve got to make sure I’m portraying that as well. I’m pretty passionate by nature, so I’ve got to make sure we’re I’m a little bit more clinical in my messaging so that the boys can be as well.”
Faith
Roar Rookie
Shaun Stevenson unable to defend Clarke over there ...
Faith
Roar Rookie
Very very sloppy from BBB. If Blues don't score here that might be an issue ...
Faith
Roar Rookie
That was terribly from the Chiefs. Letting Sotutu get in there ...
Passit2me
Roar Rookie
The way some of the Aussie teams have been playing this year, it seems the Eddie factor could be getting inside their heads.
JC
Roar Rookie
Nadolo probably wasn’t expected to get so much game time but Beale’s non-availability changed that, plus the injuries to Pietsch and Jorgensen. Would rather see more of Harry Wilson.
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Wouldn't think fit enough at this stage ..recall Willie O playing flanker but prob 6 could be wrong.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Or Pentridge in ‘67?
Short Arm
Roar Rookie
I thought I saw somewhere they had him at #7. Not sure about this, if he is going to be an effective #7 is he still going to be able to do his big hit ups? I realise he's young but is he that fit?
Crusher_13
Roar Rookie
I know that. You know that. Every serious rugby supporter knows that. Why is the media saying “ The Waratahs, too, welcome back to key players, with Lalakai Foketi and Max Jorgensen returning to add some class to the backline.” How is a kid in his 4th(?) professional game a key player?
jameswm
Roar Guru
He's not what's needed and you know it.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Brumbies massive favourites but gee I want this to be the game the Tahs just play out of their skins and cause an upset. 4% eh? So you’re saying there’s a chance!
Crusher_13
Roar Rookie
I think you are misreading. A lot of the comments are taken from the story. I personally feel it is ridiculous to say that an 18 year old will be what the Waratahs need to get their season back on track. That’s an absolutely ridiculous thing to say. That’s not the Waratahs, or the fans, that’s the media.
Paul D
Roar Rookie
Nadolo is likely on the minimum. If he adds some experience at training it’ll be money well spent. But I don’t want him playing much.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
Nick Berry is the referee he doesn’t like the Brumbies scrum and loves the scrummaging of Harry Four Counties . Always tough for the Brumbies with the Undertaker !
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Is Gleeson playing?
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Top 3
Wizz
Roar Rookie
If Force salary cap was bendable which it should be as they have wealthy benefactor in wings Cron wish could easily be realistic.
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Selections have been strange in some cases Rennie like!!
cs
Roar Guru
Plus Eddie's being rather harsh. To be sure, the Chiefs did play poorly, but to some degree that was because of Tah pressure. We're coming off, as someone said, our best loss yet. Now for the next step. Go the Tahs!
cs
Roar Guru
Settle. He's just playing the underdog card.