Where is the disruptor, where is the shake-up game, that throws out all our simplistic calculations on the Super Rugby Pacific quarter-finals?
The most basic research shows that the 2022 quarter-finals were won by the four home teams and by a whopping margin of 21 points on average.
Let’s forget the quarter-finals and go straight to the Chiefs v Brumbies and Crusaders v Blues semi-finals for the meaty end of SRP.
Wait just a minute. That’s not how sport works. The joy of believing in the great upset is one of the most magnetic parts of footy.
What can we hope for because a big, fat blank from Australia’s three teams would be a crushing fail?
No Max Jorgensen, Jake Gordon or Harry Johnson-Holmes are blows for the Waratahs.
The Tahs are rated 17-point underdogs with most bookies so the predictions are for a loveless visit to Auckland’s Eden Park on Friday night.
The hard thing to stomach here is that the Waratahs have so rarely given us a rip-roaring 50 minutes of play this season, much less 80.
The attack was clunky to start with, a four-win streak revived confidence and then two dud losses to finish the regular season muted expectations again.
The tight five just isn’t assertive enough to boss the Blues even though the balance to the backrow is as good as it has been all season with the Swinton-Gleeson-Hooper combo.
You’d have to say that three of the Waratahs backs (winger Izaia Perese, outside centre Joey Walton and fullback Mark Nawaqanitawase) aren’t even starting in their best positions because of the squeeze of injuries.
If No.8 Gleeson can stand out in this elite company against an All Blacks-studded Blues side, he’s going places with the Wallabies this season.
Likewise, Jed Holloway. With Lachie Swinton, we’d just like him to catch the first pass and have his handling skills match his physicality.
It’s very hard to see a Waratahs win here but winning respect with a gutsy effort will be as important after big losses to the Hurricanes, Blues and Crusaders in New Zealand already this season.
No matter how the Queensland Reds’ season finishes they will always have New Plymouth and that incredible 25-22 boilover against the Chiefs in May.
That will be scant consolation if the Reds don’t fire up on Saturday’s visit to Hamilton because it will be a losing farewell to coach Brad Thorn otherwise.
Some of the hard-running thrust to the backline is missing without injured Wallabies Jordan Petaia and Hunter Paisami.
It’s a shrewd call to switch James O’Connor back to inside centre. The Reds backline has looked at its best and most organised with him at No.12. The hints are strong that he will now be re-signed by the Reds for 2024.
Smart call.
He will also add some calm outside flyhalf Tom Lynagh, who has taken admirable strides this season. He was a rookie without a minute of SRP behind him in February and now he’s starting in a quarter-final with everyone knowing he has a spot-on kicking and passing game.
The Reds shackled a Chiefs side with Damian McKenzie, Luke Jacobson, Anton Lienert-Brown and Emoni Narawa on deck in May so the tackling and discipline was fierce to apply pressure.
The Chiefs are also pouring All Blacks trio Brodie Retallick, Brad Weber and Sam Cane into the fray this time.
More powerful ball-runners, faster, more precision … the Chiefs do have everything on their side.
The Reds have produced their best showings on the road this season with the wins in Apia and New Plymouth plus the 78 minutes in Dunedin.
Halfback Tate McDermott is the key as he always is to the best Reds performances. They have to get a 10-0 jump to be in this at all.
The ACT Brumbies are truly the hope of Australian rugby and not for the first time.
Those crazies who once mentioned that a Brumbies-Rebels merger was the solution to streamlining
Australia’s Super Rugby presence were mad.
Hurricanes coach Jason Holland put it eloquently this week when he said the Brumbies’ DNA doesn’t change…pack, the maul and dangerous backs.
You know exactly what you are going to get from the Brumbies plus a little bit of the Steve Larkham fizz to the backline plays.
They’ve beaten the Hurricanes five times in the last 10 match-ups and all of those were at Saturday’s venue, GIO Stadium.
The Canes have been great deceivers in the past. Ardie Savea’s outfit is more substantial.
An Aussie team winning the battle up front is what we want to see. The stats say Rob Valetini has made dominant contact on 63 carries in 2023, the most of any SRP forward. There’s the steel of the Brumbies pack right there.
This finals series may be when we see lock Nick Frost go from very good to dominant. He’s that good and the Wallabies need that from him too.
How good is he? He’s got nine tries as Australia’s Rookie of the Year frontrunner in SRP.
Has the pocket rocket done enough to convince Eddie Jones that his pure speed and try-grabbing knack can translate to the Test arena?
Yes. The reason is he can set up supports and plunge a strong shoulder into tackles. He’s not a one-trick pony.
The only shame is Toole won’t get the chance to test himself against an Canes’ excellent backline after being rubbed out on Thursday. Can he still nudge his name onto the training squad list?
Rugby lost a great advocate and an outstanding journalist this week with the sudden death of Wayne Smith at 69.
His piercing commentaries and tackling of the tough issues in The Australian were a must-read for more than a decade and were bookended by equally valuable work for The Telegraph (Brisbane), The Courier-Mail and the Sydney Morning Herald.
He had great loves in rugby but one great hate in the final years of his career.
He called the plague of rolling maul tries from lineouts one of the great blights on the game. Sure, one for variation but to sometimes see the formation as a side’s go-to attacking play made him weep.
He would smile down on any quarter-final team winning without one this weekend.
LuckyPhil
Roar Rookie
Not sure anyone, even those in the local Sydney paper, were writing about how the Tahs were going to beat the Blues. They may have been trying to find some positives, but if you have an issue with that maybe stop reading about it.
Jim Tucker
Expert
That Pietsch missed try was very costly. A 14-10 lead potentially and value for a pressuring start. Instead a tumble
Jim Tucker
Expert
Fair view. Mark N could be a fine fullback but needs time in the spot
Jim Tucker
Expert
The Reds are wearing black armbands today for the late Wayne Smith which is a wonderful tribute
Jim Tucker
Expert
Just beating Kiwi sides with slightly ragged play is a problem any Aussie side would love as a problem ????
Jim Tucker
Expert
Rebels the best performed side in losses all year. Don’t yet know how to win. Brums have a gear to go to
Short Arm
Roar Rookie
I think the Ponies won last game Berry had them.
Wizz
Roar Rookie
I'm a fan of Brumbies but sometimes we all believe our own hype and perhaps lessons were learnt against Chiefs or simply our best team isn't a chance against there's...I think they beat the Canes and I think OZ teams front up but there is an obvious gap..
Dusty10
Roar Rookie
G'day Wizz, I don't know mate. I guess the Brums don't hype themselves like those 'orrible Waratahs! The Brums are a decent team, I guess I just miss the truly great Brumbies teams. I definitely have a bad feeling about this game against the Hurricanes. What are your thoughts Wizz?
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Believed there own hype Dusty?
jeznez
Roar Guru
And an article from three weeks ago at that. Heinous!
Dominic Johnson
Roar Rookie
Agreed, spin plays well for pollies and one eyed fans but journalists? not some much....
Paul D
Roar Rookie
How dare the local Sydney/NSW paper actually put a positive spin on anything to do with NSW sport!!! :shocked:
Dominic Johnson
Roar Rookie
Good commentary Jim and a little more realistic than some of the tosh served up by others in the SMH pretending the Tahs are on some sort of Jones inspired resurgence. The only Aussie team with a sniff is the Brumbies who should eke out a win against a passionate Canes side which will probably not have enough gas in the tank after a short rest, tough final pool game and the away travel. The Tahs will try hard after the embarrassment of last week but have neither the structure or the talent to get over the Blues but will bring a bunch of physicality to the pitch. The reds will be much like the dogged Highlanders - brave and willing, but only hanging in there for the first 60 minutes or so. Should be a comfortable victory for the Chiefs who will be looking for a proper hit out before the really tough matches start in the semis. There is a prospect that all of the Aussie teams will lose this weekend which will make from some dire prognostics with the World Cup so close, but the internationals in-between will be real measuring stick.....
LuckyPhil
Roar Rookie
That said, Max is going to be hard to displace Note I used the word displace, not replace. Anyway I assume you are talking about the Reds given they have bought the 13 year old Tom Lynagh in to run the team. :silly:
Wolla Wotsa
Roar Rookie
Imagine a super rugby team with so many test capped players relying on an 18 year old rookie. Very sad state of play :crying: :happy: :thumbup:
Doctordbx
Roar Rookie
Probably. :unhappy:
LuckyPhil
Roar Rookie
I think Markys best position could be fullback, but it will take longer than one game to learn. That said, Max is going to be hard to displace.
LuckyPhil
Roar Rookie
Don't bring facts into it.
LuckyPhil
Roar Rookie
Let me guess, another world wide search where the best candidate was already part of the team and knew the secret handshake.