ANALYSIS: Broncos surge into prelim after heartbreaking Papi injury - but were the Panthers the big winners?

The Broncos have ended Melbourne’s long-standing hoodoo, grabbing a first win in 15 against the Storm and taking themselves straight through to a Preliminary Final in the process.

Beyond the result, the game was marred by another horror injury for Ryan Papenhuyzen, who suffered a suspected compound fracture of his ankle in just his fourth game back after over a year out with a broken knee cap.

It was a comfortable 26-0 in the end, though Brisbane toiled for a long time as the occasion – and the rain – got to both sides in an error-strewn first half.

Eventually, the Broncos lethal edge fired, with Reece Walsh and Jordan Riki settling the result in a five minute blitz. 

Kevin Walters now gets to put his feet up for a week, though he might get into his side a little. They were well below the lofty heights they have reached at times this year.

Though they advance to a first Prelim since 2017, it was hard to shake the feeling that the big winners here were Penrith, given the nerves shown early on by the Broncos.

“It was a pretty scratchy game, both teams struggled to get any real flow,” said Walters. “I don’t think they attacked our line too much at all, we had good field position. 

“Our defence is something that we’ve worked hard on from way back in November of last year and it’s slowly coming together. That’s our first nil scoreline, so to do that here is pretty good.

“You could see the resolve at half time. There were a few things we needed to fix up with our attack but our defence was really good. It was important for us to keep defending the way we did and the longer the game went, the more pressure we could put on with our defence.

“It wasn’t a great spectacle as such, but it was a good tough hard footy game, and we haven’t won one of those in a long time, particularly a big game, so that’s a pleasing thing.”

Lucky for them, Melbourne were lower yet. They didn’t help themselves with a raft of handling errors, but also copped a fair wind of bad luck. 

Beyond Papenhuyzen’s injury, Xavier Coates left with a leg injury and they lost four players to HIAs in game, and though they all returned, it caused untold disruption.

Craig Bellamy could be seen ranting and raving in the coaches’ box, and he would have had plenty to get into. In the end, he was left with his head in hands as Papenhuyzen was treated on the field. 

“It wasn’t a great night anyway and that made it a whole lot worse,” he said of the Papenhuyzen injury.

“We’re not going to blame them (injuries) for what happened tonight. Our first half was really poor. We did really well just to be 8-0 at half time, it could have been 20-0 the way we played. 

“I can’t remember the last time we attacked as poorly as we did tonight. Obviously, some of that is due to the Broncos’ good defence, but we were like 17 players thrown together on the night and good luck. 

“We’ve been scoring plenty of points in the last 4-6 weeks and the attack has been humming along, but tonight it was like we just met each other in the dressing room before the game.”

Both sides stutter

It was a tough game, from the push and shove in the first minute to the bevvy of hefty shots that were thrown throughout. It was an intense game, too, with the rain falling and the scores so tight. 

But it wasn’t necessarily a good game. These things can be a little pick-your-poison, and plenty like the tough and intense style, but it was undeniable that both sides were playing well within what they are capable of.

Brisbane seemed to play the occasion a little, conscious of the sort of footy they should be playing in the finals but stunting the best of themselves in the process. 

Walsh made errors in the play the ball, Cobbo dropped multiple balls and Mam was shut down on several occasions by early jams from the Storm defence.

The hosts would certainly have been disappointed to go to the break at just 8-0. There was no lack of field position, but execution was well below Brisbane’s best.

The same was true of Melbourne. They made a raft of errors, plenty unforced, that limited what little pressure they were able to accumulate. 

Xavier Coates’ disallowed try aside, these weren’t mistakes that came from promoting the ball, either. It was a bit haphazard.

Ten penalties before the break told its own story, too. Grant Atkins was blowing the pea out of his whistle, though it was hard to think of many that weren’t the correct call. Both the Broncos and Storm gave him plenty to do.

It’s a little glib now, given that Brisbane are through and the Storm have to go the long way around, but these two are second and third favourites to pick up the crown and, realistically, the gap between them both and Penrith only got wider tonight.

The toilers show up

It might be a reflection of the run of the game that some of those who came to the fore were from the more unlikely faces.

Billy Walters, very much the fourth of four in the Broncos’ spine, was the most impressive Brisbane player for a long time. 

He’s always committed, but brought some serious imagination with dummy half runs and kicking, notably a 40/20 that nearly came off and a lovely dink into the corner when nothing was on to force a repeat set.

Walters showed excellent awareness, an under-appreciated skill in hookers: he only ran four times, but was worth 30m, suggesting he picked the perfect moment on each occasion. 

Tom Flegler was the other unsung hero. He generally plays third behind Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan, but was the equal of both of them today.

The stats would tell you it was a relatively sedate evening for the departing prop, but his impact was just that: impact. Nobody tackled with his intensity and nobody matched his enthusiasm with the ball. Especially in the early stages, Flegler as much as anyone set the tone.

While it wasn’t vintage Broncos 2023, the clean sheet shows the one key area that was up to scratch. The nil was their first of the year – and that has to bode well.

The Storm edge D lets them down

Melbourne have battled all year to find an edge combination that works for them. Justin Olam and Reimis Smith, who had been set and forget as a first choice combo for a long time, are both out of the side through injury and poor form, leaving Tonumaipea and Marion Seve as the centres.

The right edge, where Young Tonumaipea was stationed, went in against the hottest right side attack in the competition and came off badly second best. 

The Kotoni Staggs opener was a classic case of disconnection, with Tonumaipea jumping and Cameron Munster holding, giving the centre two one-on-ones to win rather than being double teamed. 

Walsh found his lane eventually in the second half, splitting the two-man and the three-man again, as did Jordan Riki soon afterwards.

Plenty of good defences have struggled to contain the Broncos’ right, and perhaps they’re just that good that nobody could keep them quiet for 80 minutes. 

But it was hard not to look at the chopping and changing that has taken place in that part of the Storm defence and wonder if their best options were on the field.