After Carlton ended the 2022 AFL season in ninth place, Blues fans would have been disappointed to miss the finals losing to their arch-rivals by a solitary point and Melbourne the week before by 5 points.
But with 12 wins and a percentage of 108.3 Blues fans were content that Micheal Voss’s men were progressing nicely.
Nine rounds into 2023, results have not improved and arguably progression has gone backwards leaving fans restless.
The last time Carlton played finals was back in 2014. Ever since that point, there has been an endless rebuild consisting of awful list management decisions and the departures of Mick Malthouse, Brendan Bolton, and David Teague at Ikon Park.
Indeed, list management has been a problem at the Blues, setting back their climb to the top of the ladder. High draft picks of Paddy Dow (pick 3) Sam Petrevski-Seton (pick 6), Lachie O’Brien (pick 10) and Liam Stocker (pick 19) have all not worked out for the club. Getting these picks right is crucial for a premiership build.
Have we all forgotten the Hawthorn dynasty?
Draft picks were nailed by the Hawks, acquiring Jarryd Roughhead (pick 2), Lance Franklin (pick 5) and Jordan Lewis (pick 7) all in the same draft.
And the recycled Giants recruits over the years, with Kristian Jaksch, Matthew Kennedy, Jed Lamb, Caleb Marchbank, Rhys Palmer, Lachie Plowman and Will Setterfield, the list goes on. Yes, it may be unfair to list these players, however, the Blues have not been able to recover since.
In recent years the Blues have gone out to recruit experienced players such as Zac Williams, Mitch McGovern, Adam Saad and Adam Cerra. It is fair to say the football world has not seen the best of these players, Saad being the outlier.
The other three seem to have been overpaid from the return that they have given so far. Since joining the Blues at the end of 2018, McGovern has only played 48 games at the club whilst Zac Williams’s body has continued to let him down.
So when, if not this year, for finals?
Carlton CEO Brian Cook believes it is not the “end of the world,” if the team misses the eight this year.
Carlton player Adam Cerra said, “It’s not a failure. Every day we’re just trying to get better in progress. If we’re improving from last year as a team, not ladder position, but our connection within the group it’s not a failure.”
Adam Cerra of the Blues runs with the ball. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
Expectations seem to have changed since the start of the year until now in Round 10.
This year the Blues are ranked third for disposals and 14th for inside 50s, emphasising their inability to move the ball forward, compounded by the Blues’ mids not impacting matches with Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps ranked 360th in the competition for impact from ball use.
But not just Cripps, with Sam Walsh ranked 355th, George Hewett 242nd, and Matthew Kennedy 110th. Ironically, Adam Cerra, being their best ball user ranked 52nd, is spending more time in a half-back role.
Does the club have enough ball elite ball users around the ground? Carlton are second in the competition for contested possession and sixth for turning the ball over with players like Sam Docherty and Nic Newman racking a heap of the ball down back but seem to do little damage when with it.
In fact, the Blues are ranked 12th for scores for, surprisingly with two key superstars forwards, Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow deep. McKay’s goal-kicking is a clear worry, with his indecisiveness on whether to kick a snap or a drop punt. McKay has kicked 12 goals and 11 behinds for the first nine games.
Many problems and too many question marks for a club attempting to contend for a flag this year.
Will their 18-22 players step up and lift the weight off their core stars? Only time will tell. The plight of Josh Honey, Matthew Owies, Corey Durdin and Matthew Cotrell will be again tested through the vigorous cycle of AFL football.
For now, the jury is still out. The time is now for this Blues side to make its mark on the competition because the AFL world has been waiting a long time to see the navy blue in full flight again.
No9
Roar Rookie
When will it end , you ask ? When Carlton's rich backers can buy players from other clubs as they did in their premiership years .
Brick
Roar Rookie
What Carlton do at the end of the year with the list will be interesting. They have a few players that are chronically injured. Some of them on big coin. Changes need to made to their list.
Jimmy Woods
Roar Rookie
At risk of ubiquitous commentary from pies fan, I got to watch the baggers again on Sunday and gotta say that I think it’s the coach. Like R23 last year, they have talent to burn but a game style that is too safe & slow, reminds me of Buckley’s coaching. The players get down on themselves when make a mistake but have a game plan that requires Clarko Hawks precision, without the ability to execute, causing turnovers. Heard Snapper on radio & think we all understand the pain. For what it’s worth.
Simoc
Roar Rookie
Hardwick didn't fix Tigers, the Tigers trained Hardwick to coach professionally, 2020s style. Voss was poor at Brisbane and nothing seems to have changed. I was certain they'de turned the corner last season but now they look like a Gold Coast team. Start big then fritter away. I don't think Steve Silvani's kids are AFL level. They got picked up on the back of his stardom but seem so ordinary in comparison.
Liam Cole
Roar Rookie
The core of the Carlton team is impressive however their 18-22 seems to always be the problem. Patrick Cripps’ back is broken from carrying the team for so long.
Liam Cole
Roar Rookie
Yeah, the Blues are a huge club, and l feel the administration does too much talking giving a lot of external pressure for the team.
asd
Roar Rookie
It took Hardwick years to fix tigers then they never lost a flag while he coached so it could take more time for sure if they dont listen to Voss who will they listen to
UnderHeatleyStand
Roar Rookie
First game was at Princes Park in 1969 as a 5-year old – my thoughts. Opposition have worked us out -> no Plan B C or D from Vossy & Co. Not one elite kick in the club: CC only relatively reliable, decent one. Shocking kicking skills has been a problem for 7-8 years at least. Try to go through the corridor to address the slow build-ups but can’t hit targets 25m+ reliably by foot, resulting in turnovers, putting teammates at disadvantage (in 50/50 marking contests, or open play). Lack composure: panic and turnover merchants, particularly when early heat is on/under pressure from opposition. Poor decision making. Inability to stop sides going coast to coast. Small forwards a "work in progress" (still): not enough goals, inconsistent forward pressure. Mentally soft, not only the obvious examples (e.g. end of last year choke, final minute disasters), but also losing to Adelaide and St Kilda (last year and this year) - we’re the Tottenham of the AFL. Too many on the list always injured (Marchbank; Cuningham; Martin; Williams pre-knee; McGovern; Philp) – cut our losses, get rid of them plus Dow, LOB, Kennedy, Ed C (given another year for being a loyal soldier!), and recruit more physically resilient players. Talk ourselves up too much (“we want to be known for being hard at the contest”; “our midfield are getting their identity back” “we’re cooking something up”) -> I realise that crap is to sell memberships, but good clubs don’t tell us, they SHOW us!!! SOLUTION: recruit tough, resilient blokes who are composed and good decision-makers under pressure, can KICK, and the Club collectively keeps its mouth shut !!!
Michael Black
Roar Rookie
Great article Liam. I think Carlton is a club heavily burdened by history. I always think back to John Elliott (truly competing with Jeff Kennett for the title of footy's most arrogant off-field figure, with Eddie McGuire fast nipping at their heels) and the dark days of the salary cap scandal, something they've never truly been able to shake off ever since. One finals appearance in the last decade (with an enormous asterix courtesy of Essendon and the supplements saga) shows a club that doesn't seem to understand where they are. A club that still tries to almost buy their way to success rather than actually develop talent. Their top tier is really good, but it falls away dramatically after that, and at some point, their A grade players will suffer (if not already) from having to carry the club on their backs.
The Ghost
Roar Rookie
Not as ugly as Pies fans booing Buddy.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
When the players state to the public that making finals doesn’t matter I think the supporters are entitled to partake in showing their disgust. Leaving the game early may look bad but the performances that followed proved that decision to be correct. The biggest embarrassment is the performance on the field not supporters leaving the game before the final siren.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
If you’d watched them play all season you wouldn’t predict finals at this stage. The list should be good enough but the performances aren’t.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
Over possessing the ball does not go well in the wet. I don’t think the wet conditions will suit the Blues at all. Fast direct play would be more effective in the conditions and the Blues just don’t do that.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Sorry Liam, meant to say what a well written article.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I think the Blues will have a run at finals Diesel. If not this game, you will get a few going and momentum at some stage. Trouble is now, the natives are restless. Whereas in reality you might be better off finishing bottom 6, the pressure for at least one final is huge. Blues crowds booing their own now is an ugly look. Still think in the conditions today you’re a big chance.
Diesel-747
Roar Rookie
No chance
Diesel-747
Roar Rookie
Like your optimism Polly. Let’s see how you feel @4 pm .
Diesel-747
Roar Rookie
Another Kiss of death call here Mr Scribe. This game will be the nail in the reality coffin. All will realise Carlton only have paypackets that match talent . Most realise anyway except the inner sanctum. ……….. On field they play like reserves level at best. Truly I’ve seen better football in the CDFL . Guys getting 250$ a game. Slotting goals from 40 m out regularly drop punt style. Some double figures regularly – it’s good to see them kicking the drop punt . ….At Carlton , Some of the decision making and execution in F50 is embarrassing. Really shots on goal this season , you and I would nail in the usual drop punt style that big bucks players are butchering . We know who they are. I’ve tipped pies easily by minimum of 8 goals.-12 goals possible , Even in 5 inches of rain. Today ends Carlton’s season that really never started . I’m on the pies bandwagon & would love to see them go all the way . Enjoy the champagne footy Peter.
Diesel-747
Roar Rookie
There is still optimism Carlton can turn it around- certainly from the inner sanctum. However I think today Pete the reality will set in. An 8 + goal touch up on its way. Carlton match every club with pay packets, perhaps even on top of ladder in this regard, yet They are miles, miles off top 8 level of football . Carlton will struggle with most sides other than bottom 3. Top 8 contenders will see Carlton as an opportunity to boost %& fine tune game plans. I saw the writing on the wall - last Qtr V north Melbourne. Carlton will receive yet another high draft pick this year( I feel sorry to the poor kid who ends up in navy) royal pde becoming a grave yard for talent penalised for being Quality players in their junior yrs. Let’s see how new pres sayer handles another failed year with a coach still 18 months to run on contract . The only excitement to come out of the year. ( and beating Geelong)
Polly
Roar Rookie
Hi Pete..yeah I agree with the stat obsessed comment. It’s really weird how some people go all in on stats, and ignore the chipping around stuff you’ve mentioned. Don’t get me wrong, stats can have their place, but I’m not sure they should be used to go to war with peoples opinions.