Origin I predicted teams: How Maroons, Blues squads are shaping up as rising stars put incumbents under pressure

Several incumbents are under pressure to keep their spots for NSW and Queensland in their final month to impress selectors for game one.

There are a few no-brainer selections such as Tom Trbojevic, Latrell Mitchell, Payne Haas and Cameron Munster returning to their respective sides after injuries last year but form over the next five rounds will dictate many line-ball calls for Billy Slater and Brad Fittler. 

From the 17-man line-ups who fought out the series decider at Suncorp Stadium when the Maroons clinched a 22-12 triumph, nearly all 34 players are in contention.

Blues forward Angus Crichton made his return to the playing field in NSW Cup on Saturday for the Roosters’ feeder side Newtown so he may have a few rounds in the NRL to show he’s up for Origin while Maroons winger Corey Oates is unlikely to be back in time to regain his spot. 

There is a fresh concern for the Blues with Liam Martin tweaking his hamstring on Saturday night in his return from a month on the sidelines. Although he felt it early, he played 35 minutes of Penrith’s thrilling win over Newcastle but will undergo scans to determine the extent of the damage.

A player who would have been in contention for a Blues spot was Jack Wighton, but the Canberra star caused a major surprise on Monday by announcing his retirement from rep footy.

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Here’s how the two states are shaping up for the May 31 showdown at Adelaide Oval with just five rounds left before the teams are announced.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

NSW Blues

2022 Origin III team

1 James Tedesco
2 Brian To’o
3 Matt Burton
4 Stephen Crichton
5 Daniel Tupou
6 Jarome Luai
7 Nathan Cleary
8 Junior Paulo 
9 Api Koroisau 
10 Jake Trbojevic
11 Cameron Murray
12 Liam Martin
13 Isaah Yeo
Interchange
14 Damien Cook
15 Jacob Saifiti
16 Angus Crichton
17 Siosifa Talakai

2023 contenders

Blues spine: Unlikely to change – Luai and Koroisau have not been in the best of form and Cook may get the nod as starting hooker. Nicho Hynes, Cody Walker and Matt Burton are options at five-eighth or as a bench utility. 

Outside backs: Josh Addo-Carr’s chances of a recall to the wing were cruelled by the syndesmosis injury he suffered last week. Brian To’o is a lock for one spot while Joseph Suaalii should get the nod ahead of Roosters teammate Daniel Tupou to give the Blues a strike option rather than a safe one on the other flank. 

Tom Trbojevic (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Trbojevic and Mitchell will reunite in the centres as they’ve done successfully in seasons prior to last year when they were both unavailable due to shoulder and hamstring problems. Rabbitohs centre Campbell Graham is another contender after continuing the form from his representative breakthrough with the Kangaroos at the end of last year.

Forward pack: Haas’ absence with a bung shoulder was a big factor in the Blues losing the series decider but as far as other middle forwards, Yeo is the only player at the top of his game this season. 

Trbojevic may be struggling to retain his spot, Paulo has been hampered by a suspension while Saifiti has also been in judiciary trouble. 

Reagan Campbell-Gillard will be in contention but Fittler doesn’t ever appear keen to pick him, Daniel Saifiti is another option with Origin experience.

Panthers powerhouse Moses Leota was on the fringe of selection in recent years and the Blues nearly picked him last year but he is not available after a check of the records showed he had moved to Australia at the age of 13, a year too late under eligibility rules. “It was a kick in the guts,” Leota said last year and he went on to represent New Zealand at the World Cup.

The Blues have more second-rower options so Murray could be used in the middle forward rotation. 

Martin will be a surefire starter if his hamstring injury doesn’t get in the way while Crichton faces stiff competition from Manly’s Haumole Olakau’atu and Canberra’s Hudson Young for a spot. South Sydney’s Keaon Koloamatangi is out of the running after suffering a syndesmosis injury last week against the Dolphins.

Haumole Olakau’atu. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Possible 2023 Origin I team

1 James Tedesco
2 Brian To’o
3 Tom Trbojevic
4 Latrell Mitchell
5 Joseph Suaalii
6 Jarome Luai
7 Nathan Cleary
8 Payne Haas
9 Api Koroisau 
10 Junior Paulo 
11 Cameron Murray
12 Liam Martin
13 Isaah Yeo
Interchange
14 Damien Cook
15 Jake Trbojevic
16 Angus Crichton
17 Hudson Young
18 Daniel Saifiti

Queensland Maroons

2002 Origin III team

1 Kalyn Ponga
2 Selwyn Cobbo
3 Valentine Holmes
4 Dane Gagai
5 Corey Oates
6 Tom Dearden
7 Daly Cherry-Evans
8 Lindsay Collins
9 Ben Hunt
10 Josh Papalii
11 Kurt Capewell
12 Jeremiah Nanai
13 Patrick Carrigan
Interchange
14 Harry Grant
15 Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
16 Jai Arrow
17 Tom Gilbert

2023 contenders

Maroons spine: Cameron Munster will return at five-eighth for Tom Dearden, who was impressive in his debut when the Storm star was sidelined due to an untimely bout of COVID-19. 

The dynamic dummy-half duo of Grant and Hunt will share the hooking duties while DCE will again lead from the front at halfback. 

Fullback is the mystery element for the Maroons. Ponga lived up to his big-game player reputation to star in last year’s series upset but is not due back from his latest concussion layoff until next week at the earliest.

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Reece Walsh has been electric for the Broncos while Dolphins speedster Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is the NRL’s leading try-scorer with eight from seven appearances.

If Ponga can get anywhere near his best at the Knights over the next month, the famous Maroons loyalty will ensure he remains in the No.1 jersey, otherwise Walsh will get to make his debut after a couple of false starts with The Hammer likely to nail down a spot somewhere else in the backline. 

Outside backs: Oates was probably going to be pushing it to retain his wing spot even without his broken jaw. Xavier Coates was impressive earlier in the series last year and will likely partner Cobbo on the flanks unless Tabuai-Fidow ends up on a wing.

Tabuai-Fidow could also unseat Gagai at centre alongside Holmes as he has experience playing there from his Cowboys days.

Forward pack: The big question mark among the incumbents is Papalii, who has had a slow start to the year at Canberra and was given limited game time by Slater last series. 

His Raiders teammate Corey Horbsburgh, Eels recruit J’maine Hopgood are in contention for a debut Maroons jersey while Gold Coast’s David Fifita is also getting back to his best after injury and patchy form led to him being overlooked by Slater last year.

Tom Gilbert and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow celebrate after a Dolphins try. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

Cowboys forward Reuben Cotter is almost certain to be a bench option given his versatility and impressive debut in game one last year before he was hobbled by a hamstring injury. 

Dolphins lock Tom Gilbert has been one of the form forwards in the NRL so veterans like Papalii, Jai Arrow and even Kurt Capewell could be under the pump to get a start.

Possible 2023 Origin I team

1 Reece Walsh
2 Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
3 Valentine Holmes
4 Dane Gagai
5 Xavier Coates
6 Cameron Munster
7 Daly Cherry-Evans
8 Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
9 Ben Hunt
10 Lindsay Collins
11 Kurt Capewell
12 Jeremiah Nanai
13 Patrick Carrigan
Interchange
14 Harry Grant
15 Tom Gilbert
16 Reuben Cotter
17 David Fifita
18 Jai Arrow