“You have to lose a grand final in order to win one”. Have you heard that one before? It’s one of those rugby league chestnuts that gets trotted out every year.
Presumably, it’s based on the notion that only after playing and losing a grand final, can a team have both sufficient experience to handle the key moments in a decider together with the burning desire born of the disappointment of losing a GF in order to go to the next level and win a premiership.
It’s a platitude often handed out to losing teams, however, it certainly worked for the Panthers in recent years, as after going down by 26-20 to the Storm in 2020 they haven’t lost a grand final since. Maybe it’s a case of you have to lose one to win three?
Now, putting the remarkable recent feats of the Panthers aside, how does the ‘lose one to win one’ mantra play out across the NRL era?
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
The stats in this regard make for very interesting reading, particularly if you’re a Storm fan.
Melbourne have lost four grand finals in the NRL era (2006, 2008, 2016 and 2018), and have bounced back to win the following year’s decider on all but one occasion. The only year they didn’t achieve an immediate bounce-back was after their loss to the Roosters in 2018, but they soon made amends by winning the competition in 2020. Melbourne fans will of course be aware that they had premierships stripped for salary cap breaches in two of the years they bounced back, namely 2007 and 2009. Bad luck.
The only other team to achieve an immediate bounce back was Manly, who avenged their 2007 defeat at the hands of Melbourne just a year later, while the Roosters also could claim to ‘win one after losing one’ both in 2002, after losing the decider in 2000, and 2013, after losing to the Dragons in 2010.
In the five other occasions in the NRL era where a team has lost a grand final and then gone on to eventually win one in a later year, the average gap between losing and winning has averaged over nine years.
What all this means, of course, is that the results just don’t support the aforementioned theory, as the close correlation between losing and winning a grand final has only occurred eight times in the NRL era, and even then two of the premierships were bogus.
Here are some more interesting observations:
– On eight occasions, teams losing a grand final missed the top eight altogether the following season (Parramatta, North QLD and the Roosters twice each, plus the Dragons and the Warriors). I wonder where the Broncos will finish next season?
– The Eels have lost three grand finals in the NRL era (2001, 2009 and 2022) and still haven’t gone on to win another premiership. Will they ever?
– The Warriors (2002 and 2011) and the Bulldogs (2012 and 2014) have each lost two grand finals without subsequently going on to lift the trophy.
So, what does all this mean? Well, other than the fact that I’ve clearly got far too much time on my hands, it means that the ‘you have to lose one to win one’ myth is busted.
In fact, if your team loses the grand final, you’re just as likely going to be missing the finals altogether the next year rather than win a premiership.
jammel
Roar Rookie
to be fair, Parra fans aren't at the forefront of most of our minds on a daily basis...lol. The principle that "you have to lose a GF before you can win one" says just that. Ie it isn't that if you lose one you will then DEFINITELY win one.......
andrew
Roar Rookie
Parra fans might disagree.
jammel
Roar Rookie
Raiders lost 87 only to then go on and win 89 + 90. Raiders lost 91 only to then go on and win 94.
jammel
Roar Rookie
might not stack up 100% statistically, but I reckon like many myths there's a fair bit of truth in this one!
steveng
Roar Rookie
With my beloved Souths we've been both ways, example, 2021 and then a BIG ZERO but then again 1969 to win 1970, 1971, definitely 1969 was a wakeup call :laughing:
Panthers
Roar Rookie
From the Cellar to the Loft.
sheek
Roar Guru
Just to be sure, historically the saying is true. Souths lost in 1965 before winning in 1967/68, 70/71. Balmain lost in 1964 & 66 before winning in 1969. Of course, Balmain’s win in 1969 over Souths was the greatest upset of all time. Manly lost in 1968 & 70 before winning in 1972/73, 76, 78. Easts lost in 1972 before winning in 1974/75. St.George lost in 1971 & 75 before winning in 1977 & 79. Canterbury lost in 1974 & 79 before winning in 1980 & 84/85. They lost again in 1986 before winning in 1988. Parramatta lost in 1976/77 before winning in 1981-83. They lost again in 1984 before winning in 1986. Manly lost again in 1982/83 before winning in 1987. Canberra lost in 1987 before winning in 1989/90. Penrith lost in 1990 before winning in 1991. In more recent times the trend hasn’t been as prevalent but is true again for Canterbury, 1994/95, Manly 1995/96, Easts 2000 & 02, Melbourne 2005/06, Manly 2007/08, Easts 2010 & 13 & so on. Perhaps in more recent times, players are more experienced in big moments through the state of origin, meaning they are better prepared mentally for the grand final appearance, ben if its their first occasion. When Souths won in 2014, it was their first grand final appearance since 1971, but they had Greg Inglis who had won premierships with Melbourne 2006, 08 & 12 & Sam Burgess & John Sutton who were enormously experienced. Ditto Cronulla in 2016. So perhaps in the modern era this might explain the saying is losing its lustre a bit. What happens now is teams have a ‘window of opportunity’ with their playing roster that might last only 2-4 years. Either they win a premiership in that window, or the opportunity passes. Think Canberra (2019), Souths (2021) & Parramatta (2022). Even the mighty Penrith lost in 2020 as hot favs before winning the next 3 on the top. Their coach Ivan Cleary has said the 2020 loss was the best thing to happen to them in retrospect. Going forward it will probably happen less frequently (losing a GF before winning one), but it will still happen.
Tony
Roar Guru
Yep, but first they need to avoid being one of the losing grand finalists to miss the eight altogether the following year.
Tony
Roar Guru
Have you ever been swimming on a full stomach? :happy: My favourite is "wear clean underwear in case you get hit by a bus".
Morz
Roar Rookie
It's total old grandma tales right up there with don't go swimming on a full stomach. Didn't Melbourne win the first ever Grand Final they played in? Someone put me right or wrong.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
In his post match GF interview Nathan Cleary tells us in his first GF against the Storm he was rattled when down by such a large score and that it was this experience recollected on field that helped trigger that performance to get his side home this season. So this seems a case of losing one helping you win one. Considering the youth and raw talent of the Broncos you’d confidently expect that final 20 mins to be huge for them experientially in next year’s finals.
blacktown leagues
Roar Rookie
Panthers have lost two 1990 ,2020 followed by wins 91,21 I don't think any hard rules apply here
Tony
Roar Guru
Good suggestion mate. I'll have my team of writers look into it. :happy: Can you suggest a title?
Panthers
Roar Rookie
There’s another story there for you Tony. Teams who have been losing & have been down the bottom of the competition for a long time. Then, all of a sudden start winning & take that all the way to a GF Win. In the one season. How many of those have there been?
Panthers
Roar Rookie
Interestingly, the Roosters Won the 2002 GF, after not reaching the GF in 2001. Then went on to lose both of the 2003 & 2004 GF’s.
Elmono
Roar Rookie
Really the statement sets out a necessary but not sufficient requirement, it does not really promise Grand Final winners success in future years. But is there any evidence that teams with long absences from the GF (say five years) are less likely to win. My first Rugby League Memory is the Broncos winning their first ever Grand Final in 1992 so I have always thought the statement was false. Storm in 2000, Cronulla is 2016 and the Resurgent Dragons in 2010 and Souths 2014 would back this up but this is hardly a statistical analysis.
Tony
Roar Guru
Haha, you may be on to something mate
Phil
Roar Rookie
Definitely a myth Tony. The figures tell the story. It sounds like one of those sagacious quotes from the grand master of RL journalism, Phil R.........., sorry, I won't put his name up.
Tony
Roar Guru
Not for the 600,000 Bears fans apparently out there
Tony
Roar Guru
One of the best old style grounds