This week there was an article which tried to point out the statistics proving just how much Darius Boyd is struggling in 2019 at the Brisbane Broncos, in his first season as a player without Wayne Bennett as his coach.
It stated, “He misses more tackles than any other fullback in the game.
“He averages only 94 running metres, way behind James Tedesco (171), Tom Trbojevic (164), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (167) or Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (167).
“He has scored only one try compared to Tedesco (8) and Nicoll-Klokstad (6).”
These statistics are being used in a manner which is completely foolish. Let’s start with the simple one first – tries scored. A player’s ability to score tries is not indicative of their ability, as on most occasions it requires a huge amount of teamwork.
Secondly, Boyd has rarely ever been a prolific try-scoring fullback. In fact, over the 14 seasons that he’s played in the NRL, he’s only bagged more than nine tries in a season on three occasions:
- 2006 – 11 tries (19 games on the wing, where he scored seven tries, and eight games at fullback, where he scored four tries)
- 2008 – 13 tries (12 games at centre, where he scored two tries, nine games on the wing, where he scored ten tries, and three games at fullback, where he scored one try)
- 2013 – 11 tries (all 26 games played at fullback)
All stats following are only from games played at fullback. If we break down his try-scoring prowess, season by season, we can see that he struggles to register more than four tries a year in the number 1 jumper.
Next, we’ll look at his running metres, courtesy of the original article. While his number of runs is down on his career average of 11.95 per game, he is averaging 10.15 this year, which is better than the last two seasons.
Also on the improve is his average metres gained per run – 9.87 in 2019 compared to 9.59 in 2018 and 9.26 in 2017. His average metres gained per game is also up in 2019, currently at 100.23, up from 2018’s 92.41 and 2017’s 92.15.
The final statistic to look at is his missed tackles. There is an increase over recent years, but he is still missing under two tackles per game, which isn’t as dire as it sounds. Also, not all missed tackles can be attributed to the failure of one player, which makes it a less-than-ideal statistic with which to criticise Boyd’s defence.
He is clearly struggling, but in areas that aren’t recorded statistically – decision making and commitment. It can be argued that he isn’t trying as much to effect or even attempt tackles at times this year, which can be partly down to slower decision-making that can impact his positional play in defence.
As we can see, statistically Boyd has been reasonably consistent and perhaps even better than in recent years.
Now we move onto the next aspect raised in the article, whereby he was compared to other fullbacks.
First of all, let’s look at tries scored, because that was oddly used as a metric to determine form.
What we can see here is the Boyd is more consistent, but that Tedesco, Tuivasa-Sheck and Kalyn Ponga are more erratic with their try-scoring.
All four are also making over 100 metres per game when playing at fullback, with Tedesco and Tuivasa-Sheck both having slightly lower averages this year compared to 2018, while Ponga and Boyd are improved.
Looking at the total metres gained per run, we can see that very little separates the quartet, and that all four also have very little fluctuation in their numbers.
Finally, we’ll look at missed tackle averages for the group, and here we can see that Tedesco and Tuivasa-Sheck are both worse this year compared to last as well – although all are missing under than two tackles per game.
Ultimately, there are plenty of criticisms to make about Boyd, but the statistics do not paint the whole picture. Sure, these graphs all show that he is less impressive than fullbacks who are all several years younger than him, but they will never show where the Brisbane skipper is struggling the most: between the ears.
Some may say it’s his body that just isn’t up to standard anymore, and defensively that may be right. Boyd is also going largely unnoticed in attack this year. His ability to draw the outside defender before passing wide is significantly lessened, his ability to break the line has dropped off, and his ability to break tackles is almost non-existent.
He’s had four try assists, one line break, six line break assists and 16 tackle breaks in his 14 games so far this year. Compare that to last year, when he had 13 try assists, eight line breaks, 13 line break assists and 63 tackle breaks in 25 fixtures.
Too often this year he has drifted wide only to get tackled before passing, or throwing a poor pass, both of which effectively shut down any scoring opportunities. His line running lacks power, effectiveness or threat. Mentally he looks tired.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
He needs a break – he probably wants one. He turns 32 in a fortnight, so he’s still got plenty left in his legs, but he just lacks the enthusiasm and possibly even interest to give what is necessary week to week in the NRL.
Moving him to five-eighth is not going to help him or the team. He needs to drop the captaincy and take a few weeks away from football to refresh and evaluate whether he wants to keep playing.
If he does, then bring him back on the wing. Make his job simple, put no responsibilities on his shoulders and just have him focus on a simple job.
Boyd’s so much better than this. If he decides to walk away, then he deserves to be recognised as one of the modern-day greats who could potentially find himself named in the Hall of Fame in years to come.
Peter
Guest
Given your own comments and those by others on this site, you bid fair to be one of the biggest haters on The Roar. Do you have the personal insight to tell us why?
Don
Roar Rookie
What this article proves is that you should not always count on statistics to prove your point when it relates to player performance. What's the relevant stats for effort, judgement and leadership. The consistent lack of effort from Boyd this year has been a disgrace. Once a great positional player who always put himself in position to take the ball and protect his line, now he just often doesn't bother... Is he challenging Siebold to sack and pay him out? By playing this badly he is ensuring he won't get interest from another club and have the Broncs contribute to his salary. I wouldn't want him, with the effort shown this year, anywhere near a club at any money.
JD St George
Roar Pro
https://www.nrl.com/stats/players/?competition=111&season=2019&stat=78 Boyd is in the top 5 and ahead of RTS and Ponga but they have played less games and Ponga had a stint at 5/8.
farkurnell
Guest
John I see they took all the prizemoney from Tomic.Tennis is becoming an expensive hobby for our Bernie.I wonder if the Broncs can get refund from Darius.
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
I'm sure Darius' "metres gained" includes his running on & off the field. Broncos should replace him at full back with Gold Coaster Bernie Tomic. Puts in as much effort. Both earn money under false pretences.
Farkurnell
Guest
No Adam,everyone’s bored with the MP beatup,so we’ve moved over to the Basketcase Broncs.Good to see them down in the dumps with all the other struggling clubs.Dont forget its basic NRL nature to put the slipper in when the other club stumbles
Beastie
Roar Rookie
The biggest problem with looking at stats to see a players form is there is 1 aspect of a player's form that can't be quantified. Effort. It is arguably the most important thing when looking at a players form. If they have lots of effort, but plays just aren't coming off, they look good on the field but the stats don't reflect that. When they are putting in the effort and it's all working, then you get the stats to back it up.
Roar GOAT
Roar Rookie
If stats don’t show he’s been anything other than dreadful, then stats shouldn’t be used for anything l.
Gray-Hand
Roar Rookie
To be fair, he did have some hamstring issues which meant that he missed out on a preseason last year (or am I thinking 2017?), so injury was a factor. Not this year though. His heart clearly isn’t in it. He weakens the side by being there.
astro
Roar Rookie
Nice one! As a general rule, the stats available in League (especially at an individual level) are terrible and not very helpful in terms of evaluating a player's performance. However, there are better stats than the ones outlined to show how poor Boyd's form is. Missed tackles is only relevant when looking at whether these were one-on-one or group tackles (info we don't have, I don't think). Meters gained is pretty pointless as someone can run a length of the field try and do almost nothing else in a game, but rate highly on this metric, so its too variable. And try scoring is also pretty useless, as there isn't enough variation in the total to be relevant and the effort/skill needed to score the try also isn't accounted for. There is one interesting individual stat for an outside back like Boyd, though...It's tackle breaks. If you think about the role of a fullback or winger, breaking tackles is essential to their success, especially as they are more likely to encounter one-on-one tackles in situations where they have the ball. If you look at the top 50 players in the game in terms of the number of tackle breaks, the majority are outside backs. Teddy leads the league with 89 from 13 games. RTS is 2nd with 72 and Ponga comes in at 7th with 58. Boyd has 24...from 14 games. That's less than 2 tackle breaks per game. It's not even in the top 50 in the league. For context, look at the players around Boyd...Milford has 43, Oates has 51 and Bird has 47. All have played fewer games this year that Boyd...Jack Bird has only played in 9 games as an example. So there are some stats which might show how badly Boyd is playing...but ideally, there would be so many more to help us get a better understanding of a player's form.
Adam
Roar Guru
Must be a Friday there is a tonne of Broncos news. Note to everyone: they play Sunday this week (also on FTA).
Rubbish Surf 69
Roar Rookie
Ever since Boyd was dropped from Fullback in Origin to reaccomodate Billy in Game 2 of 2017, his form has been consistenly been dropping. There were massive calls for Billy to come in for Game 1 of that year, but as Darius had been playing well for QLD and Australia throughout 2016 and the beginning of 2017 while Billy waas injured, both Mal and Kevvie stayed loyal and kept him at the back. Until we lost that first game and there was no choice really but to bring Billy back (ps QLD ended up winning that series after losing game 1 with Billy shining bright). Throughout that 2016 and early 2017 period I personally believe Darius was playing some of his best ever footy. It seems kind of obvious that he was riding high on those big achievments and playing good football. So possibly when he was dropped finally for Billy, it must have been a whack to his confidence because he wasn't exactly playing bad otherwise, it's just that Billy is arguably the best ever. I've seen a downward spiral in his quality over these last couple of years - where has his cut out pass to Oates gone?? That used to be a sure thing 9 times out of time going down the left. I really hope he can find some form again, but I agree with many of the comments here that he needs a spell. I just can't understand Siebold's plan, with all the players in the Broncs getting dropped or moved on, how he hasn't given Boyd a break. I have followed the Broncos my entire life, since their beginning in the comp, and never have I been so disillusioned by my team. Come on Seebs pull your f*%#en finger out!
Farkurnell
Guest
Papi I just hope he rekindles his interest next week not Sunday against my Sharks. The way there going lately they'll play the Broncs back into form.
Mushi
Roar Guru
League stats also aren't that great. Which makes them hard to use.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
"does the missed tackle stat include the ones where he didn’t lay a hand on them" It doesn't in Supercoach so my guess is NO. There is no actual stat for a lack of heart and commitment which is clearly visible to all people who can see and know the game. Boyd's disinterest and lack of effort and commitment is clear for all to see and no group of statistics can cover or hide that fact. Given his history and success Boyd simply cannot be THAT bad by accident. It must be on purpose. Failing to show up as the last line of defence, falling over or not getting up to compete on a play, no desire to put in an effort, much less a repeat effort on any given tackle when the ball is still alive are all x l ear signs. As is running away from the ball when the Broncos are in possession, not putting his hand up when the "Baby Broncos" are lost and in need of leadership despite his wealth of experience, representative resume and the fact that he is the club captain these too are damming indications that Boyd doesn't have any respect or interest for the jersey he is playing in. In short, Boyd is a disgrace to the jersey of a once proud club that prided itself on professionalism, complete commitment and always giving 100% and competing until the final whistle. It is not a club that is associated with giving up but THAT is exactly what it has become under the coaching of Anthony Seibold and the on-field "leadership" (for want of a better term) by Darius Boyd. As they say in that game show "The Weakest Link", "It's time to go Darius!"
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Hear that Broncos fans? It's just a mirage! Keep Boyd at FB, he is doing a bang up job! A bang up job of helping to ruin Anthony Seibold's coaching career. Not that "second year syndrome Seibold" needs much help in that department. He is doing a pretty good job of shooting himself in the foot as it is! ;-)
Nat
Roar Guru
Appreciate the effort and there is no bigger Boyd fan than I but let's not measure around the peripherals, Boyd is right down on form and confidence. More than most players, a good FB needs anticipation, to see what's coming before it happens. Slater was the best in recent years and Boyd wasn't too far behind, having learned from him over their rep careers. Darius has lost that at the moment. We've all seen it. A player breaks the line and a simple step leaves Boyd standing where he should've been right there as soon as the bust was made. On some occasions he over reads it and someone Bromwich can throw a dummy and go straight past him. I don't think a stint in the reserves fixes that, maybe some weeks away from the game. I'm sure if he chooses to retire the NRL will 'Inglis' the Broncos back their $800k cap money.
Nat
Roar Guru
I note with interest some sites are starting to measure kick return meters separately. It gives a much better analysis of performance.
Farkurnell
Guest
Harvey - definition of a statistican .... a guy with his head in the oven,feet in a bucket of ice, but overall he feels fine
BA Sports
Roar Guru
I know right?! That same point has been made somewhere in the comments section in 11.3% of articles this week on the NRL... :)