Having won the World Cup, the bookies have England as clear favourites to win the upcoming Ashes series. But are the Aussies really so far off the pace?
First of all, the focus should be on the current squad of 25 Australian players, battling it out for a spot in the final touring party.
Justin Langer has managed something of a conjuring trick, putting together a really exciting group – one that is fit, brimfull of talent, and in very good form – right under the hosts’ noses.
This group has also had time to become acclimatised to local conditions, either through playing County cricket, being a member of the World Cup squad, or simply being part of the group who went into camp in Brisbane, then came to England and have spent weeks training and playing.
The practice games have largely been ignored by the English press, but they’ve been the perfect lead-in to this series, especially for the batsmen who needed time in the middle against the Dukes ball.
Australia can put together two teams that are of genuine Test quality, especially in the bowling department. It would be well over a decade since we had so many talented cricketers fit and ready to go, yet this point seems to have escaped people’s attention.
It’s also questionable whether England are in a World Cup hangover. Mark Wood seemed to indicate as much when he said he was still trying to come to terms with the result.
The likely home side are in disarray through poor form at Test level and injuries. Their top three batsmen have not been settled for more than two years and no one can be sure who will be playing right now.
These batsmen will likely be up against four bowlers who are in the top 20 in world cricket. If not, they might have to face James Pattinson or Peter Siddle – both of whom have had outstanding seasons in County cricket – or even Jhye Richardson, who has made such an impact in his short Test career to date.
England’s likely middle order is strong on paper but only Joe Root has genuine Test-quality numbers with the bat. Ben Stokes averages 33.9 after more than 50 Tests, while Jos Butler averages 35.9, but has made only one century in 54 innings.
Little has been said about England’s bowling stocks, probably because there’s an expectation James Anderson will take all before him.
England’s James Anderson. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
The reality is, England have few fit or in-form bowlers to choose from.
Mark Wood is not likely to play until the fourth Test and Jofra Archer is also battling to be fit.
Sam Curran and Chris Woakes will likely come in, but are not in the same class as Anderson.
Stuart Broad, so often the destroyer for England, is badly out of form and would be a surprising choice for this series, which is one less headache for the tourists.
Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid have proven ineffective in recent series with both ball and bat. Jack Leach, the other spin option, had a good series in Sri Lanka last year, but then didn’t make the squad for the Tests against the West Indies – a series which was lost by poor batting in the first two Tests.
The English fans, press and bookies consider their side favourites and hopefully their players do as well. But Australia have quietly assembled a talented squad that should give a good account of themselves.
The likely toursits’ team has at least three and perhaps as many as five or six world-class players and plenty of quality backup.
England, on the other hand, are likely struggling to move on from the World Cup, and have issues with their best batsmen and bowling options to support Anderson.
The side will have plenty of vocal encouragement, but they need to win games to keep their fickle public interested.
Should England be favourites for the Ashes? If that helps bring the urn back to Australia, by all means, leave England as top dogs.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Agreed he's only averaging about 20 down there, but even he has had a 60, 40, 30 and a couple of 20s. His balls faced though has been significant - chewing up a lot enabling partnerships with those around him. Which comes back to the point of why all teams haven't been able to break through that lower middle order - other than Ireland...
Paul
Roar Guru
all but Moeen Jeff, that guy can't buy a run now or in the past 12 months.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Overcorrections are over rated.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I can't believe its been 18 years. Captaincy is the everything. All that cattle without a series win there. It was our birthright in the previous 12 years!
Ad-O
Guest
You have to play Starc IMHO, at least in the 1st Test. He's still the most effective bowler in the world at cleaning up tail enders, and he's great with the old ball.
Gee
Roar Rookie
Bowled out for 85 against Ireland. Not exactly putting the fear of god into a visiting team like facing Australia on the Gabbatoir in the early 2000s is it :)
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Yeah, unlike Australia who happily removed the huge boost that playing the first test in brisbane gives us, England have shelved Lords as first test venue and replaced it with Edgbaston where we haven’t won a test in decades. If we win there, we’re a long way towards keeping the Ashes
U
Roar Rookie
Not intentionally. But a lucky happenstance
Jeff
Roar Rookie
This article also brought into focus just how much off field stuff many of the Test players are also having to do post-WC with functions, celebrations and the like between the WC and this current Test https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/27244869/spectre-burn-looms-joe-root-climbs-back-schedule-treadmill
Damo
Guest
As I read this, England are 7/55 vs Ireland!
Jeff
Roar Rookie
When you do the WC v Test match days comparison, it's quite a contrast. Leaving aside managing the bowlers, if one team's batting line up gets done over, there'll be little to time to rebuild composure/confidence and so momentum is likely to play a big part. Whichever team gets on a roll first, they may be hard to stop. Yes, Buttler, Bairstow, Woakes, Foakes, Curran, Moeen have all made decent runs in that slot over the last 18 months.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
I don't think the headline does the article justice. Yes, England deserve to be favourites; but (as the article suggests) maybe not as strong as they are. Maybe. Personally, I have England very strong favourites. But the article makes some decent points, in some areas England don't seem as strong as four years ago. Starting with that; any games Anderson miss will clearly be a bog loss for England. And when he comes back, he might be underdone and not as his best. He should still be good when available, just perhaps a level down his usual home-nation self. That said, Englan's bowling stocks are strong; certainly good enough to cause problems against a team who can't play anything except straight ones which come through quickly. England's bnatting is up in the air, as it was heading into 2015. If they read too much into white ball cricket and pick Roy that might open up a chance for Australia to regularly get to the middle order early. His First Class record isn't bad, but its hardly imposing. The batting also looks very Root-reliant, with non-specialists likely starting at six, or even five. It is important to remember, however, that England were in similar disarray in 2015. That was also after struggling in the Carribean against an even weaker West Indies than the current one. And Are Australia any better? The batting is Smith, mostly Warner, and a remainder who can't be relied on to score 50 between them. Last time it still had Clarke, and Rogers was reliable at the top. Much more so than any of the prospects for opening, or Khawaja at three, or anyopne who play five, six or seven. There is no Trent Bridge (all out 60) this time, but there is Edgbaston (all out 136). Apart from gaining the absence of Mitch Marsh, the Australian batting looks even weaker than 2015; albeit with more options at that poor level. Starc was probably at his peak in 2015, after the World Cup he actually produced some very good red ballc ricket for a while. Pattinson being back, and in form, is better than Johnson. Lyon has improved, but was decent enough by then already. Overall, Australia's bowling stocks have probably imnproved while the batting may have gone backwards; England has possibly gone backwards in both areas but not enough to lose favourtism at home. As always, Australia's best chances are likely to be in London. Both Lord's and, particularly, The Oval often play less into the home side's favour. The Oval is almost a smaller outfield, slower, Australian style ground on occasion (maybe early season SCG). Enough rain in the other Tests, and Australia could retain the urn with a drawn series.
Damo
Guest
'Stokes is a real fighter' I see what you did there....
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
Agree re Lyon being too important to drop for Lab. Marnus is really doing a job with the ball lately but he's not a specialist bowler like Lyon. Going in with 3 quicks and an inexperienced part-time spinner doesn't seem sound to me. It would lengthen the batting but still not worth the risk imo.
Paul
Roar Guru
I was doing some maths about the World Cup and each of the finalists managed to play 11 ONE DAY games in just shy of 7 weeks (46 days). On paper, the Poms have to get through 29 days and us 25 of Test cricket in a little more time. It shows just how poorly timed the WC really was but equally, the huge demands being put on our top cricketers at present. I watched a lot of that India series in England and Woakes and Curran in particular, won Tests for the Poms with the bat. I don't think Kohli got his tactics right, ie both should have been "Bumrahed" as soon as they got in. He also seem to struggle with ideas on how to stem the runs. We can't assume if they're 6 for 100, the jobs done. As you rightly say, these sorts of guys are perfectly capable of putting on 150 for the last 4 wickets, which are runs we have to make.
Paul
Roar Guru
wouldn't it be interesting to see Pattinson and Siddle open the attack in England, with Cummins & Hazlewood to follow up? Who would have thought that 6 months ago?
Omnitrader
Roar Rookie
the world cup final is a perfect example of this.
U
Roar Rookie
Stokes is also a real fighter. He has played many important innings for England with wickets falling around him. He’s not just a slogger
Omnitrader
Roar Rookie
to be fair to stokes, he is an All rounder who also averages 31 with the ball. If Aus had an elite all rounder like him then they should play them, but we on have Marsh and he is not test standard.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Australia are due for a series win in England, so I'm going with that.