It is now officially 2024, so that means one thing – NRL prediction season.
When it comes to top 8 predictions, the safe option is to stick with last year’s teams, but history says otherwise. As the below table shows, there is an average of 2.67 teams swapping places between top and bottom 8 (Now bottom 9) each year.
Another interesting fact is for the last 8 seasons, at least one team has come from relative obscurity to the top 4.
| Year | Into finals | Out of finals | |
| 2023 | 3: Broncos, Warriors, Knights | 3: Cowboys, Eels, Rabbitohs | |
| 2022 | 3: Sharks, Cowboys, Raiders | 3: Manly, Knights, Titans | |
| 2021 | 2: Manly, Titans | 2: Sharks, Raiders | |
| 2020 | 2: Panthers, Knights | 2: Manly, Broncos | |
| 2019 | 3: Raiders, Eels, Manly | 3: Panthers, Dragons, Warriors | |
| 2018 | 3: Rabbitohs, Dragons, Warriors | 3: Eels, Manly, Cowboys |
Looking at the teams that switch places is also interesting reading with Warriors, Knights and Raiders (all 3) the most vulnerable to dropping out whilst Manly (5), Cowboys and Eels (both 3) perhaps indicating they can turn their fortunes around and return to the finals.
To go with averages, I predict there will be a three team switch for the 2024 Season.
Corey Horsburgh of the Canberra Raiders. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
The Drop Outs
The easiest team to predict to drop is the Raiders. The loss of Jack Wighton sees them field an inexperienced and underwhelming spine and coupled with both their frequency at bouncing in and out of the eight, as well as their struggles at winning big in 2023, I like many see them dropping towards the bottom 4.
Next, to go out on a limb, I see the Roosters losing their stranglehold on the top 8 with their slow starts finally catching up to them. Their attack has looked clunky in recent years and they have relied on long winning streaks to sneak into the finals. With star players ageing and too many potential spine players complicating their best 17, 2024 will be the year their luck runs out.
The final team dropping out in 2024 will be one of last season’s fairytales. This time I turn to recent history again as the last two years have seen teams that come from nowhere to make the top 4 in Cowboys and Manly struggle to maintain form and back up a good season.
For this reason, I see the Warriors in danger as opposition teams approach their clashes differently this season. 2023 relied on career years from both Shaun Johnson and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad which will be hard to maintain, whilst Addin Fonua-Blake may have one eye on the exit after his release on compassionate grounds.
The three dropouts sees the Panthers, Broncos, Storm, Knights and Sharks maintain their spots in the eight.
The Replacements
It would be easy to just pick the Rabbitohs, Eels and Cowboys here. They were all well fancied going into last season and just missed out on a spot in the finals. Of these teams, only the Cowboys will make the jump into the eight in 2024. Their roster is strong with good depth and they won’t be dealing with expectation and a world cup hangover this year. They have potential to threaten the top four like they did two seasons back.
Will the Dolphins crack the top eight in 2024? (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Next, Manly will return to the finals after two years in the wilderness. Leaning on history again here, Manly are the club to yo-yo the most in and out of the eight, so it is about time they return.
A much more balanced squad who have strengthened their deficiencies in five eighth and hooker with the signing of Luke Brooks and the emergence of Gordon Chan Kum Tong. They do look a little skinny up front and will need a big year from Taniela Paseka and co. to put a dent in the competition.
Finally, the team that comes from nowhere to secure a spot in the top 4 will be the Dolphins. A team who punched well above their weight last year before tapering off as injuries hit. The Dolphins have recruited very well to strengthen their team and Wayne Bennett may just have something special brewing for his final season at the club.
Recent history tells us there are no silly answers when it comes to picking teams to shoot up into the top 8, the only silly answer is to suggest it will remain the same as last season.
Rob9
Roar Guru
I struggled watching out attack last year. Unforced errors and we’d get down into our opponents red zone and lock up a bit and things would get clunky. Yea the pack doesn’t seem to have the ability to absorb pressure and wrestle control against those good teams. I think AFB is a great signing to turn this part of our game around… but as has been pointed out to me- that’s still a year away :crying:
matth
Roar Guru
Having a stable partnership will help to. Last year he was dropped in late after Milford failed to impress and then his half copped a long term injury after only a few weeks together. I’m expecting a solid spine for the Dolphins this year
Albo
Roar Rookie
I reckon that Tonga tour of England last year will have done wonders for Katoa's game. I think he will be vastly improved in 2024 with a stronger Dolphin's squad to work with.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Sorry Rob9, there is nothing much wrong with the Sharks attack, but I reckon defence is an issue and the Sharks pack to date, just can't dominate the good packs. Hence the recent poor record against top 8 teams. Maybe in 2025 if you get AFB things may improve?
Rob9
Roar Guru
Yea I think we’d still have to be favoured to make the 8. A lot depends on Nico. And obviously a lot of his game depends on the big guys getting it right too and all too often last year they didn’t and our soft underbelly was exposed against the good teams. I think the great thing about AFB is that his strengths cover over what’s been some our weaknesses. Our edge forwards are the strength in the pack (when they’re on) and while I rate Rudolph and BHU, AFB is another class. My hope is that him there to set the platform is going to open up our attack. But as it turns out we still have a year to wait so our success really hinges on Nico and removing the clunkyness that plagued our attack for much of last year. From memory we have one of the better draws so if we can get those things right and have a good run with injuries then a top 4 spot could be within reach.
3 R M
Roar Rookie
Rob your talented side would be getting into the experienced category for games played in the nrl, so they will be in or around the 8 like a fair number of teams.
Rob9
Roar Guru
Heck, it is too! In the Christmas time scramble and the randomness of surprise announcement I thought we had AFB this year. What a bust! Thanks for setting me straight (and bursting my bubble in the process) and apologies above Albo. Slight decline it is. 2025 the year of the Sharks…
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
One of the better analysis of the 2024 8. Who has improved against who? Though with Titans I would say the coach make it a significant improvement.
3 R M
Roar Rookie
At the moment it's 24 nico and 25 AFB
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Great article Louis, thanks. Agree with all you say, though my tip is that there's only a 2 team exchange this season. Roosters I think hang in there - they haven't been out of the 8 in the past six seasons, and last season was uncharacteristically patchy and I just don't see that happening again, especially with the addition of Leniu and Young. Warriors are as reliant on Johnson as Manly are on Turbo or Knights on Ponga. If SJ doesn't fire, they don't make the 8. Knights relied on a career best streak from Ponga last season and have lost their best strike weapon in Young. Eels have got the cattle to be in the 8 - arguably they should be in the top 4 if playing to potential. Last season was interrupted by unnecessary dramas, so I'm predicting they force their way back into the 8 this season. My bold tip to break into the 8 is the Dolphins, who have recruited better than any other team and have the not-so-secret weapon of Wayne. One thing is for certain - my Tigers will be consistent and stay safely in the bottom 4 :laughing:
Nat
Roar Guru
For the first time in a very long time I probably agree with this. I think they have been just keeping up with the evolution of the game for the last few years. Bellamy might just see it as his best time has past as well.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
You could toss a coin on most teams and get a better result on predicting where most teams will finish in 2024 than the punters. Three coaches who were either maligned or not rated for most of their career filled the top three spots in 2023 so that's where the coin has an advantage as well , it doesn't know anything about the coaches. It doesn't know anything about the rosters either but they're more even than the punters think. Manly to win the G.F by 41 points to zip.
Rob9
Roar Guru
'Sharks – Slight downgrade with some player losses and no gains' AFB's not a gain?? With him and 2022 Nico, I think we're title contenders.
rambler
Roar Rookie
Knights one trick pony if Ponga goes down so do their chances. Raiders will tumble down the ladder. Rabbitohs and Roosters in.
Tony
Roar Guru
Great article Louis :thumbup:
Dionysus
Roar Rookie
Fair enough! :happy:
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
Warriors ? who is gonna do Curran's tackling? Won't be Capewell. Manly ? Seibold & Schuster, when the going gets tough they will go misssing
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Big call. I have them locked in. Same as every other year.
WithTheDawn
Roar Rookie
Psch, the Warriors will only be stronger this year, can’t seem them dropping out of the finals (top 4 again may be tough though). If you need a third team to miss I’d go the Sharks (agree on the other two). It is interesting how consistently either 2 or 3 teams have dropped out though. It kind of both shows the consistency of teams making the finals and how frequently it changes at the same time, somewhat paradoxically. Of course many of those swapping in and out are the same teams most of the time.
rakshop
Roar Rookie
The more I look back at 2023, the more I think a few anomalies may have impacted the back end of the season. Both the Warriors and Knights had a very very easy run into the finals, allowing them to gain momentum. The Cowboys and Souths were decimated with injuries for the first half of the season and burnt themselves out. The Sharks cant beat anyone in the top 6. Manly cant beat anyone without Turbo. Also, you have to factor in the bottom five sides - Wests, Dragons, Titans, Bulldogs and Dolphins - fell off the cliff at the back end of the season. Apart from the occasional upset (see Titans v Cowboys), it was almost a gimme 2 points against those teams post-origin. So, I am not sure that 2023 will be a good indicator of what will happen in 2024 finals wise. I think this is going to be a very tight season, with teams from 1 - 13 not separated by all that much. For the record - I have three teams falling out - Raiders, Warriors, Knights. I dont want to diminish their 2023 seasons (especially the Warriors - who had an unbelievable season), but both the Warriors and Knights benefitted from circumstances - an easy draw - other teams competing to make the top 8 playing against each other - individuals (Johnston/Ponga) going on ridiculous form runs. The Sharks have a 50/50 chance. Also - for those who have followed my predictions from last year wont be surprised by this comment - I am also very bearish on the Broncos for season 2024 (after being very bullish on the Broncos this time last year). I would not be surprised to see them come crashing back to the pack. As for the teams from outside the 8 that I would be on - Souths and Cowboys will improve if they stay healthy and the Dolphins have a very balanced squad. The Titans are definitely my roughie to look out for, particularly if the Sharks also drop out. Manly are a maybe. However, I cant see the Eels, Dragons, Bulldogs or Wests contending.