The National Rugby League is the most even competition in the world. And that’s not anecdotal. It’s fact. Mathematics prove it.
Early this year a mathematician from University Technology Sydney, Stephen Woodcock, posted a piece in The Conversation detailing results of a study into global sporting competition trends.
Using a bunch of ‘N’s and ‘D’s, and a complex equation like that one Matt Damon worked out in Good Will Hunting, and which the Harvard maths faculty answered with vigour, our man concluded that the odds of a repeat premier in the NRL – since the salary cap arrived in 1990 – were $3.80 against.
Doesn’t sound that high? It is.
The AFL, meanwhile – with multiple repeat premiers – was $1.06.
Others such as Serie A, La Liga, NBA, MLB, NHL, and 20-odd other comps including WNBA, IPL and Davis Cup were similarly long odds-on.
But the NRL has had 12 different premiers in a 16-team comp since 2000. And that makes it a global anomaly.
What can it all possibly mean?
For one, the salary cap is doing its job – with a vengeance. It’s been 25 years since Brisbane Broncos – with 16 Origin players and John Plath – went back-to-back in ’92-’93. (And we don’t count them going back-to-back in ’97 (Super League) and ’98 (NRL) because we just don’t, okay? End of.)
The salary cap has killed off any notion of ‘dynasty’ (again if you don’t count Melbourne Storm’s four grand final run from ’06-’09 and we don’t either, which is another story of the salary cap, the highly-effective, highly-vexed, method for evening out the national rugby league comp.)
Anyway the cap’s working and doing what it’s meant to, which is give everyone a shot every year.
(AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)
And now and again there’s headlines because these silly Third Party Agreements have been rigged because you would get that given a player’s worth what someone’s willing to pay them, and people can find ways around artificial payment ceilings as they have since the Greeks invented money.
Another another story.
Anyway – the salary cap is working, and the NRL suits front the cameras occasionally and say Why yes that is good, aren’t we good, like Donald Trump the great gormless galoot taking credit for the Nasdaq despite not knowing how it works. He will find time to learn in prison.
Anyway! Yes, the NRL’s salary cap is working perhaps even better than they intended, and they say it’s the envy of world sport and that’s … I suppose that’s good.
Isn’t it?
It’s good if you mean ‘even’. Twelve different premiers in a 16-team comp in 18 seasons is very even.
But good?
Is such a really, really even competition that good?
Doesn’t it mean that the best players are just moving around between the teams?
Doesn’t it mean that after you’ve spent a few years building a team capable of winning the comp, that your players will be more valuable and thus you can’t hang onto them even if you’ve got the money to keep ‘em?
Doesn’t it mean fans watch their club leaking players and getting new ones like signing contractors at work?
What was wrong with clubs enjoying long periods of greatness?
The Raiders had a dynasty from 87 to 94, oh yes. Big Mal, Loz, Sticky, Clydey, Badge, and a coterie of guys around them from Sean Hoppe to David Furner to Noa ‘the Knees’ Nadruku, well – they were fast times at Ridgemont High.
In the 1980s Parramatta and Canterbury won eight premierships in ten seasons. The Raiders won one, Manly the other.
And that was still pretty good, wasn’t it?
If there was a salary cap in the 80s the Eels would’ve won the first of their three premierships and they couldn’t have kept Kenny, Sterling, Grothe, Cronin, Ella, Price, Bugden, Wynn, Muggleton and you’d be leaving out a couple like Paul Taylor and Graeme Atkins and Graeme Olling together.
Those guys would’ve been spread out through the comp.
Same as at Canterbury. Whether Berries or Bulldogs, Entertainers or Enforcers, they would’ve won the 1980 or ’84-’85 or ’88 premierships, and Terry Lamb, Steve Mortimer, Steve Folkes, Paul Dunn, Steve Gearin, and all the brothers Mortimer and Hughes would’ve been off playing for Balmain or Wests or the Illawarra Steelers.
I know some did anyway. But the Bulldogs won comps with a lot of the same players. They had a dynasty. And footy was still good.
Today there’s a cap and these bloody Third Party Agreement thingies which means paper bags at ten paces because there’s never been a way to put an artificial ceiling on wages, a person’s worth what someone else is willing to pay them, and clubs are about clubs and players are about players and agents are cowboys.
And here we are, with the world’s most even comp, maths says.
Brainstrust
Roar Rookie
Its a case of cherry picking statistics. Relying on a sudden death final series to add the statistical variation. 2 minute analysis on minor premiers reveals you have how many repeat minor premiers about 10 recently. Given the NRL has a fixed salary cap as well, even the competitions without salary cap its usually soft like in the MLB or there are exemptions etc.
Major Bumsore
Guest
As a coach, His sides defence has improved immeasurably since he took over the reins, in comparison to the sieve like efforts of his predecessor. Try assists , line breaks and points scored have all increased , he has regained the dressing shed and will be offered an extension on his contract at the end of his current term . All the attributes of a quality coach.
peeeko
Roar Guru
How is he the rainmaker? Got any stats?
bbt
Guest
How will Storm progress with exemptions for juniors? We are at least a decade away from developing juniors who can play NRL.
shane
Guest
rubbish bernie
Bernie Vinson
Roar Rookie
The raiders blew the salary cap big time in the late 80's but were never punished
The Barry
Roar Guru
That’s a really interesting point McT For all the griping about TPAs they don’t seem to have had too much of an impact. “We should get rid of TPAs” is a good barometer of someone not knowing what they’re talking about.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yeah...the recent exodus of players to rugby has been alarming.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
I'm more than happy to see different teams win the Big One at the end of the year,such as the Rabbits,Cowboys and Sharks. It's all very nice to win 11 in a row, however this monopoly doesn't install faith or expectations for other teams' fans, when domination of one team over a couple or a few years,is in operation. Providing me with uncertainty over predictability for me, means the salary cap(though not perfect) and yes the odd officials' stuff up, is working to a great extent. Now we have 8 teams in the final series,all within sneezing distance of each other ,in terms of winning on the day and points differential. And Brisbane with all their final advantages ,managed to sneak in the end of the 8. In addition the predicted finalists before a ball was kicked in anger, in the main ,were way out of kilter. The salary cap in some measure, is reinforcing the view, of the great unpredictability of sport.
President Trump
Guest
Not to worry Duncan. I, your commander in chief, will ensure this injustice is rectified. I have told my office to look into the situation. Much like South African farmer’s land, your rights as a Roarer are being taken away from you by the fake news merchant, Matt Cleary
Bernie Vinson
Roar Rookie
Roy Masters has written in many articles that there are some refs who make sure the game is entertaining...(nudge, nudge)
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
The only thing the salary cap does is keep the competition relatively even. Which sounds like a good thing but I'm not sure that it is. It does nothing to reward junior development and nothing to reward building a club to excellence. It says if you achieve success then rather than getting others to try and emulate it and rise to your level, we're going to instead have a system that brings you back to the field. It essentially rewards mediocrity and punishes excellence.
Albo
Roar Rookie
But that was mostly due to the rorting of the salary cap that kept all the "immortals" intact for a few years to establish that dynasty.
President Trump
Guest
Wrong Matt Cleary! I have never seen such a critical error in judgement since the Hillary server investigation. Like my friend Putin, who is a strong leader, just like me, I will lock up my political opponent and ensure the FAKE NEWS media like yourself know that we are making America great again! Trump out
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
You mean someone who doesn’t like the Queen?
Bernie Vinson
Roar Rookie
Even in some respects. The Third party agreements make sure the Storm, Broncos are in the finals every year and the SOO break means the lesser teams have a better chance against the star teams as their players are rested or are backing up. The free movement of players (so players may play for 3 clubs in just 6 months) means rebuilds are quicker but fans cant build any momentum in teams recruiting players to build team harmony. So ideal for TV with the your ball -our ball regular change of possession but predictable which is why they introduced the stripping of the ball rule and possession to the kicker if the ball goes into touch from a restart. perfect for TV but not good for building club spirit
Nat
Roar Guru
Does that argument counter each other. Mr Gore will be the first to highlight the disparity between Canberra and, well, everyone else, they were one pass from a GF appearance in '16. If you run that same calculator over who has made the finals in the last 18yrs you'll find that every team has been more than competitive but also failed at some point. All but Melbourne have missed the finals since 2010.
Matt H
Roar Guru
Nice.
Rellum
Roar Guru
Yes, there needs to be more encouragement for junior development. If nothing else it helps build that local identity.
Shane
Guest
yes