The paradox of parity is that even though we’re told we should want a wide open competition, the NRL seems to be more interesting when there’s a top dog to knock off.
Or top cats as is the current case with the Panthers the undisputed kings of the rugby league jungle.
Fans want parity in the competition and some hope that their team is a chance to win the premiership but the reality is that no matter how strictly the salary cap is enforced, there will never be a level playing field.
The vast difference in professionalism and expertise off the field in the front offices and coaches’ boxes means some clubs will buck the cyclical trends of professional sport in a good way while others will be mired in mediocrity.
Penrith are red-hot favourites to become the first team to win four titles on the trot since the end of St George’s mighty “never before, never again” era of 11 straight premierships ended in 1966.
After seven rounds, their odds with the bookmakers have shortened to $3.25 with supposed contenders South Sydney, Parramatta and Newcastle falling by the wayside and now rated 50-1 shots at best.
North Queensland are clinging on at $19 with the Warriors ($17), Sea Eagles and Sharks ($15), Roosters ($10), Storm ($6.50) and Broncos ($4) rated a realistic chance of ending the Cat Empire in Sydney’s golden west.
Penrith, Melbourne and the Roosters are the only clubs who have lifted the NRL trophy in the past seven seasons and if you stretch that timeframe back to 2012, the only other clubs who have won the premiership are South Sydney, North Queensland and Cronulla.
Not since the Broncos of the 1990s has a team been as dominant as this current Panthers line-up under Ivan Cleary.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Wayne Bennett’s side collected five titles in an eight-year stretch, one carrying the Super League split competition asterisk, with a star-studded roster filled with all-time greats like Allan Langer, Glenn Lazarus, Steve Renouf, Wendell Sailor and Gorden Tallis.
Parramatta and Canterbury each had their golden era in the 1980s, delivering a rivalry while they dominated.
When a club manages sustained success, they quickly go from being a feelgood story to the villains.
The Raiders of the early 1990s and the Storm and Roosters in recent times are other examples of teams that were lauded for their skill and brilliance but quickly became public enemy No.1 with opposition fans as they continued to rack up the wins.
Penrith are now in that category. Every team lifts when they see them on the schedule but Cleary’s cohort remains the competition benchmark.
On the back of Jarome Luai’s antics, which is either a sign of arrogance or confidence depending on your viewpoint, rival fans now have the Panthers high on their list of teams they love to beat, which was never previously the case.
And even though the Panthers have won the past three premierships, a conversion attempt here or a missed tackle there and they could be in a similar situation to Ricky Stuart’s Roosters of the early 2000s and Bob Fulton’s Manly side in the mid 90s who made three straight Grand Finals but came away with just one trophy.
As great as the Panthers have been, it is not a fait accompli that they will win again in 2024, far from it – Brisbane have the firepower, Melbourne have the all-round grit, the Roosters could be contenders if they get their act together while the Warriors, Sharks and Sea Eagles have “on their day” capability of knocking over any opponent in the playoffs.
The flip side to dynasty eras is the unusual seven-year stretch at the turn of the century when for the first time, seven clubs became premiers in consecutive seasons.
It became part of the NRL’s advertising campaigns that any team could be the last one standing as head office trumpeted the open nature of the competition.
Sadly for the spin doctors, this was an anomaly, not the norm.
With the introduction of the Dolphins last year and as many as three new expansion teams being brought into the NRL by the end of the decade, it is going to be harder for teams at the bottom of the ladder to recruit marquee stars from the top clubs.
The Dolphins initially struggled to land a big name in free agency but once they showed they were not going to be easybeats, they quickly snared the signatures of Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler for this season.
Penrith, Brisbane and Melbourne have the nucleus of their elite players signed long term and apart from the odd unexpected departure like James Fisher-Harris last week announcing his return to New Zealand due to family reasons, the lower-ranked clubs are going to have to play the long game to become title contenders.
Wests Tigers are finally tapping into their huge junior nursery under Benji Marshall rather than looking for the quick fix which has had them in a constant boom (if you count ninth place as a high watermark) then bust cycle for the past 12 years of missing the finals.
Canterbury have taken the chequebook route in recent seasons and despite a few encouraging performances lately, the spending spree has done little to bring the glory days back to Belmore.
The Dogs have not finished in the top six on the ladder since 2015 while for the Dragons (2011), Tigers (2011) and Titans (2010), it has been even longer.
Parity is and should always be the goal for the NRL but in reality it is rarely the case and fans love to see a tall-poppy team like the current Penrith champions finally get knocked off.
Panthers
Roar Rookie
It just seems a very strange move , to allow him to go to the Warriors to me. He can’t get experience playing at Penrith? Firstly in Jersey Flegg & then NSW Cup. Real doubts about Cole or Schneider being of any great quality themselves. Toelau has been superior to either of them , when they play alongside of him in NSW Cup .
Albo
Roar Rookie
I think the kid will get some real experience in the NRL via the Warriors until he gets to point of readiness to be slotted in with his brother if he shows he really is up to it ! The Panthers don’t need to throw him in to the NRL fire when they have others like Cole and Schneider already to step into the halves when Luai moves on next year !
Bondi’s Fairy Legs
Roar Rookie
See below
Bondi’s Fairy Legs
Roar Rookie
Enough! Just stop with the broken record! Panthers might have a large catchment… but how much of it is inhabited by juniors (or even people for that matter)? As for the golden child, what about the “pride of the league” Souths?
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Its worse if you look at top 4 finishes in the NRL era. 4 Teams take up fifty percent of the possible spots . The other 50 percent is divided among the other 12.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I find it strange as well. His ''failures'' seem to be ignored but every other coach gets full scrutiny when things don't go well. The excuses or reasons why the Knights didn't do well are valid but the same excuses are also valid for other coaches. Manly for example have had nothing but problems for a decade with a probable superstar jailed , another player dying, their best player constantly injured , AFB doing the bolt, now Schuster ......... yet the coaches get both barrels. He's got a great reputation with most players and this helps recruitment which in turn helps him to win. I read a quote from him a long time back where he was clear that coaches should be judged on title wins. By that standard he's been well back in the pack for a long time.
Panthers
Roar Rookie
I see the Broncos winning it this season. They may then win again next season. I predicted a Broncos GF Win last season & was very close with that prediction.
Panthers
Roar Rookie
I’m really disappointed with that . Was looking forward to Jett Cleary staying at Penrith. Then hopefully joining his brother in first grade. Not sure why Ivan is acting as an agent , to get his son to go to the Warriors? Especially when the Warriors have bought quite a few young halves of late , including another talented young 5/8 from Penrith. Of course, if Ivan is still coaching at Penrith & Penrith do need another half- 5/8. He could always get Jett back at any time. Via the JFH clause. The Warriors would be bound to have to let him return home. There’s also the chance that perhaps the Penrith club didn’t think that Jett was quite up to it? I know that Penrith have definitely lacked a few young halves , after the raids on their players.
London Panther
Roar Rookie
I’m amazed that people still talk about Bennett as such a mythical creature. Most of his success has been in the initial years of Brisbane when they were given the sweetest of saloon passages to success; in the last 20 years he has won a single premiership. He did well with an underdog QLD team, but so did Fatty and getting a team up for 3 games is different to building a great club and culture. I do admit he is doing well with the Dolphins, but I have concerns about how sustainable that is, and he couldn’t get a very talented Souths side across the line.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
Clubs with larger catchments... The Panthers have a junior catchment area larger than Switzerland. It stretches from Penrith to Bathurst to Dubbo and back to Penrith again. The NRL's Bermuda Triangle where any hope of a fair go for the game of Rugby League is lost. A club promoted and protected to serve the commercial interests of the NRL's elite. A game that earnt in excess of $1.2 billion dollars over the last 5 years yet shows no sign of that money being used to develop and improve the game, the rules, the NRL officiating or the grass roots development of the game.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Six teams have won titles in the last decade. Selective use of stats at it's finest B.G. Several other teams went close also.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
That was one of the thoughts I had when I heard this sad news. The man who single-handedly ended any hope of an NRL Draft system, a South Sydney junior, 'Tezza' is gone.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
'the NRL seems to be more interesting when there’s a top dog to knock off' So, what you are saying is that there is actually a commercial incentive to ensure that the fastest growing region in Rugby League dominated areas, with a junior catchment area bigger than Switzerland, gets an unfair advantage to sit on top of the competition? It all makes sense now. #NRL Golden Child #NRL Triumvirate :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:
Albo
Roar Rookie
Just read somewhere today that 18 of their last 26 players to leave the Panthers took up their best contracts of their careers with these new clubs. And I see Jett Cleary just signed a 3 year deal with the Warriors from next year. So, they are developing some handy players for the NRL.
The Barry
Roar Guru
That’s not really what I’m said though. I didn’t say the Storm, Panthers and Roosters have all dominated for a decade. I said only 3 teams have won a minor premierships in the past ten years, that’s just a fact There’s also been an overlap. Melbourne have won two MPs, a grand final and played in three prelim finals during the ‘Panthers’ four years, so it hasn’t quite been Storm / Roosters then Panthers
matth
Roar Guru
It’s not the NRL that prevents a national draft. It was defeated in court back in the 1990’s by Terry Hill. The players’ association would have to come to the party
London Panther
Roar Rookie
I think the 10 year figure is a belies the reality. It has been really 6 years of dominance of Roosters and Melbourne (Penrith were middling at best during that period) and the 4 years of Penrith.
The Barry
Roar Guru
It was you that tracked 1-2 teams dominating back to Parra in the 80s Hasn’t time already told? 10 years and counting of minor premierships, 7 years and counting of premierships between just three clubs
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
The ridiculous situation of clubs managing their own junior development ensures the NRL will not have an equitable competition. Clubs with larger catchments (or even catchments with better playing and training facilities) get the advantage of a larger pool of young talent that is almost certainly on a lower contract than established stars. Teams with catchments that have a higher standard of juniors will play more matches at a higher level and develop faster. When players at these clubs are ready for a larger contract, the club can release them knowing that there are more talented juniors jostling for a contract in their junior system. They effectively get "more bang for their buck". Until the NRL gets with the 21st century and has a national draft system, the league will continue to be made up of the haves and the have-nots.
mushi
Roar Guru
Not sure this current situation is a paradox (or the last article was really Darwinism). The paradox of parity would be that we're trying to overlay it on a game that literally is about determing who is superior to the other. The game itself can't actually function if true parity is achieved because every game would be a draw and couldn't have a final series between 17 teams on the same points and fa where the games never have a winner.