If the ICC team and player world rankings were the definitive guidelines to World Cup chances, Aaron Finch’s troops will be wasting their time turning up in England.
Despite winning their last eight ODIs with no Steve Smith, David Warner, Mitchell Starc, and Josh Hazlewood, Australia is still only the fifth best ODI team on the planet behind England, India, New Zealand, and South Africa.
Finch is the ‘best’ Australia batsman on a lowly-ranked 21 from Usman Khawaja 25, while Pat Cummins is the seventh-ranked ODI bowler from Hazlewood on 12.
On those recognitions, the best Australia could hope for would be to win the thanks for coming award.
But they are a better outfit than that.
Aaron Finch of Australia bats. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
For starters, Khawaja (769 at 59.15), and Finch (634 at 52.83), are the two leading ODI batsmen in the world this calendar year ahead of world number one Virat Kohli’s 611 at 55.54.
Peter Handscomb is sixth with 479 at 43.54, Glenn Maxwell ninth with 464 at 41.63, and Shaun Marsh tenth with 435 at 48.33.
Among the top 12, Maxwell is second only to Chris Gayle in the strike rate stakes with 126.51 to 134.17 as the leading master blasters.
The only disappointment is another potential master blaster in Marcus Stoinis on 242 at 30.25, which has him outside the top X1, and just in the 15-man World Cup squad, which should look like this, in batting order:
Aaron Finch (c), David Warner, Usman Khawaja, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell, Shaun Marsh, Peter Handscomb to keep, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Jhye Richardson, and Adam Zampa with the extra four Alex Carey, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood and Ashton Agar.
It was hard to leave out Stoinis, Coulter-Nile, Kane Richardson, and Jason Behrendorff out of the squad, as the attack isn’t as strong as the batting.
Cummins will be the undisputed spearhead with 17 ODI scalps this year at a miserly 14.29, an economy rate of 4.39, and a strike rate of just 19.5 – the last three stats the best in the world this year.
Zampa has taken an extra wicket with 18 at 32.16, and a good economy rate of 4.39 for a wrist spinner, and would welcome some spin support from either Lyon, or Agar, whose career economy rate is a respectable 5.75, while Jhye Richardson’s 17 wickets have cost only 21.23 apiece.
Starc has a welcome habit of recovering from both injury, and lack of form when the big games come around, and there’s nothing bigger than a World Cup.
To prove the point, four years ago the big bloke was Player of the Tournament with 22 wickets at 10.18.
Australia’s Mitchell Starc. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
But there is a potential problem in Australia’s quest to retain the coveted trophy – their batting dot balls.
In the five ODI whitewash over a depleted Pakistan in the UAE, dot balls were alarmingly high on wickets that were a road.
In the first at Sharjar, won by Australia by eight wickets;
Dot balls – 124
Rubs 1-3 – 127
Fours – 17
Sixes – 6
Extras – 20
Balls faced – 294.
Second ODI at Sharjar, that Australia won by eight wickets:
Dot balls – 126
Runs 1-3 – 120
Fours – 19
Sixes – 8
Extras – 14
Balls faced – 287
Third ODI at Abu Dhabi, Australia won 80 runs:
Dot balls – 142
Runs 1-3 – 125
Fours – 23
Sixes – 3
Extras – 7
Balls faced – 300
Fourth ODI at Dubai, where Australia scraped home by six runs:
Dot balls – 140
Runs 1-3 – 126
Fours – 23
Sixes – 4
Extras – 7
Balls faced – 300
Fifth and final ODI at Dubai, Australia by 20:
Dot balls – 131
Runs 1-3 – 102
Fours – 39
Sixes – 6
Extras – 22
Balls faced – 300.
Total those stats:
Dot balls – 663
Runs 1-3 – 600
Fours – 121
Sixes – 27
Extras – 70
Balls faced – 1481
Dot balls on road surfaces in the UAE accounted for a massive 45 per cent of the total deliveries, which begs the question how much more difficult will it be for the Australian batsmen to rotate the strike on England World Cup tracks that will turn?
Fix that, and there’s no doubt Australia is the team to beat.
SirWesMondo
Guest
Everyone has an opinion, that's fine. I'm a big fan of Stoinis, people need to be mindful of the injury he's been playing with plus he's still feeling his way at the level. A part of me would like to see them take it on without Warner and Smith. My preferred. Warner Kahwahja Finch S. Marsh Maxwell Stoinis Handscombe Cummins Starc Zampa Hazelwood Emergency, Behrendorf in case Starc fails, Coulter Nile, Lyon, Wade I'd love to know why he's unpopular, but handy as.
SirWesMondo
Guest
Everyone has an opinion, which is fine
JamesH
Roar Guru
They could shuffle Finch down to 3 if they really want Warner to open, but probably not Khawaja. Ussie loves the ball coming onto the bat to kick start his innings. If he ends up coming in after the powerplay when the spinners are bowling then he can get bogged down. I don't think Stoinis can bat any lower than 5 to be honest. He takes too long to get going to have him coming in towards the end of the innings. That's been the big knock on his batting all summer. We really need him to find form in the warm ups!
Barney
Roar Rookie
I take your points. That said I think both Finch and Khawaja will be suspect in England against early swing...both need everything in their favour. Stoinis can’t bat above Maxwell, agree 6 and 7 are not for Marsh.
Sgt Pepperoni
Roar Rookie
Yep Tman thanks for popping up just to take a shot at the Aussies I actually respect the nz cricket team. Some great players who always punch above their weight as I was just saying in a thread a month ago about wc chances Nevertheless you know nothing about test cricket and can just pop back in your box. NZ hasn't beaten Aus since 2011 (worse record than the wallabies) and got to number two by beating Zim, Ban, WI, pak Let me know if you need further clarification on why match fixing deserves a life ban compared to ball tampering or underarm. Cheers
TheCunningLinguistic
Roar Rookie
What’s your point? That’s not on him, he’s done his role.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Not really, just popped over to see how the under armers are doing lately. :-)
JamesH
Roar Guru
Because Agar broke his finger in the BBL and hasn't played any cricket since. David's predicted squad and lineup are miles off base. Carey will keep. It's a done deal because (a) he's been keeping all summer (b) he's the VC and (c) Handscomb has never kept in an ODI. Agar won't make the cut - he's simply not in contention at present. His injury was just poorly timed. Shaun Marsh at 6 and Handscomb at 7? No way. Stoinis will be in the side because they want the bowling insurance. And I don't think they'll shunt Khawaja down the order after he has exploded as an opener. Finch Khawaja Warner Smith/Handscomb Stoinis Maxwell Carey Cummins Starc Richardson/Lyon (depending on the pitch) Zampa S Marsh Smith/Handscomb Coulter-Nile Richardson/Lyon Hazlewood to come in if Richardson's fitness is in doubt.
Paul
Roar Guru
A team to beat, completely agree. The team to beat, I reckon the Indians at least would tend to disagree. Don't forget we choked when the tournament was held in Australia in '92.
Ouch
Roar Rookie
So, when Australia went to play ODI’s in SA with a bowling attack of Mennie, Worral etc they were meaningful games? That was experimentation at best. If i was cynical i’d say it was money-spinning and fulfilling ICC obligations. Ditto almost all the other series we’ve played. I would doubt we’ve played our strongest ODI side since the last Champions Trophy. Really, the only ODI series that matter are the World Cup and to a lesser extent, the Champions Trophy.
Christo the Daddyo
Roar Rookie
Possibly. It's just that I'd be really reluctant to muck around with a combination that is in fantastic form right now.
Christo the Daddyo
Roar Rookie
But if we're going on current form, the top order isn't collapsing. So David's point is redundant.
U
Roar Rookie
Most of his scores come in losing efforts
TheCunningLinguistic
Roar Rookie
Why? Avg 48 last year, strike rate of 93. Why on earth would you leave him out??
TheCunningLinguistic
Roar Rookie
Mitch Marsh is an excellent One Day cricketer, don’t let his recent poor Test form fool you. Much like Shaun, he excels in this format, and is probably (due to Faulkner’s form slump) the only ODI standard all-rounder we have. Plus, he can accelerate dramatically if required. Who here remembers those three consecutive sixes off Steyn?! Beautiful!
David Lord
Expert
Simple answer Paul, there have been 11 ODI World Cups, England’s been in three finals and lost the lot, Australia in seven deciders, and won five. Fact – England, and South Africa, choke at World Cup time.
VivGilchrist
Roar Rookie
The Aussies beat India in the third game with Dhoni playing.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Great post Paul.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Neither Lyon or Agar have demanded a spot and only one can be included given the 15 man limit. Stoinis will have to be named simply because we can't rely on Maxi bowling 10 overs every match. But I'm happy if another allrounder leapfrogs him (assuming they demonstrate form before the squad is finalised. I don't think Smith, Kawaja, S.Marsh and Handscomb can all play in the 11 at once. Smith is not an automatic any more given the outstanding form of the others. He needs to find form in the IPL.
Ads
Guest
Finch and Marsh on a seaming English wicket in the first 10 overs are sitting ducks. Khawaja to open is almost a guarantee, if Warner is to come in to open, would move Finch to 4 (bring him up to 3 if good start, Smith if early wicket). Marsh will be backup to start, he will get games though, long tournament.