Flem's Verdict: How Aussies can finish Ashes mission by exploiting England's two main areas of vulnerability

England are taking two huge risks by persisting with Moeen Ali at No.3 and bringing James Anderson back for the fourth Test and if Australia can exploit those two areas, they should be singing the victory song in Manchester.

The break of nine days between the Tests has arrived at a perfect time for the Aussies. It has halted the momentum that England had built up with their win at Headingley and it’s allowed a few of their Australian players to recharge their batteries. 

Pat Cummins has had an enormous workload with the ball and he and Mitchell Starc were looking pretty tired at the end of the third Test so the extra time off will do them the world of good.

And for Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith, it’s not a bad thing for them to get away from constant net sessions as they try to get back to their best.

It’s been an unusual series in that Smithy and Joe Root, the two best batters in each team, have looked spectacular in scoring a century each but outside of that they haven’t done much at all.

Moeen Ali and Jonny Bairstow. (Photo by Visionhaus/Getty Images)

Marnus hasn’t racked up a big score in England but for the most part he’s been getting starts and has got himself out on a few occasions. 

I remember in my playing days there was a Victorian teammate who kept getting to 20 or 30 and getting out. There was clearly a mental barrier there. If you have a sore hamstring you go see a physio and if you have a problem like that, you go see a sports psychologist because it can keep holding you back unless you try a different approach.

He did that and said it was really beneficial because he started getting big scores again after he identified that was his danger zone.

Marnus has been trying a few different things with his technique and where he takes guard but he hasn’t looked out of form. I think once he converts one of these starts into a half-century then he could go on to make a massive score.

I still much prefer having him come in at the fall of the first wicket than Moeen.

It’s happy days for Australia if he comes in straight after the openers again. 

It was admirable that he told Ben Stokes that he wanted to bat three at Headingley because it would help the team but there was nothing to suggest from his brief innings that he is a reliable option there.

His defence isn’t what you’d expect from a top-order batter so I think he’s just going to tee off and if it comes off then England will see that as a bonus.

He’s had 13 innings batting in the top three for England and he’s got one score over 50 and he’s averaging under 14 so I think his best bet is to go full-on Bazball. 

Root prefers to bat at four and Harry Brook showed in the last Test that he’s much more suited to five but if the Aussies can get an early wicket, they could be getting a crack at the middle order pretty quickly. 

I think they’re short batting wise with Moeen in the top six, which is not an ideal scenario for them.

Josh Hazlewood should be coming into the side for Scott Boland and I’d be giving him the new ball with Starc.

Australia’s Mitchell Starc appeals successfully for the wicket of England’s Ben Stokes. (Photo by Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)

He can get a bit of swing in the air and that can trouble Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley and then you’ve got Cummins coming on first change, who is a pretty handy option if the new-ball duo don’t make a breakthrough.

Cummins definitely looked a bit jaded after four straight Tests and sometimes he can take a while to get into his spell but he should be re-energised for the last two matches after getting a well-earned break.

Anderson will get the chance to bowl from an end named in his honour at Old Trafford but it’s actually not one of his better grounds over the course of his career.

And with the way he struggled in the first two Tests, if the pitch is flat again to suit the Bazball batting style, this could be the last time we see him in the England team.

The pitch doesn’t look like it’s going to be a green seamer but there’s supposed to be a bit of rain about, so the overhead conditions could help Anderson get the ball moving around a bit.

He is 41 years old and if England are going to keep trotting out flat pitches, that doesn’t suit medium-fast seamers, you need out and out pace.

I thought Josh Tongue was desperately unlucky not to get recalled. He bowled well at Lord’s and with his extra air speed, he could be more dangerous. 

Even though England named their team 48 hours before the match, the Aussies have kept their line-up to themselves and that’s worked for them in recent times.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

There haven’t been leaks from inside the camp so it’s a tight, happy group at the moment even after the tight loss in Leeds. 

As I wrote in my column for The Roar after the third Test was over, David Warner is at the end of his two-Test buffer so he needs to perform and I think Mitchell Marsh can’t be dropped after scoring a century in his comeback to the side.

Whether that means Cameron Green misses out or Todd Murphy is overlooked, I’m not totally sure. 

If you’re not going to bowl your spinner much, there’s a case to be made for playing your three main quicks and a couple of all-rounders but my gut feel is that Murphy will play because it gives the team balance by having a spinner.

The quicks have generally done better than the spinners at Old Trafford and with rain around, how much will it dry out? If he’s not going to bowl much like at Headingley, it’s a waste of a spot.

Australia don’t need Murphy to be a match-winner but someone who can chime in and get wickets when partnerships need to be broken like when Moeen came on and got Marnus and Smith out in the third Test which turned out to be crucial in the final result.