In the aftermath of the Ewen McKenzie saga, some of the cooler heads at the (then) ARU would have been focused on the legal fallout, others the cultural damage whilst some of the more astute may have been concerned with the stability and reputational damage of the ARU.
Regardless of the truth as to what really went on, the playing out of rumour and innuendo with potential court cases is a nightmare for any code and has the potential for lasting damage.
Let’s face it, once a Prime Minister has been necked to save the ‘team’, a precedent has been set and the temptation to remove a leader who isn’t performing to satisfy short term problems has been proven time and again to alienate the supporters, regardless of which team you are on.
So, in a weak negotiating position, the ARU made their bed and gave Michael Cheika the power to run the team as he sees fit. On paper, he ticks the boxes with success at Leinster and the Waratahs.
From the ARU’s position, why would you let a coach of his pedigree go and coach elsewhere?
What next for Michael Cheika and the Wallabies? (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
In his history is a partial clue as to why RA are prepared to overlook the years of disaster since the 2015 world cup.
At Leinster, Cheika took over a team in disarray before guiding them to a semi-final win in his first season – as he did with the Wallabies in 2014/15. In the following years, success eluded Cheika at Leinster (just as it did with the Wallabies) other than a Celtic League title until new blood was installed in the coaching ranks.
The changes resulted in the 2009 Heinekin Cup Final win and the 09/10 Celtic league title.
Fast forward to Cheika’s time with the Waratahs and, again within a season, he has the team on top and followed that up with second position the next year, before bowing out in the semis.
Of note during his time with the Waratahs is his creation of combinations in the back line including Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Adam Ashley-Cooper and Israel Folau.
So, in the above can be seen the seeds of where we are today. Initial success built on extracting more out of players through motivation and common goal seeking (remember the golf clubs?) but the inevitable decline when the underlying tactical deficiencies are exposed.
He has tried for a long time to unearth the next nugget of gold.
Cheika is clearly seeking the next Stephen Larkham, a fullback who became one of the greatest flyhalves Australia has ever had. In my mind, it explains the reason he consistently places players out of position, has inexplicable selections and then discards overseas players who may have improved their game, but don’t meet his expectations.
Beyond that, Cheika doesn’t seem to be able to evolve his game plan.
Cheika needs smart coaches and innovative people around him. Personally, I don’t think the coaches he has have demonstrated that and he has opted for a balance of unearthing talent and trying the crazy in the hope that it will eventually click.
The problem Rugby Australia faces now, is that what is driving away supporters and should have run its course by now is still going on, and the flashes of brilliance when it all comes together are now seized upon by Cheika as vindication.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
The reality is that Rugby Australia suffered reputational damage during the McKenzie debacle. After Salta, I opined that Cheika is going nowhere, as Rugby Australia need to display support, despite overwhelmingly poor results, of a coach having his way as a sort of cathartic cleansing and reset of the reputation of the governing body.
I suspect they are looking long term at last. What future coach would want to lead a team where the players have got rid of them and who’s governing body necked the leader to save the team when results weren’t going their way?
Cheika even stated he was aware of it with his ‘Collingwood’ analogy.
Rugby Australia are showing they can hang tough despite what Cheika is doing, for the sake of a future coach.
If, in the meantime in Japan (like 2009) Cheika resurrects the results, it will seem like a masterstroke. If he doesn’t they can quite rightly say they supported him through thick and thin and he had every chance of doing it his way.
Today, and I quote, “You have to be unequivocal, that’s the way we’ve been, quite consistent. We’re supporting him absolutely,” Rugby Australia are demonstrating just that.
As much as I don’t like Cheika and think Rugby Australia have done the game a massive disservice in recent times, in supporting Cheika I think they are right.
We are consigned to the vagaries of Cheika for the near future, to ensure our long term future.
CJ
Guest
I fully understand why Cheika got the gig and why he was renewed after the WC. That has all changed. Things have completed imploded.
Lara
Guest
Didn't Cheika whisper in the RA ear to bet $6 million recently on a good thing . Cheika a very smart man n the RA top dogs are waiting patiently for their windfall , like all good punters/ suckers.
jack
Roar Rookie
nicely put Sir
jack
Roar Rookie
well said john
Buk
Guest
Great illustrations, Lano, very compelling reasoning. Unfortunately you seem to have 'nailed it' as to RA's position.
Diamond Jackie
Roar Rookie
The situation is actually very simple. RA has no money and hence can't pay Cheika out or enter a costly court battle if they sack him. They probably know they cannot win the world cup in our current situation, with Cheika. But they don't necessarily think any other coach will have the answer either. So..... status quo. No payout. No court battle. No world cup and start again post world cup with a new coach and save the $$$$. A bloody shame.
Internal Fixation
Roar Rookie
Great point. I agree this is playing a part
Baldy
Roar Rookie
Having been present in both Port Elizabeth and Pretoria I believe we are only marginally behind both SA and NZ. The 3 small 'things' I would like to see changed are BEALE to 15 or bench. Reason - he drifts sideways and it would not matter who was outside him there is simply no room. HOOPER and CHECK to sit down and work out when and where on the field to go for goal or touch. Reason - in Port Elizabeth twice we had kicks in front at 20-12 but went for the try with 17 minutes to go. Finally I'm sick of seeing HODGE trying to mark 3 men on defence as is borne out in out last few Tests - BLAKE for GREY would fix the problem in one session
Sunny Bull
Guest
100% Keith ... I watched Foley run 3 second man plays in 10 minutes while the Poms ropa-doped us then countered on every error. Killed us, then played 2 completely different game styles in the following 2 weeks just so Eddie could rub it in. Cheika should have been sacked straight away. But the real point that’s being skipped over here is that the ARU can’t afford to pay this pirate out. That’s what really hurts.
Taffausie
Roar Rookie
Thanks Glider, very informative.
Lano
Roar Guru
You’re an intelligent observer!! ????
Hammertime
Roar Rookie
Can't help but wonder if this is not the other side of " player power". If Mackenzie can be got rid of by the players, surely Cheika can be retained by them?
jcmasher
Roar Rookie
Yeah he was but there was a strong “not overseas” push at the time as well and that counted against him. Pity
Machpants
Roar Guru
I wish the ABs could play like Leinster, when they need too! Am amazing team
Lano
Roar Guru
That's a fact, the WBs disrespect for the Ref in Salta was disgraceful.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Yes Keith, or if I may paraphrase - RA cannot sack Cheika because it’s not actually his fault. It’s RA’s ‘fault’. The sackings that are required are: - culture of players influencing coach selection (McKenzie affair) - top down trickle assumption (myth) - the myth of grassroots development (when we miss the finals of the WC we will have little but grassroots left) So Keith, yes we are on a downward spiral. And yes, we cannot get out of it by sacking the coach.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Wish you were wrong Lano. I really do. But there is little evidence to say you are not. We see sunk cost bias in selections and six million dollar 7’s etc but the big SCB is in the board’s choice of coach and the autonomy clauses in his contract. To be clear I like Cheika, and was pleased he got the job. But the autonomy afforded by his contract now looks to be unbalanced, just like our team. And it is our team which some seem to have forgotten. It is certainly not the property of RA, much less the property of a sole selector/coach. So yes, Lano we have sunk costs that we cannot seem to ‘unsink’, the most costly one being that one we sunk into a brilliant motivator operating without a potent tactic and selection panel.
Armchair Sportsfan
Roar Rookie
I think the most galling thing about all this for aussie ruby fans is the seeming total lack of contrition from anyone within either the team, the coaching staff or rugby australia. i get that they have to present a public 'face' on these things. But i think some more ackolwedgement as to how poor the wallabies have seemed for much of the season, would go a long way to apeasing the fan base. to have the coaches and RA say thing like 'we're happy with the plan' or 'we just need a few little tweeks' or 'the players just need to commit more' is just an insult to paying fans. if the captain and the coach came out and said publically that they know there have some big issues and they are completely reassessing their approach (rather than bullsh!thing us by saying they are going well and just a few little thing are not clicking), then I know if would buy them a bit or respect from me.....
Shum
Roar Rookie
What do you expect when you have players who play out of position on a regular basis. You have a coach who thinks that what I am doing is right. Yet he has to Rip the team a new a/hole for them to perform. There is obviously no respect between the team and management. That maybe why they are 7th in the pecking order. The AB's worked out a long time ago that you need to have players who can play their positions well that they will be very effective. Yes I am an ALL BLACK support but have lived in Aussie a very long time and frustrated the Wallaby's cannot get it together.
Cadfael
Roar Guru
Where I do agree, I can't see RA admitting they made a mistake in propping up the Rebels.