SRP QF talking points: The 'crushing fail' Australia must avoid, Tahs duo who can seal World Cup tickets

Where is the disruptor, where is the shake-up game, that throws out all our simplistic calculations on the Super Rugby Pacific quarter-finals?

The most basic research shows that the 2022 quarter-finals were won by the four home teams and by a whopping margin of 21 points on average.

Let’s forget the quarter-finals and go straight to the Chiefs v Brumbies and Crusaders v Blues semi-finals for the meaty end of SRP.

Wait just a minute. That’s not how sport works. The joy of believing in the great upset is one of the most magnetic parts of footy.

What can we hope for because a big, fat blank from Australia’s three teams would be a crushing fail?

The Waratah who can lock in a World Cup spot against Blues

No Max Jorgensen, Jake Gordon or Harry Johnson-Holmes are blows for the Waratahs.

The Tahs are rated 17-point underdogs with most bookies so the predictions are for a loveless visit to Auckland’s Eden Park on Friday night.

The hard thing to stomach here is that the Waratahs have so rarely given us a rip-roaring 50 minutes of play this season, much less 80.

The attack was clunky to start with, a four-win streak revived confidence and then two dud losses to finish the regular season muted expectations again.

The tight five just isn’t assertive enough to boss the Blues even though the balance to the backrow is as good as it has been all season with the Swinton-Gleeson-Hooper combo.

You’d have to say that three of the Waratahs backs (winger Izaia Perese, outside centre Joey Walton and fullback Mark Nawaqanitawase) aren’t even starting in their best positions because of the squeeze of injuries.

If No.8 Gleeson can stand out in this elite company against an All Blacks-studded Blues side, he’s going places with the Wallabies this season.

Langi Gleeson can seal a World Cup ticket if he steps up against the Blues at Eden Park. (Photo by Mackenzie Sweetnam/Getty Images for Bursty PR)

Likewise, Jed Holloway. With Lachie Swinton, we’d just like him to catch the first pass and have his handling skills match his physicality.

It’s very hard to see a Waratahs win here but winning respect with a gutsy effort will be as important after big losses to the Hurricanes, Blues and Crusaders in New Zealand already this season.

Key to Reds’ slim quarter-final hopes

No matter how the Queensland Reds’ season finishes they will always have New Plymouth and that incredible 25-22 boilover against the Chiefs in May.

That will be scant consolation if the Reds don’t fire up on Saturday’s visit to Hamilton because it will be a losing farewell to coach Brad Thorn otherwise.

Some of the hard-running thrust to the backline is missing without injured Wallabies Jordan Petaia and Hunter Paisami.

It’s a shrewd call to switch James O’Connor back to inside centre. The Reds backline has looked at its best and most organised with him at No.12. The hints are strong that he will now be re-signed by the Reds for 2024.

Smart call.

He will also add some calm outside flyhalf Tom Lynagh, who has taken admirable strides this season. He was a rookie without a minute of SRP behind him in February and now he’s starting in a quarter-final with everyone knowing he has a spot-on kicking and passing game.

Reds star Tate McDermott holds the key against the Chiefs. (Photo by Andy Jackson/Getty Images)

The Reds shackled a Chiefs side with Damian McKenzie, Luke Jacobson, Anton Lienert-Brown and Emoni Narawa on deck in May so the tackling and discipline was fierce to apply pressure.

The Chiefs are also pouring All Blacks trio Brodie Retallick, Brad Weber and Sam Cane into the fray this time.

More powerful ball-runners, faster, more precision … the Chiefs do have everything on their side.

The Reds have produced their best showings on the road this season with the wins in Apia and New Plymouth plus the 78 minutes in Dunedin.

Halfback Tate McDermott is the key as he always is to the best Reds performances. They have to get a 10-0 jump to be in this at all.

Brumbies prove doubters wrong, again

The ACT Brumbies are truly the hope of Australian rugby and not for the first time.

Those crazies who once mentioned that a Brumbies-Rebels merger was the solution to streamlining

Australia’s Super Rugby presence were mad.

Hurricanes coach Jason Holland put it eloquently this week when he said the Brumbies’ DNA doesn’t change…pack, the maul and dangerous backs.

You know exactly what you are going to get from the Brumbies plus a little bit of the Steve Larkham fizz to the backline plays.

Nick Frost is one of the Brumbies’ rising stars. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

They’ve beaten the Hurricanes five times in the last 10 match-ups and all of those were at Saturday’s venue, GIO Stadium.

The Canes have been great deceivers in the past. Ardie Savea’s outfit is more substantial.

An Aussie team winning the battle up front is what we want to see. The stats say Rob Valetini has made dominant contact on 63 carries in 2023, the most of any SRP forward. There’s the steel of the Brumbies pack right there.

This finals series may be when we see lock Nick Frost go from very good to dominant. He’s that good and the Wallabies need that from him too.

Wallabies bolter’s crucial missed audition

How good is he? He’s got nine tries as Australia’s Rookie of the Year frontrunner in SRP.

Has the pocket rocket done enough to convince Eddie Jones that his pure speed and try-grabbing knack can translate to the Test arena?

Yes. The reason is he can set up supports and plunge a strong shoulder into tackles. He’s not a one-trick pony.

The only shame is Toole won’t get the chance to test himself against an Canes’ excellent backline after being rubbed out on Thursday. Can he still nudge his name onto the training squad list?

A final tribute

Rugby lost a great advocate and an outstanding journalist this week with the sudden death of Wayne Smith at 69.

His piercing commentaries and tackling of the tough issues in The Australian were a must-read for more than a decade and were bookended by equally valuable work for The Telegraph (Brisbane), The Courier-Mail and the Sydney Morning Herald.

Wayne Smith hated the rolling maul. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

He had great loves in rugby but one great hate in the final years of his career.

He called the plague of rolling maul tries from lineouts one of the great blights on the game. Sure, one for variation but to sometimes see the formation as a side’s go-to attacking play made him weep.

He would smile down on any quarter-final team winning without one this weekend.