NSW coach Laurie Daley and his players know this is their chance. They’ll be kicking themselves all the way home from Brisbane to Sydney if they don’t beat Queensland in State of Origin I.
If they can’t make their advantages count at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night, they will only have themselves to blame.
I’m not tipping the Blues by a ridiculous margin or anything like that, and I’m not saying the Maroons can’t win – only a fool would.
State of Origin Game 1 coverage
» Blues annihilate Maroons to steal series opener
» State of Origin scores, highlights, result
» WATCH: James Maloney opens the scoring with an early try
» WATCH: Commentators forget where the game’s being played
» WATCH: Jarryd Hayne and Cooper Cronk trade moments of brilliance
» WATCH: Mitchell Pearce knocked out in sickening collision
I’m not trying to make up reasons why NSW will win, either, just in the hope that they do. I’ve tipped Queensland way more often than NSW over the years and for good reason – because they’ve generally been better.
I just think the Blues have got the edge this time, even away from home. They should win and if they don’t they will have a lot of soul-searching to do – even if the Maroons have played out of their skins to get the ‘W’.
A few reasons why, starting with Mitchell Pearce.
I wouldn’t have picked him as the NSW halfback, but I’m more comfortable with him being there than I have been for most – if not all – of those times he has been there in the past.
He has been through some things away from football that would have put his job on the field into a clearer perspective for him. Winning this game will be very important to him, but he’ll understand that life doesn’t revolve around the outcome of the match. He can approach it relatively calmly.
Purely in a footballing sense, much has been made of the fact Robbie Farah won’t be out there as NSW hooker, with the suggestion that Pearce – and therefore the Blues – will be better off as a result.
That might seem harsh on Farah, but it’s true. Had Daley and his new adviser, Peter Sterling, gone with Farah again at this veteran stage of his career it would have been a big mistake.
There was no point in bringing Pearce back unless he knew he had genuine authority when it came to the running of the team and he’ll have that. New hooker Nathan Peats will fit right in to the team’s plan.
(Supplied)
Pearce doesn’t have to be the best player on the field for the Blues to win. He just has to do his role and do it well. If he is man of the match it will just make the challenge less difficult for NSW, but they can do it without Pearce putting in a Superman effort.
Queensland are missing some great players, either through injury (Johnathan Thurston, Greg Inglis and Matt Scott) or the plain fact they decided to go without Billy Slater, and with them all out the retirement after last season of Corey Parker comes into sharper focus.
Jarryd Hayne is back for NSW. It doesn’t matter what position they’ve picked him in, or whether you think he’s fit enough for Origin, the bottom line is he’s a big-game player. He’ll go out there believing he’s going to rip it up and he may well do that.
(AAP Image/Dan Peled)
Anthony Milford is a potentially great Origin player, but this could be a difficult debut for him as Queensland five-eighth. The Blues will go looking for him, big-time, to try to run over the top of him in attack and force errors when he has the ball.
NSW have more genuine game-breakers, including Hayne, James Tedesco, James Maloney and Andrew Fifita in the starting side.
The Blues have got a more dynamic bench as well, with Jack Bird, Wade Graham, David Klemmer and Jake Trbojevic opposite Michael Morgan, Sam Thaiday, Aidan Guerra and Jacob Lillyman.
Whether NSW were waiting or not for that day when a few standout players from those great Queensland teams of the past decade were not there waiting for them – all at the same time, rather than the odd one here and there in a gradual build-up – it has arrived.
If they can’t win this game under those circumstances it’s going to be difficult for them to comprehend. I don’t think it will come to that.
The Maroons are the Maroons, you never write them off, but only one team can win and the Blues have got their shot at glory. It’s up to them to take it.
Birdy
Guest
Happy to see the blues put you in your place Kreig. Really feel for you though living in the Far East (NZ) at this time of year.No SOO coverage. If anything it makes you appreciate the freedom of the west. ( home sweet home Australia).
Swannies
Guest
Haven't we heard all of this before?
Kreig
Guest
As a Queenslander, I'm a HUGE Maroons fan, now living in NZ (scrambling each year to find a pub that could be bothered to stay open and show the game on a Wednesday night. It's not on free tv over here). Like every other Queenslander, I believe Slater is one of the greatest fullbacks to lace on a boot. Along with Lockyer. AND Darius Boyd. What I think Boyd has over both Slater and my all-time favourite player, Locky, is that he can have a significant influence in multiple positions on the park. I would not be surprised to see him in the 6 or 7 jersey for my beloved Broncos next year. And everyone getting all in a tizz about Slater being left out, it seems that Maroons and Blues supporters alike seem to be overlooking the fact that in 2014, when he played, Queensland lost. In the past two years - without him - they've won. Slater would have done a great job. Of course. He's scored what I believe to be the greatest Origin try of all time. But Boyd hasn't just played caretaker in the last two years, waiting for Billy's return. He has made the No. 1 jersey his own. He has added an element of playmaking from the fullback position that I don't think Slater either possesses or has has required to show, given who he plays with at club level. Queensland made the right choice. Darius Boyd is the Queensland fullback. QUEENSLANDER!!!
qwetzen
Guest
Does anyone know why Nein wants these 20:20 starts? Please tell me that it's not just to give their suited boofheads time to rattle off 500 cliches.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
And yet QLD haven't won a Game One at Suncorp in five years.
kk
Roar Pro
Mrs Max thinks I'm crazy. For decades I resisted the hype of Origin because it failed to compensate the clubs for use of players. Now I'm like a 14 yo. She wears a double blue polo shirt with matching scarf. 7 hours to kick off.
Raider 89
Guest
Absolutely Steveng. I to would rather just follow the Telstra Premiership. Players priorortise Origin over Their club to often. More effort goes into winning a premiership than a Origin Series.
Birdy
Guest
Max, I hope Mrs Max has her blue jumper as well. Better lose the white joggers. Remember Changa. The last decade could have been your fault.?
Birdy
Guest
Sorry Con, I'm not perfect, i fell in love with xxxx straight out of the ice on a hot summers day in Townsville over 30 years ago. I feel guilty but how do you explain true love.?
Bunney
Roar Rookie
I'm not certain where this confidence in a NSW win is coming from. For certain, Qld have some question marks - how will Milford go? The form of Myles, Lillyman, Napa and Guerra; O'Neill in the centres etc. But NSW have plenty of questions too. Will Maloney play like he did in SOO 2016, or like clubland 2017? Can Pearce be up to scratch in SOO? Will Fifita / Maloney / Graham / Jackson et al give away too many penalties? Will Hayne lift? How will Peats go? There's questions on both sides, with lots of unknowns. It could go either way.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Ha ha,I've been reading The Roar all morning at work mate!
Sideline
Guest
Honestly, as far as preparation goes, I wonder how much work is getting done in NSW and Qld today. I know I'm not focused on work.
Sideline
Guest
I reckon a lot will be said of the outside backs, regardless of the result. If there is a stutter from either wing, even in a wining side, I'd expect to see Slater and/or Holmes rushed in for the next game. Darius and Holmes on the wings, with Slater at the back seems a lot safer.
kk
Roar Pro
Birdy, Preparation is so important to the success of your team and it's about time Laurie's men appreciated what we go through and deliver a win. It is important not to shave before the game and be attired correctly. I have a light blue jumper, navy tracks and white runners. The evening meal is restricted to a small steak,medium rare, with broccoli. Served three hours before kick off to ensure no reflux in assisting with the early carries and defence commitments. I will not take the top off a stubby whilst the game is in play as one should not drink whilst the heart is accelerated beyond the red line. I share your sentiments re Hayne and Maloney, Add Dugan. Enjoy the night.
Con Scortis
Roar Guru
Hope it was a cartoon of NSW brew, Birdy. None of that XXXX stuff that the Maroons guzzle.
steveng
Roar Rookie
My prediction is, that SOO will be the same old thing with the same results. The SOO series need an urgent resuscitation, if the blues lose again then these series are surely 'OVER'. Surely SOO is getting “long in the tooth” and would lose all interest. I won't predict and I will wait until these series are over, as I do every year, and yawn afterwards. My interest is more focused on the depleted NRL comp than these series that mean 'NOTHING'. Go the Rabbits, as they are just as depleted as the blues are in the SOO contest lol
Bugo
Guest
I'll be watching live at Megs' Aussie Milk Bar here in Newport, RI USA. Go the Blues.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Agree Greg, the Blues have a great opportunity tonight. They have been given a gift in the form of no Slater, Holmes and Hess along with injured greats out. The first games are always close and tonight will be no different. Pearce and Maloneys kicking game needs to be very good to build / maintain pressure. If these two play well it will go a long way to winning.
Birdy
Guest
You can only imagine what its like bring a NSW man living in Qld this time of year. And a son born here , a mad Qld supporter. Lots of pressure on Pearce not to make silly mistakes, Maloney will do that for him. ? I like Maloney, he could make 10 mistakes then run in the winning try. TOgether the game is in their hands My biggest worry is Hayne, I know he will turn up tonight but if he doesn't its curtains for us and possibly a panic reshuffle for origin2. My prep is done, picked up carton yesterday , blue dog has her nsw jersey, i can't do much more.
Oingo Boingo
Guest
I think they'll give em a decent touch up, with Pearce having a blinder. See you all tomorrow as we search through the Rubble for the remains of the QLD team.