While Australia have already qualified for the World Cup semi-finals, two points against South Africa on Saturday night looms as a huge incentive.
An Aussie win in their final pool match will ensure a first-place finish, and a likely semi-final against New Zealand. Vitally, it allows them to avoid a semi-final with England after their overnight win against the Black Caps.
Should Aaron Finch’s side lose to the Proteas, however, and India defeat Sri Lanka as expected, they will drop to second and face England at a raucous Edgbaston – an intimidating venue where the hosts have won their last four ODIs.
Avoiding a dangerous England outfit isn’t the only carrot being dangled, too. The clash against South Africa is at Old Trafford which, as it transpires, is the same venue for the first semi-final.
As such, a win would ensure Australia can benefit from the familiarity of playing back-to-back games at the same ground. Further, it allows them to remain in Manchester, where they have been since the start of the week.
The double-barrelled incentive means there is little chance Australia will rest any players for Saturday’s game. Hypothetically, even if top spot was a cast-iron guarantee, selectors wouldn’t have afforded Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins a break anyhow.
(Photo by Action Foto Sport/NurPhoto)
By the time Saturday evening rolls around, it will have been a full seven days since the Aussies’ last game against New Zealand, which they won by 86 runs at Lord’s. As such the clash represents, if anything, an opportunity to remain fresh before the semi-final.
Having played the same XI in the past two games, it would appear unlikely the selectors will seek to change a winning formula. Should the pitch at Old Trafford be dry, there could be an argument to play Adam Zampa alongside now-preferred spinner Nathan Lyon. But in the interests of continuity – and maintaining a likely XI for the semi-final – Jason Behrendorff is likely to play again.
A constant source of debate on these pages, selection in Australian cricket – especially in ODIs – has been head-scratchingly curious in the last 18 months.
But in the interest of fairness, it’s important to note that in picking Lyon and Behrendorff, the selectors have got it spot on.
And when you consider the lifeline they threw Usman Khawaja earlier this year, plus the faith shown in Alex Carey, it has been a profitable few months for Greg Chappell, Trevor Hohns and Justin Langer.
Saturday’s game against South Africa also presents an ideal opportunity for out-of-form players to establish some confidence before the knockout stage.
Glenn Maxwell has at times looked dangerous this World Cup and is reportedly striking the ball as clean as ever, but the reality is he is yet to pass 50. An extended time at the crease – for Maxwell, that means anything in excess of 35 balls – would be welcome going into a semi-final.
On a more worrying level, Marcus Stoinis has made just 65 runs in five innings at a strike rate of less than 85. Currently holding up his end with the ball, Stoinis’ lack of explosiveness at the back-end of the innings cause for concern.
While reports suggests a strong sense of positivity emanating from the Australian camp, they won’t underestimate a South African side who beat them on home soil just eight months ago.
While it’s been a disappointing campaign for the Proteas, a nothing-to-lose mentality could be dangerous if their match-winners fire.
Finch and co know the incentive of a win, and will play with that firmly at the front of their minds.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
They do like throwing spanners in our works though. Not sure this will be enough motivation but they do have the opportunity to force us to play England instead of NZ. That would be a nice little parting shot from their perspective I suspect.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
Having Eng and India slug it out is biggy too Paul. If we can win against the Saffers we effectively knock either India or England out in the process. Too big a bonus to ignore imo.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
Is it fair to say that wrist spinners have struggled in this WC? Seems that way to me but I haven't checked all the figures. I just recall the two Indian guys going for heaps of runs and very few wickets and I think Rashid has had a similar battle. Zampa doesn't seem exempt from the general trend so playing him would be a gamble imo. Hoping that the pitches suddenly become more conducive to wrist spin V's just playing Lyon who we can be fairly sure will bowl tidily. At this stage I think I'd go for the safer option and stick with the pace men + Lyon.
Sgt Pepperoni
Roar Rookie
Well said but you're underestimating the power of spite
Jim Prideaux
Roar Rookie
Sure, but if they can only get up for spiteful dead rubbers, then they’d be better off playing park c grade moaning about that time Burnley put on a bad spread for lunch. Surely they’ll be up for all of their games, especially ones that count - and this one doesn’t.
Off cycling
Guest
They should believe they can beat anyone, but you'd much rather have an easier match in the semis as it means there's more room for slightly under performing (especially as ODIs tend to be a bit more random than most sporting contests). The other problem is that out of matches so far out of the likely top 5 (Australia, India, England, New Zealand, Pakistan) there has been one washout (India NZ) and one match won by the team batting second (Pakistan beating NZ). The other 8 matches have all been won by the team batting first. I fear that at least one of the semi finals or final will be pretty much decided by the toss. Out of the top 4 teams if the toss is critical it feels like only New Zealand look vulnerable if they win the toss, making facing them a priority. As an aside does anyone think the pitches giving more of a contest between bat and ball is to blame for not giving an even contest between innings as they deteriorate more, and actually roads might be preferred if they reduce the importance of the toss?
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
The most important question is "who will be given the task of looking after the ball?"
Sgt Pepperoni
Roar Rookie
Due to the recent history between the teams
Jim Prideaux
Roar Rookie
Every game is a danger game really, but I have to ask, why would South Africa be up for this more so than their other games, particularly those when their place in the tournament was on the line?
Paul
Roar Guru
the Santner move was 2 inches from being brilliant.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
KC, if AUS were to go with that, I’d have Finch above Carey. His proven ability to score big runs and at a fast rate would put him squarely in the middle order for me (on the assumption he isn’t opening). Smith at 3 should be a given, irrespective of shuffling of openers, or trying to accommodate UK in the line up.
anon
Roar Pro
The time to tinker was 12 months ago. Time to just back the players in. We're on top with one loss.
McBumble
Guest
I predicted an Aussie win before the tournament started. The Stoinis inclusion continues to baffle me. AUS are literally playing with 10 men. Stoinis is a park trundler at best. Hit and giggle. No heart or spirit. Let's hope the semi finals bring a bit more dander to what has been a sub-par tournament.
KenoathCarnt
Roar Rookie
Selectors have picked a perfectly balanced team in recent games but this is their last chance to just tinker with the batting lineup based on recent performances. I would go with something like this. Warner Khawaja Smith Carey Finch Maxwell Stoinis Khawaja needs to open to fully succeed and having Finch at 5 means he doesnt have to face the new ball and come in agaisnt spin which is his strength.
AREH
Roar Guru
More frugal and dependable I guess as we approach a sudden death stage
Jeff
Roar Rookie
I just can't see Saffers being primed. 1) out of the WC, 2) got a win in their last game, so happy now, 3) an 8 day break before AUS where "down time" has probably become entrenched in the psyche, and 4) no ODIs for 5 months after AUS; no incentive to maintain form or push for selection.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Yep, AUS to go in to the SAF game with the attitude of "we must win this match". The rest will then, hopefully, take care of itself.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Yep, I understand the reasoning behind opening with Santner, but it backfired. And Ferguson out for Southee was a considerable negative, though I probably can't blame Southee given his lack of game time recently. To NZ's credit, I thought they pulled back 50-80 runs from what England looked like getting half way through.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
ka-BOOM!
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Stop taking the bait Chris!