Mathematical chances: NRL premiership race down to seven - and that’s probably being charitable

By Paul Suttor / Expert

With six rounds left in the NRL, many scenarios are a mathematical possibility but in the real world, there are seven teams at most with anything resembling a realistic chance of lifting the trophy.

Penrith are undoubted favourites, Brisbane, Melbourne and South Sydney have the star power to make a dent in the finals while the Warriors, Cowboys and Raiders have the wildcard factor which can’t be written off.

You can never totally write off the Cinderella story if you saw the Wests Tigers catch lightning in a bottle in 2005.

Cronulla’s hopes of adding a companion piece to their 2016 trophy in their cabinet are over while Parramatta fans who nervously wondered 12 months ago whether this could be the year to break their 1986 drought won’t be chewing their fingernails this time around. 

Dale Finucane’s season-ending bicep injury is the final nail in a Sharks coffin which was pretty much sealed shut after their inspid performances against the Warriors and Manly over the past fortnight.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

The Eels have Shaun Lane now out for the rest of the regular season with an elbow injury, compounding the absence of Josh Hodgson, Dylan Brown, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Maika Sivo. 

When it comes to making the finals, it’s time to put a thick red line through the Titans even though they are only two wins off eighth spot. By the time Tino Fa’asuamaleaui comes back from suspension in a couple of weeks, they’ll likely not even be a mathematical hope. 

Speaking of number crunching, only one team is guaranteed to not make the finals however the final six rounds play out – the Wests Tigers, whose best (unrealistic) hope would be to rise to 11th if they won their remaining matches and all other results went their way.

Not even the Panthers and Broncos are technically guaranteed a playoff berth as yet if they suddenly went on a losing streak and the worst-case scenario for them played out.

But if you would like to put some money on them missing the post-season, that is the definition of not gambling responsibly.

Mathematical best and worst-case scenarios

Rank Team Best/Worst-case finish
1 Panthers  1-11
2 Broncos 1-11
3 Warriors 1-12
4 Storm 1-12
5 Raiders 1-13
6 Sharks 1-16
7 Cowboys 1-14
8 Eels 1-16
9 Rabbitohs 1-16
10 Knights 1-17
11 Sea Eagles 1-17
12 Roosters 2-17
13 Dolphins 2-17
14 Titans 3-17
15 Dragons 7-17
16 Bulldogs 8-17
17 Tigers 11-17

Team by team, here’s how each team is shaping up heading into the final six rounds of the regular season. 

The run home for each team

1. Penrith (32 points, 13-5 record, +236 differential) 

Run home: Sharks (home), Storm (home), Sea Eagles (away), Titans (away), Eels (home), Cowboys (home).

Best/Worst-case scenario:  1-11

Predicted finish: The minor premiership is there for the taking if they want it and with four games at home and just one trip out of Sydney to the fading Gold Coast, they could finish the season by converting their four-game winning streak into 10 unless Ivan Cleary starts giving his stars a late rest, as is his habit.

2. Brisbane (32 points, 14-5 record, +131 differential) 

Run home: Roosters (home), Cowboys (away), Eels (home), bye, Raiders (away), Storm (home).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-11

Predicted finish: Kevin Walters will still be having nightmares about last year’s late-season fade-out to plummet from the top four to ninth and will be reminding his players about complacency. But with a fit roster, a bye and only two road trips on the horizon, a top-two finish should be a given, locking in Brisbane’s first home qualifying final since 2015.

Warriors five-eighth Luke Metcalf. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

3. Warriors (28 points, 12-7 record, +111 differential) 

Run home: bye, Titans (away), Tigers (away), Sea Eagles (home), Dragons (home), Dolphins (away).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-12

Predicted finish: Their remaining draw is a slice of heaven, dah dah dah, boom-boom. After this week’s bye they have to go through customs just twice and face no team ranked higher than 11th. Sneaking into the top two can’t be discounted, particularly if there’s a slip or two from the Broncos, who have a similar differential. 

4. Storm (28 points, 11-7 record, +71 differential) 

Run home: Eels (home), Panthers (away), Raiders (home), Dragons (away), Titans (home), Broncos (home).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-12

Predicted finish: That loss in Newcastle last weekend could prove costly in the final wash-up in the race for the top four. Four home games is a bonus but the Panthers and Broncos should beat Craig Bellamy’s side on current form. Look like they’ll drop a spot or two.

5. Canberra (28 points, 11-7 record, -56 differential) 

Run home: Knights (home), Tigers (home), Storm (away), Bulldogs (home), Broncos (home), Sharks (away).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-13

Predicted finish: The enigma of the contenders – as their for-and-against record suggests, they can win tight matches but also toss out stinkers. Their Round 24 clash with the Storm may decide fourth spot but they’re just as likely to continue their hot streak against Melbourne and drop a winnable game against a lesser opponent.

Jarrod Croker. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)

6. Cronulla (26 points, 10-8 record, +98 differential) 

Run home: Panthers (away), Rabbitohs (away), Titans (home), Cowboys (away), Knights (away), Raiders (home).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-16

Predicted finish: Are sinking without a trace after being in third spot a fortnight ago. Have conceded 54, 44 and 30 in their past three outings against fellow finals contenders. Headed for eighth or ninth and a first-round exit.

7. North Queensland (26 points, 11-8 record, +57 differential) 

Run home: Titans (away), Broncos (home), bye, Sharks (home), Dolphins (away), Panthers (away).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-14

Predicted finish: Giddying up the ladder at the right time of year and should be able to withstand the body blow of Jeremiah Nanai being out for a month with a shoulder problem. They could benefit from a final-round clash with Penrith’s NSW Cup team for the second year in a row, which could get them into the top four if they account for Brisbane next week.

8. Parramatta (24 points, 10-9 record, +89 differential) 

Run home: Storm (away), Dragons (home), Broncos (away), Roosters (home), Panthers (away), bye.

Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-16

Predicted finish: Injuries and ill discipline have torpedoed the Eels’ hopes of something similar to last year’s run to the Grand Final. Even if they sneak into the bottom of the eight they’ll be making up the numbers. 

9. South Sydney (24 points, 10-9 record, +76 differential) 

Run home: Tigers (away), Sharks (home), Dragons (home), Knights (away), bye, Roosters (home).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-16

Predicted finish: With Latrell Mitchell finally fit again after his two-month calf complaint, the Rabbitohs have no more excuses. But as they’ve done a few times in recent years, they’re leaving their run too late to lock up an all-important top-four berth. Will probably end up fifth or sixth after last week’s crucial loss to Brisbane.

10. Newcastle (23 points, 8-1-9 record, +50 differential) 

Run home: Raiders (away), Dolphins (away), Bulldogs (home), Rabbitohs (home), Sharks (home), Dragons (away).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-17

Predicted finish: They don’t have BP emblazoned across their fronts anymore in one of the worst colour clashes in jersey history but they have become the quiet achievers. Beating the Storm last Saturday showed they have put some steel back in Newcastle and with no top-four opponents on their schedule, jagging eighth spot can’t be ruled out.

11. Manly (23 points, 8-1-9 record, -31 differential) 

Run home: Dragons (away), Roosters (away), Panthers (home), Warriors (away), Bulldogs (away), Tigers (home).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-17

Predicted finish: Just when you thought they were had it, they pulled out a 30–0 blitz to blow the Sharks away before nearly coughing up that lead when injuries struck. That’s the tale of their season, they’ve looked strong in patches but don’t have much depth. They’ll end up a point or three outside the playoff equation.

James Tedesco. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

12. Roosters (22 points, 8-10 record, -88 differential) 

Run home: Broncos (away), Sea Eagles (home), Dolphins (home), Eels (away), Tigers (home), Rabbitohs (home).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 2-17

Predicted finish: The next fortnight is crucial for the uncharacteristically hot-and-cold Roosters. After winning three on the trot in March they haven’t had back-to-back victories since. No finals for you. A roster refresh is needed in Sydney’s east.

13. Dolphins (22 points, 8-10 record, -91 differential) 

Run home: Bulldogs (away), Knights (home), Roosters (away), Tigers (away), Cowboys (home), Warriors (home).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 2-17

Predicted finish: Have done well to defy dire pre-season predictions but seem to be running out of puff. Losing Tom Gilbert mid-year to a season-ending injury was the straw that broke the Dolphins’ back.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

14. Gold Coast (20 points, 7-11 record, -52 differential) 

Run home: Cowboys (home), Warriors (home), Sharks (away), Panthers (home), Storm (away), Bulldogs (home).

Best/Worst-case scenario:  3-17

Predicted finish: Des Hasler should have been drafted straight in when they punted Justin Holbrook last month. They lack intensity. Des does not. 

15. St George Illawarra (16 points, 5-13 record, -133 differential) 

Run home: Sea Eagles (home), Eels (away), Rabbitohs (away), Storm (home), Warriors (away), Knights (home).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 7-17

Predicted finish: The 2023 season was over early in 2022 when they exercised the option for the third year of Anthony Griffin’s contract. After waiting an inordinate amount of time to finally show him the door, they have been in a holding pattern under caretaker Ryan Carr, who has at least instilled some spirit into the club. Will probably jag another win or two to finish well clear of the spoon.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

16. Canterbury (16 points, 6-13 record, -262 differential) 

Run home: Dolphins (home), bye, Knights (away), Raiders (away), Sea Eagles (home), Titans (away).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 8-17

Predicted finish: You could make an argument that they are the worst side in the NRL based on performances in relation to roster and pre-season predictions. No one expected the Tigers to do much this year but the Dogs were supposed to be half-decent. They’re not even a quarter-decent. Viliame Kikau is back after missing most of the season but he’s not going to be able to perform miracles with this disorganised mess.

17. Wests Tigers (12 points, 3-15 record, -199 differential) 

Run home: Rabbitohs (home in Tamworth), Raiders (away), Warriors (home in NZ), Dolphins (home), Roosters (away), Sea Eagles (away).

Best/Worst-case scenario: 11-17

Predicted finish: Are a chance to become the fifth team since the turn of the century to not make it to four wins in a full season, alongside the Rabbitohs of 2003 and ‘06, the Bulldogs two years ago and the Knights in 2016, who only had one victory all year. Their chances of an upset in each of the last six rounds are the same each time – slim, at best.

The Crowd Says:

2023-07-27T01:00:02+00:00

Nick

Roar Rookie


I would have sacked him the moment he chose to take the suspensions. Such an extraordinarily selfish approach.

2023-07-26T21:49:09+00:00

Maxtruck

Roar Rookie


Tigers just laying some ground work for the eventual sale to Wests Entertainment Group and relocation to Tamworth. Souths will pull a good crowd, fill some rooms at the Mecure and have the pokies spinning in the leagues club.

2023-07-26T21:13:28+00:00

souvalis

Roar Rookie


Surely BA or someone/ anyone from the football dept. should've been on that.

2023-07-26T13:20:51+00:00

DP Schaefer

Roar Rookie


Yeah, I've played a bit with the predicter and always come to 'Phins on 9th - either by points or F/A

2023-07-26T13:18:38+00:00

DP Schaefer

Roar Rookie


Getting into the top 8 is good and achievement for some clubs (Titans, Dolphins, Knights, Roosters) would be happy just to make it in atm. Those really serious will want a spot in the top 4. Premiership for 2023 Panthers - amazing to be looking so close at a triple and in the box seat. Broncos I think '24 is their year, though they'll come close in '23 Warriors - what a pleasant surprise, I do hope.. Storm - dropped a little in possibility, a little light on in the pack perhaps, not much wrong in the backline. They'll push and come close. Raiders - A dark horse. If they get close, anger might drive them home. The ghosts of '19 will blow a strong wind in their sails. Sharks Cowboys - A strong competitor Eels Rabbitohs - need to win everything from here to the end. A tough ask, needed to beat Brisbane. No-one else matters. Up to Warriors, Raiders or Cows to beat Panthers. I'm happy for any of them. Storm or Rabbits are distant chances. Broncos really could, I just think next year is theirs.. a little more experience to be had.

2023-07-26T08:22:58+00:00

Nick

Roar Rookie


Pre-season matches have stopped being counted for a while though, and even then only ever counted for a max of 2. And yes, not having played in the pre-season and the missing the first 3 weeks, it wasn't exactly a shock he then got injured straight away. No conditioning.

2023-07-26T06:10:12+00:00

Tim Carter

Roar Pro


They might like that treatment, though. Surely you'd have to have a masochistic streak to work for that organization.

2023-07-26T06:06:48+00:00

Tim Carter

Roar Pro


Matterson's excuse was that he thought pre-season trials would be counted towards the suspension, which makes more sense, but is still problematic. First, he didn't actually check that they would count (yes, they had counted in the past, but the NRV'L like to change rules for no reason), and surely Brad Arthur would've appreciated having the option of playing him in the trials.

2023-07-26T06:03:46+00:00

Dumbo

Roar Rookie


HFC; I think that you are considering a degree of sophisticated analysis, and an appreciation of real-world probabilities which the Wests board have not demonstrated for several years.

2023-07-26T05:08:08+00:00

The Mexican

Roar Rookie


Put a Red Line through the Storm to win the premiership this year, with Ryan Papeynhouzen out of the team they don’t have the X factor that can provide the spark needed to win games, I don’t think he will play this year at all

2023-07-26T04:56:38+00:00

Big Mig

Roar Rookie


Penrith then daylight.... Broncos, Souths, Storm or Cows. These last 4 seem the most likely to be able get to the GF, but winning it against the Panthers would need them to take it to another level. I would have as a smokey, the roosters, if they beat the Broncos this weekend, then put a cricket score on the Tigers, then they become a threat.

2023-07-26T04:35:52+00:00

Horses for Courses

Roar Rookie


Dumb or smart? Maybe management had the self-awareness to know they were going to be ruled out of making the finals at this stage of the season and made the decision to pocket the extra coin. Besides the last time they went regional they beat Penrith.

2023-07-26T04:32:00+00:00

Horses for Courses

Roar Rookie


After last year that feeling is going to be there right up until round 27 but the fact is last year they would have lost to the Dogs and Souths if they were under the same circumstances as the last couple of weeks. That been said I feel they will probably drop a couple of games in these last weeks, namely to the red hot Cows and to the Storm.

2023-07-26T04:26:29+00:00

Megeng

Roar Rookie


Doesn't really matter much eh?

2023-07-26T04:24:24+00:00

HarlanKemp

Roar Rookie


Am I the only one who thinks the Broncos season story is still in the second act? That's a tough draw for Brisbane, and it would only take one or two losses for their memories to flash back to last season. I'm not saying it's likely, but the Broncos could honestly lose each of their remaining matches and go out the back door again.

2023-07-26T04:03:03+00:00

Birdy

Roar Rookie


As a hard core, cradle to the grave tiger supporter, I have to agree with you. The spoon is our heritage, it's ours, we deserve it.

2023-07-26T04:00:20+00:00

Abbot

Roar Rookie


How dumb are the Tigers to have 3 home games left this year and you take one to Tamworth against the Rabbits, one “home” game in NZ against the Warriors and the third to Parra Stadium against the Dolphins. Management deserve to be spanked with the wooden spoon on the way out the door!

2023-07-26T03:40:36+00:00

Duncan Smith

Roar Guru


Currently paying $101 at the TAB. Get on quick.

2023-07-26T03:32:45+00:00

Rellum

Roar Guru


Very true, good point. In close seasons the high 20's can be enough though

2023-07-26T03:20:47+00:00

Albo

Roar Rookie


Just not sure 30 points is enough with this 3 x bye season . And especially with a -91 differential and no byes left. I reckon 32 might be the minimum for a spot in the 8.

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