Tasmania has a rich heritage and a long history as an Aussie rules state, but other codes are moving in as the AFL dithers – and they may lose the code war as they do.
When it comes to Tasmania’s AFL ambitions, the lack of competition from other codes has been a big selling point up until now.
But other codes are now taking advantage of the untapped market.
The BBL have the Hobart Hurricanes, who were crowned minor premiers last season. Their performances on the field and their ability to draw good crowds on a regular basis are frequently cited by other codes to demonstrate that teams in their own respective sports would also be viable in Tasmania.
The next code to move in will be hockey as part of Hockey Australia’s new Hockey One league, which will include the Tassie Tigers. While hockey might not be the biggest sport in Tasmania, it isn’t completely unknown either.
In the previous Australian Hockey League, Tasmania were crowned champions in 2014 and they have the Tasmanian Hockey Centre in Hobart as an existing venue to play at.
Baseball also looks set to reach out to Tasmania. As the Australian Baseball League expands, CEO Cam Vale has indicated his support for a Tasmanian franchise to be linked to Taiwan, an island half the size of Tasmania but with a population just under that of Australia.
“The purpose of the branding and strong link with one country like Taiwan does build the business model for Tasmania,” Vale told The Examiner.
“What comes off the back of that is a broadcasting deal to ensure all those games are shown not only to Taiwan, but Asia, Australia and, also really, the rest of the world. That would really give us the commercial model to make it successful to introduce baseball into the state.”
While hockey and baseball may be smaller sports, there are a few more mainstream ones that may get better support from locals.
The Hobart Hurricanes aren’t the only team in Tassie. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
The most likely at the moment is basketball. A bid by a locally backed consortium to enter the Southern Huskies into the NBL looks very strong indeed.
The main strength of the bid comes from their plan to buy and renovate the Derwent Entertainment Centre, which they would then own and operate themselves without having to pay stadium fees. This would give them a unique advantage over their rivals on the mainland.
They also plan to invest $90 million in a sports, entertainment and hotel complex around the site so that the team becomes financially self-sustaining.
As well as an NBL team, the consortium has also indicated that they would be open to owning teams in other leagues, specifically mentioning Super Netball and the Australian Ice Hockey League, as it may be possible to turn the court into an ice rink in the NBL off-season to accommodate ice hockey.
Ice hockey clearly isn’t a mainstream sport in Tasmania, but netball is.
Crowds at Super Netball matches have been solid and TV viewership is increasing, with the grand final attracting a TV audience of over a million viewers last season. Netball appeals to sponsors wanting to target a different demographic than other codes and looks like it has a strong future.
But perhaps the highest profile bid other than the AFL one is that for an A-League side.
The FC Tasmania consortium are backed by Harry Stamoulis and Robert Belteky who are very wealthy and who both have a real passion for the sport. The original bid outlined plans to renovate North Hobart Oval into a rectangular configuration for $15 million but these plans have now shifted towards building a permanent ground instead at greater cost.
The stadium deal they had negotiated with the Tasmanian Government had a break-even point of 5000 spectators, which would match the crowds for previous A-League matches held in the state. For context, those numbers are similar to crowds for Canberra and Wollongong.
But even if FC Tasmania aren’t admitted to the A-League, a team in a national second division is practically a certainty. So Tasmania will have a professional team one way or another.
Hawthorn shift several games a season to Tasmania, but the AFL now faces some stiff competition on the Apple Isle. (Photo: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
There is a great deal of interest from other codes who clearly see something worthwhile in the island state that the AFL don’t.
The Hurricanes are already a proven success while the Tassie Tigers are confirmed for Hockey One next season. The baseball bid linked to Taiwan also looks like a lock.
The Southern Huskies NBL bid looks rock solid if they can buy the Derwent Entertainment Centre and they clearly want Super Netball and AIHL teams to provide extra content under the same banner.
When it comes to the A-League bid, things are a bit more up in the air, but the business case and financial backing behind it looks pretty good and if they don’t get an A-League licence there’s always the second division as a back-up.
It seems that the other codes have beaten the AFL to Tasmania and now it’s too late for them to do anything about it.
Back when the AFL expanded into the Gold Coast and Western Sydney there was a window when Tasmania was an untapped market and could have been a one-team state.
But by the time the AFL eventually decides to put a team in Tasmania, it might be too late and it is conceivable that Tasmania would have teams in as many as seven different codes by then, plus women’s sides.
The AFL now risks being crowded out.
clipper
Roar Rookie
I would suggest, josh, that all codes in all states are always in a war for market share and to keep that said market share. Maybe it wasn't the greatest area to place a team, but the flip side is that it didn't affect the Swans membership or attendance numbers, so each fan, few though they may have been, was a new addition.
josh
Guest
Why would the AFL put a team in NRL & Football heartland if not to start a war for market share ? They have clear air in Tasmania and nothing competing with them, Hobart Giants has a great ring to it & they wouldn't be losing money hand over foot for no return.
Gyfox
Roar Rookie
Of course GWS should move! The Code War only exists in Sydney. And then really with NRL trolls & media.
Brainstrust
Roar Rookie
So many are willing to show Tasmania some love with no cost , but Tasmanias politicians are paying millions to for the state to be tied and up and whipped by the AFL. Unless you can get the policiticians to avoid paying for it the AFL is still dominant in Tasmania.
Raimond
Roar Guru
predictable
Scando
Guest
The AFL has let the game rot in Tassie and has realised it's now or never to rescue. The local standard has dropped and near to no players are making the draft where previous years there has always been a steady stream. Teams are struggling to field teams. The North and Hawthorn arrangements are on the nose as its finally dawned on the govt and public they have been taken foe mugs. Having grown up there and go back multiple times a year it's the growth in junior soccer that is clearly evident.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
It is far easier for other sports to enter a small market, they don't have a bare-bones cost base of $35m a year. Hockey has been there before, made no dent. There was an NBL team in Hobart, which ignored, and was ignored by, the northern half of the state. It had a following until the NBL killed off all the smaller clubs in their ill-fated attempt to become a major league. Australian Football is going rapidly backwards in Tasmania, largely as a demographic thing and also the AFL itself cannibalising actual Tasmanian football. The one team towns are losing all the playing age population and suburban teams aren't coming p in their place. The TV viewing is still stronger per capita than any other market (but worthless in media rights terms) and that won't be changing any time soon.
J.T. Delacroix
Guest
And hopscotch too. It’s really taking off down there. Staggeringly popular in some parts. The AFL needs to take notice. The clock is ticking.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
More real fact and truth than the article
Nick Symonds
Guest
Then again, the AFL is quite popular as well - FROM THE AGE Average audience figures over the past three years, both capital city and regional, reveal around 50 per cent more Tasmanians than Queenslanders are watching the indigenous game on TV. In 2018, the average viewer number for Tasmania was 31,000, while the equivalent number in Queensland was 21,100. The difference was even more stark the previous year: 39,300 versus 24,700 in 2017. That’s 59 per cent more Tasmanians than Queenslanders watching AFL broadcasts. When the audience sizes are measured relative to each state’s population – Queensland’s 5.1 million compared to Tasmania’s 515,000 – the relative interest levels in the game are fully exposed. The Tasmanian appetite for televised AFL matches is 12 times greater than that of Queenslanders: an average 6 per cent of Tasmanians are watching AFL telecasts at any time (not vastly dissimilar to metropolitan Melbourne’s percentage) while the corresponding figure for Queenslanders is less than 0.5 per cent. Even adjusting for the Queensland numbers being almost entirely from its south-eastern pocket, where the state’s two clubs are based, the 3.5 million inhabitants of that region are only one-tenth as likely as Tasmanians to tune in to the AFL. - https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/afl-forget-queensland-more-tasmanians-are-tuning-in-to-the-footy-20190510-p51m19.html
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I put something similar but post wasn’t allowed. But Gomer McLachlan is not a leader. He keeps talking about why Tassie CAN’T have team. He is the boss, why can’t talk Tassie up. There are many died in the wool fans, in Tassie, and all he can offer is negatives.
Nick Symonds
Guest
Correction: The ABL had 19 million viewers across the season with 78% of viewership on YouTube across the first round of matches coming from Taiwan. - http://www.theabl.com.au/news/article.jsp?ymd=20171120&content_id=262242660&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_abl
TWLS
Guest
Well it is about time Tassie grew up and joined the big boys. All of this opposition activity will test the waters a bit in regards to the strength of our game. Dont worry the A League GF here in Perth this weekend has ticket sales now over 45,000 - Does that mean the end of the world for Aussie Rules -Would not think so.
J.T. Delacroix
Guest
Has the writer of this nonsense ever been to Tasmania? What a load of rubbish. This has got to be some kind of wind-up, surely.
Nick Symonds
Guest
"The “risk” is very small that any other sport will be able to challenge Australian Football for popularity in Tasmania." - I'm not suggesting that any one code will challenge AR for popularity by itself, but 7 collectively might make things more difficult. If you have 7 different codes each getting say, even just 2,000 fans behind them then it starts to add up. So, it might give the AFL another reason to ignore Tasmania again. If the AFL wait until 2026 or later to put a team in then it might be too late. As it says in the article you provided it says itself that, "Wilkinson’s board has also vowed to lift participation numbers, which have dropped by 15 per cent over the past decade." It also mentions that, "Currently just over 40,000 Australian rules players are registered, with soccer numbers now at 20,000 and growing as that code in Tasmania lobbies for a club in the A-League." Then it goes on to state: "Basketball magnate Larry Kestleman has been a regular presence in Tasmania over the past month with a view to establishing a team in that state." According to an ABC news report, there's been a "36 per cent increase in participation [in basketball] across Tasmania over the past four years that has heads turning." As participation across other codes increases, participation in AR is dropping. It would be a bitter irony if the AFL having previously said that Tasmania wasn’t a viable location economically came back in the future and said: “Sorry, but Tasmania is already a crowded market and supports too many teams in other codes. An AFL team just wouldn’t be viable now.” I wouldn't put it past them. - ABC NEWS REPORT: Tasmania's bid to secure a team in the NBL riding an unprecedented popularity in the game https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-01/southern-huskies-bid-for-nbl/10061786
TimeForTasTeam
Roar Rookie
I think concussion is one of the biggest threats to AFL growing in Australia let alone Tasmania. Where I live in N/W Tas soccer is growing rapidly and both my sons 10 and 13 have chosen the round ball over AFL this year (both still play school footy). Many parents I talk to have leaned towards soccer as the risk of injury and the discussion in the media on concussion. Hawthorn v GWS only had 15 odd thousand at the G (dont quote me) if that's acceptable Tasmania will do that week in week out. Tasmania will have a team in the future who knows A-League might beat them.
The Joy Of X
Roar Rookie
@ Nick Symonds and your comment "The AFL now risks being crowded out". The "risk" is very small that any other sport will be able to challenge Australian Football for popularity in Tasmania. Australian Football has a strong 150 year history in Tasmania, and it is a heartland state. In Tasmania, there are currently 91,000 Tasmanians who are members of AFL clubs (most probably 3 game memberships, I assume). The AFL has given clear signals recentlty it wants an AFL team based, full time, in Tasmania- perhaps within the next 10 years, when the next Broadcast Rights end. Possibly a 20th team, to deliver a lucrative 10th game each week? https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/no-longer-if-but-when-push-grows-for-a-tasmanian-afl-team-20190322-p516mb.html How have you quantified your "risk"? 10%? Why have you ignored the above link from journalist Caroline Wilson?
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Southern Huskies? Is there a Northern Huskies?
Paul D
Roar Guru
Not sure given the recent events with Foxtel that anyone will be expanding anywhere, not unless they can develop an income stream that doesn't rely on TV rights to prop up the competition.
Wayne
Roar Guru
Canberra can't get an A League side, Tassie never will either. Unless they move Tasmania to the mainland as part of Melbourne. The AFL want Hawthorn out of Tassie, and likely give it to North Melbourne. Tassie likely won't have a stand alone team in my life time