Three games into the season and the big picture isn’t a whole lot clearer that it was a month ago.
The good news is, what looked preseason like it might be a bit of a Friday night stinker, suddenly shapes as a pretty interesting match-up.
The Pies are hot favourites, despite having dropped two of their first three games – in their defence, the Cats and Eagles might just be the teams to beat this season.
The Bulldogs are coming off their first loss of the season and a strong performance tonight would give them a world of confidence.
Most Dogs fans would have been delighted if you told them their side would start 2-1, though they might have furrowed their brow if you’d suggested their first loss would come against the Suns.
These sides last met in Round 10 last season at Docklands. The former Footscray jumped out of the blocks, kicking five of the game’s six first-quarter goals, and even held a three-goal halftime advantage before Collingwood put their foot down and kicked eight goals to none after the main break to run away 35-point winners.
Brodie Grundy dominated that Friday night, finishing with 26 disposals, seven clearances and two Brownlow votes.
Adam Treloar was the main beneficiary of Grundy’s dominance, earning the umpires’ three votes thanks to 40 disposals and two goals, while Tom Phillips (36 disposals), Scott Pendlebury (32) and Jack Crisp (32) all racked up touches as well.
The Dogs looked to three big men to challenge Grundy that night, but none of Tom Boyd, Jackson Trengove or now-Magpie Jordan Roughead were up to the task.
Tonight the responsibility will be on promising but raw 21-year-old Tim English, with some relief from fellow 21-year-old Josh Schache. It appears a task too great for English, so it’ll be up to the Bulldogs’ midfielders to give him all the support they can to keep their team in the contest.
The Pies’ midfield power is well known. In Grundy, Pendlebury, Treloar, Phillips, Steele Sidebottom, Taylor Adams and Dayne Beams, they boast a group that is the envy of most of the league.
The Bulldogs are no slouches in that area. Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae form a one-two punch as good as just about any, and Tom Liberatore has returned from his second knee reconstruction in exceptional touch.
Lachie Hunter, Toby McLean (used mostly as a forward this season), Mitch Wallis and Josh Dunkley form a deep and capable collection of ball-winners.
They can’t afford any passengers tonight. Collingwood’s midfield might be packed full of stars, but the one who shines brightest lurks in their attacking third.
Jordan de Goey has picked up right where he left off after last year’s finals series. He has ten goals in three games this season and the Dogs don’t have an obvious match-up for him – to be fair to them, few teams do.
Hayden Crozier could get first crack, or perhaps skipper Easton Wood, though the premiership captain probably lacks the athleticism these days to match De Goey in either the air or on the ground.
De Goey has good company up front. Mason Cox will provide headaches in the air, while Jaidyn Stephenson, Josh Thomas and Jamie Elliott all play taller than their size suggests without giving much – if anything – away when the ball hits the deck.
Diminutive Dog Caleb Daniel’s smart and skilful ball use makes him a crucial cog in his side’s transition game, but there’s nowhere for him to hide tonight when it’s time to defend.
If the supply is good and regular, Collingwood should keep the scoreboard ticking over.
At the other end, the Bulldogs’ attack is a lot of potential but has at least as many questions as answers when it comes to what it will deliver week to week in 2019.
Aaron Naughton is as exciting as any young key-position player in the competition, but he’s still a bit of an unknown as a forward. Darcy Moore is one of the few players in the league who can match Naughton’s aerial prowess.
Every Billy Gowers moment of brilliance is matched by a head-scratching blunder, Schache still fades out of games too often and milestone man Tory Dickson’s best days are behind him. McLean and Dunkley are midfielders masquerading as forwards.
Collingwood’s back six is without doubt their weakest third, but there’s nothing for them to fear here.
Both sides have made one change after their Round 3 defeats.
Jason Johannisen returns for the Dogs at the expense of young key defender Lewis Young, which leaves Zaine Cordy as their only true key defender as long as Naughton anchors the attack.
Johannisen will provide much-needed line-breaking run for the Dogs, who too often bogged down against the Suns’ zone last week.
For the Pies, Travis Varcoe is back in the side after a week out of the seniors, while tagger Levi Greenwood has been dropped.
The Bulldogs aren’t without a puncher’s chance tonight, but they’re fighting out of their weight class against a team with realistic premiership aspirations.
Collingwood by four goals.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
His last qtr was sensational, first three poor.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
They are different players Jon boy. De Goey is way better forward, Bont way better midfield atm.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Footy is more than goal averages IAP, you have much to learn.
Aligee
Roar Rookie
Maybe Collingwood took it easy or were not switched on but they really didn’t look that great. Cox should just have a shot, if he misses sobeit.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
True, and one premiership from only dozen finals appearances in the last billion years doesn’t make an AFL worthy club. Right Trevor?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Geez Dingo you basically predicted the game and result. Hope you cashed up.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Beams late out... this could be a cracking game
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
De Goey is hugely talented and will probably improve in time no doubt, a goal kicker but has a lot of improving to do to match Bont's all round talent. Not in the same class yet by a long way.
User
Roar Rookie
And a premiership player, 2 things Bont has over degoey
Paul D
Roar Guru
Your man Bont only averages 1 goal a game and plenty call him a superstar
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
After Grundy he’d be my choice of Collingwood players I would want.
IAP
Guest
Ooooo, a touch over 2 goals a game, what a superstar...
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Watch the highlights from last weeks WCE v Pies game Anon and youll see Mason Cox kick a goal from the fifty.
Paul D
Roar Guru
It's probably to cater to the Sydney audience - they're pretty used to not fronting up to games of football and preferring to watch on TV at home after all
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Which three games is that IAP? He was in our best for all three finals and kicked 48 goals in 21 games during the season. If you are going to make such erroneous statements like that then why should we have any weight in your comments?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Happy to be flat track bullies Anon if it gets you to top four like last year. All you need to do in season is qualify with a double chance. Doesn't matter if you don't beat any top teams during the year at all, you just need to beat them in the finals.
PommyJo
Roar Rookie
North is the new Carlton.
anon
Roar Pro
Bit of flat track bully about them.
IAP
Guest
The problem with the Pies connection between the midfield and forward line is that their midfielders can't kick. Treloar and Adams especially couldn't hit the side of a barn.
anon
Roar Pro
Pies midfield is powerful, but Buckley has just never been able to harness it. They overachieved last year on the back of an easy draw. I agree about Cox. Can't take a team seriously when that guy is your focal point. His skill level is appalling. I remember him completely messing up a simple banana kick from 20m out last week. Missed everything. I could make that kick 8/10 times. I think most under 14's could as well. Not to mention he can only kick 35 metres. You just want to stop him getting on a lead and putting his arms out in front.