Never has a season preview been filled with such dread. The financial clouds hang over Melbourne like the grim reaper, and it almost feels bizarre that they are set to kick off their season under such unease.
When it comes to doing season previews, usually you aim to try and give your thoughts on where a squad sits coming into the season: how is the coaching, new recruitment, is the team cohesion looking strong etc., and then you try to build an eventual result for said squad.
However, there is something different happening at the Melbourne Rebels this year – this is more than just an average season, more than just the goals of making finals and attempting to challenge for a title.
No, the Rebels are playing for something much more this season – their future. They are pleading their case to continue their existence, they are out to prove to the powers that be that there is enough that has been built over the last 13 years to warrant their continuation.
A Super Rugby club in Melbourne seems like a no-brainer, but when the financial situation is as tenuous as it is reported, nothing is off the table. It is an incredibly difficult task for a team and coaching staff to be asked to fight for when the stakes are this high.
But fight, the Rebels must – and their success or failure effectively looms as the final definitive answer on whether Australia can support five Super Rugby sides. No denying it after this season – we will have a definitive answer based on all the teams.
This question is not just down to the Rebels here – right now, with many Kiwi sides going through substantial change, a massive turnover of experienced players, not to mention a rejig of coaching teams in most franchises, there is no better opportunity for Australia’s five teams than now. If it doesn’t happen now, it never will.
But, in a cruel twist, if it doesn’t happen, it’ll be the Rebels who will take the fall for it.
Coach Kevin Foote has a monumental task this season. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
2024 Summary
Kevin Foote’s time at the Rebels has been one of mixed results. Following in the footsteps of Dave Wessels, Foote has not set the world on fire in terms of results.
In fact, since taking over the team in 2021, he has achieved just eight wins from 33 matches: a winning percentage of 24%. While you can argue the Rebels have been competitive and played some exciting rugby, the numbers don’t lie: they are not winning games.
Even Richard Graham’s tenure at the Reds and Rob Penney’s tenure at the Waratahs were, statistically, better. Both of those coaches were fired early in their respective third seasons for continued underperformance.
But, as Foote enters his third full season in charge, he is now tasked with the near impossible – turn around the entire squad’s form to deliver the key thing he needs – wins. This is a double-edged sword.
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The Rebels, throughout their entire history, have been a revolving door of excellent talent that has come to the city hopeful for results, only to come up with naught. Such squads have looked extremely promising in the past, it is what has kept fans coming back to the Stockade.
Foote has assembled, arguably, the strongest roster ever in the history of the franchise, and he has one shot with them. With several players guaranteed to depart at year’s end whatever the results or future of the club, this is his (and potentially the entire organisation’s) last chance to deliver a positive season.
Squad & New Inclusions
The Rebels have said goodbye to 15 players after 2023’s 11th-placed finish, including experienced heads in Reece Hodge, Monty Ioane, Richard Hardwick, Matt Philip, Trevor Hosea and Cameron Orr, all of whom had been established names at the franchise for several years.
It came in a year the Rebels were often competitive, scoring entertaining tries and asking plenty of questions, but struggled to deliver a complete game performance, and critically, let themselves down in key moments of execution.
They were a side that picked up the equal-highest amount of losing bonus points in a year, and for a side in eleventh, actually had a decent points differential compared to the teams surrounding them. However, they couldn’t win games when they needed to, and execute at critical moments.
Despite this, Foote will retain a mostly settled group of players that he has had two seasons with and will supplement them with nine new additions.
The most notable inclusion is, of course, Taniela Tupou, whose presence gives the Rebels a lot of depth in the front three alongside Matt Gibbon, Pone Fa’amausili and Sam Talakai, to name a few.
Other key inclusions are notable in the engine room, with the return of Lukhan Salakaia-Loto a much-needed inclusion in the second row alongside Tuaina Taii Tualima and Josh Carnham.
The other key signings include in the halves, with experienced head Jack Maunders and Western Force utility Jake Strachan being brought in as cover, and in the centres, with the arrival of talented Reds product Filipo Daugunu and former Hurricanes and Northampton Saints veteran Matt Proctor to steady the backline.
Throw in the ruthless Australian Sevens talent that is Darby Lancaster into the back three and you have a squad that offers depth and critically, versatility for Foote and his team.
Andrew Kellaway scores for the Rebels. (Photo by Graham Denholm/Getty Images)
Squad: *denotes new signing
Props: Isaac Aedo Kailea, Cabous Eloff, Pone Fa’amausili, Matt Gibbon, Sam Talakai, Taniela Tupou*
Hookers: Ethan Dobbins*, Alex Mafi, Jordan Uelese
Locks: Josh Canham, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto*, Angelo Smith, Tuaina Taii Tualima
Loose Forwards: Vaiolini Ekuasi, Zac Hough, Josh Kemeny, Rob Leota, Daniel Maiava, Brad Wilkin
Scrumhalves: Ryan Louwrens, Jack Maunder*, James Tuttle
Flyhalves: Carter Gordon, Mason Gordon, Jake Strachan*
Centres: Filipo Daugunu*, David Feliuai, Nick Jooste, Lebron Naea, Divad Palu*, Matt Proctor*, Lukas Ripley, David Vaihu
Wingers & Fullbacks: Lachie Anderson, Darby Lancaster*, Joe Pincus, Glen Vaihu, Andrew Kellaway
The Rebels will need big things from the likes of Brad Wilkin and the Rebels forward pack. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Strengths & Weaknesses
In terms of sheer talent, the Rebels have some of the most exciting players and options available in Australian rugby. To have four internationally capped props is a dream few teams can claim to have, along with seven more internationally capped Wallabies, an All Black and a player who has made it to the England national side.
In every position, the Rebels have options, from LSL being supported in the second row with talented options in Carnham, Tuaina Taii Tualima and Fijian product Angelo Smith, to a versatile loose forward pack containing captain Rob Leota, Josh Kemeny and Brad Wilkin.
Ryan Lowrens and James Tuttle are also strong options for the Rebels to have at scrumhalf, and they will be paired with Carter Gordon – and how his season will go will be a major factor in whether the Rebels can deliver results.
Discussion around the impact the World Cup campaign had on Gordon has been considerable, and many are concerned that, being effectively exposed on the international stage with no backup and support, could affect his development significantly.
How Carter Gordon will bounce back from the World Cup last year will be a key challenge for both him and the Rebels’ future. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
What is done is done, and it is now up to the player himself to respond: he is still a talented option and one of the best finds in Australia last year, and Foote has done well to support him with strong leadership heads in the centres in the form of Proctor and Daugunu, with the veteran set to be a major support for a young backline.
With a Wallaby veteran in Andrew Kellaway in the back three supported by the likes of Lachie Anderson, every part of the field is seemingly covered: but it is important to not get ahead of ourselves.
The Rebels have been putting out quality squads for years, all to fizzle out. The key weakness the club has is that not only do they struggle to execute game plans, but they lack that winning edge and ability to turn close results into victories. It has been a hallmark of many a Rebels season: feeling like what could’ve been, over what is.
The reality is, that the execution of this game plan is what they need to address more than anything else – and they need momentum quickly. These are two key things the Rebels have struggled with, not just under Foote but during their entire history.
With 2024 be the last time we ever see the Melbourne Rebels? (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
At the Crusaders, that ability to trust in the system and find a way to win is engrained into the club and players – they know what is expected of them. To build that into the Rebels in this season is a monumentally difficult task, especially with the added pressure that every loss and mistake made is one step closer to oblivion.
It is that sort of pressure that oppositions will look to exploit, and it will either generate a tight unit of players – or they will capitulate.
Fixtures
The Rebels will enjoy their first two weeks at home, taking on the Brumbies in their first clash of the season, followed by the Western Force during Super Round. These two fixtures will be critical in the context of their season, and the Rebels will need to hit the ground running if they are to make a maiden finals berth.
Following this, they will head to Albany to take on Moana Pasifika, before returning to Melbourne to face the Queensland Reds. Kids Round will see them head to Wellington to face the Hurricanes and then travel to Sydney for their ‘Weary’ Dunlop clash with the Waratahs, before two weeks at home facing the Drua and the Highlanders before the bye.
This is a very solid start to the season for the Rebels, with several winnable games in quick succession and a great opportunity to build momentum for a finals charge. However, they will have their work cut out when they come off the bye.
Will the Rebels be able to make finals in 2024 and send a message to the powers that be at Rugby Australia? (Photo: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
Week Ten sees the Rebels in Christchurch for a clash against the Crusaders, followed by hosting the Blues back in Melbourne. They will also spend the majority of the end of the season on the road, facing the Reds in Brisbane, returning home to welcome the Chiefs in Melbourne, before a tough final fortnight sees them travel to Canberra and then finish their season in Lautoka against the Fijian Drua.
The Rebels will need to hit the ground running quickly this season. If they cannot enter the bye with more wins than losses their chances of making the finals will be very difficult, such a prospect both players and fans need to entertain could be fatal.
Predicted Finish: 8th
This is it. This is the Rebels’ last chance. Miss it, and that’s it. With an encouraging first half of the season and a strong squad, there is more than enough here to suggest they can squeeze into finals and put in a compelling case for their continuation.
If they don’t, then at the very least, as a national sport we will have our answer as to whether Australia can support five teams. It comes as extremely cold comfort for Victorian fans, who will be in for a nerve-racking season. Best of luck, Stockade.
Rocky's Rules
Roar Rookie
@Die Hard Individual Rebel players are playing for their careers in 2024. All of em are moving to other clubs and all need to maximise their $$ value by having a big season. So good chance Rebels will have their best season ever in 2024 and it'll have nothing to do with club pride, or trying to save the Rebels from demise - they are dead.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
The Reds built their Super Rugby AU winning team around Tupou at TH…
Die hard
Roar Rookie
A 24% win rate and 20 million debt says it all. They were always on a hiding to nothing from the get-go, with the lack of a local comp to build from at hand and a shortage of quality within Australia to poach. No near miss quality cast off's like the brumbies had in their time. 5 teams is finally seen as at least one too many at last. But what are they playing for? Surely not survival. But it seems they are. But can they do it? The Tongan tug boat has never been a player to build a squad around. He's capable in spurts but doesn't bring a fearsome face to the set piece or open field, nor leadership calm to the forwards even. Wasted money from an already bankrupted team to flatter to deceive. I predict they'll win a couple of local deries early days but still be in the red by halfway in the season with most of the quality teams to come. Sadly a slow motion train wreck as finals hopes slide away, which might even be more entertaining than the rugby they play.
piru
Roar Rookie
Hmm, maybe before the erm... incident, that's fair enough
Bobby
Roar Rookie
:laughing:
Mungo69
Roar Rookie
I can see the Rebels being the best Australian team. A lot of their play last year was superb and with a slight improvement in the cattle and some experience for the likes of Carter they should be turning those close losses into wins. Equally I can see them being the worst Oz side. If things don't go their way early, be it injury, form or refereeing,they could turn into a bit of a rabble knowing it will probably be their last year. I am really hoping for the first option because they were my favourite team to watch last year.
Wig1
Roar Rookie
Yes they were looking OK last season I thought they wood go further then the wheels fell off. Force and reps to improve, waratah perhaps poor season
East Coast Aces
Roar Rookie
spot on Bliksem
East Coast Aces
Roar Rookie
Losing Phillip is a big loss. LSL doesn't come close to him. Hodge is a big loss too. Hopefully they ba e a great season and a rich benefactor can step forward and save them. Maybe City Football Group want to expand our if soccer and own a rugby club like they bought Melbourne Heart and turned them into Melbourne City. Sadly there's nothing left in the RA kitty after Hamish and Eddie wasted millions last year and the Tahs are now financially saved by RA
Bliksem
Roar Rookie
Have we learned nothing from axing the Force? Australia rugby is not a fishbowl. If you cut a team, the players don't necessary compete for the few remaining SR spots in Australia they can also sign to play for clubs outside overseas. The players that manage to get these OS contracts are very the very players we wanted to keep - young upcoming talent whose development is now impeded, players that temporary lost form or had a fall out with the coach or star players that are attractive targets for Japanese and European clubs. We will only concentrate talent when 20% of the overseas teams are also cut - which will not happen.
Bliksem
Roar Rookie
The key weakness the club has is that not only do they struggle to execute game plans, but they lack that winning edge and ability to turn close results into victories. This is what you get from players that lack international experience and that has not been part of the system for many seasons. It is hard to see how the Rebels will suddenly close this gap. They need continuity and test quality players that learned to trust and execute the game plan while taking opportunities as they arise.
Rocky's Rules
Roar Rookie
@Piru Yes I agree with you Force did finish well in some games in 2023 :thumbup: But then you've forgotten the previous 14 years when Force were THE experts at snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory :laughing:
piru
Roar Rookie
They’ve been like the Force and have routinely folded in the last 20 minutes of games. You what? Force are generally strongest at the back end of games, it’s kind of been our thing to get blown out in the first half but hang in there to lose by a small(er) margin.
Dualcode
Roar Rookie
Indeed, I thought that was their established halves partnership throughout last season.
Dualcode
Roar Rookie
Indeed we’ll have our answer by seasons end on whether Australia can support five teams, Rebels have no excuses with that strong squad on paper which also needs to deliver on the pitch with more wins and a push for the playoffs with winnable games to start with so there’s no other option. Hopefully game plan executions and combinations are on point as well with Foote wrecking his brains out on that, especially on how badly the Rebels want to stay in SR and not be liquidated afterwards. Fingers crossed your prediction comes true Nicko, because the Rebels are going to need it unless some benefactor comes in like for the Force.
In From The Side
Roar Rookie
Big year for the lads and while I think they'll build a siege mentality over all the issues, I'm not sure that's a sustainable outcome. AS you say full of promises, but never really delivered on them. If they can't deliver this year with that lineup then maybe they deserve to go.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Go the Rebels! Hope they stick it to the Ponies this week and get their season started strongly.
shoremen
Roar Rookie
I predict that Carter will be fine. He has a good head on his shoulders and would have learned plenty from his WC experience. Improvements that we need to see from him are his kicking game and his game management - being able to successfully execute his team's game plan. A crucial skill for a 10. And contributing and assisting his team to win those close ones that they lost last year.
PaddyBoy
Roar Rookie
Haha yeah could go alright in a pinch! Kind of stoked for Kailea though!
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Roar Rookie
Ah! So that's what the Stockade is - AAMI Stadium, also known as the golf ball stadium or bubbledome! The branding chappies really did wring the Eureka Ballarat thing for all its worth. I've received the Rebels email but it doesn't tell me if tickets are available at the gate on the night. Instead there are links to go to Ticketek so they can get their cut. I've been caught out before with turning up and not being able to get in but I will give it a shot again tomorrow. It should be a very good match!