Jofra Archer is a strong chance to make his Ashes debut on Thursday after last night being named in England’s 14-man squad for the first Test.
Archer has made a swift recovery from a left side strain he suffered in the World Cup final after only 11 days ago being ruled out of the Ashes opener by the English media.
The express quick is not guaranteed to play against Australia at Edgbaston as England have six fast bowlers in their squad. But I expect Archer to get the nod as England’s third specialist quick, alongside James Anderson and Chris Woakes, who would be the first two seamers picked by England in home conditions.
I predict this is how England will line up: Jason Roy, Rory Burns, Joe Denly, Joe Root, Jos Buttler, Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow (wicketkeeper), Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes, Jofra Archer and James Anderson.
That leaves Stuart Broad, Sam Curran and Olly Stone as the reserve members of the squad.
(Photo by Gareth Copley-IDI/IDI via Getty Images)
England have dropped Jack Leach, despite the left-arm spinner having a strong start to his Test career with 20 wickets at 26.
Australia’s batsmen may feel relieved by that choice. A succession of left-arm orthodox spinners have prospered against Australia in recent years, with South Africa’s Keshav Maharaj, India’s Ravindra Jadeja and Sri Lanka’s Rangana Herath all causing them trouble.
On the other hand, Australia’s batsmen have flayed Moeen Ali, the sole spinner in England’s squad. Australia made the mistake of being too aggressive against Moeen in his first Ashes Test in Cardiff four years ago, gifting him several wickets with risky shots.
Since then, however, they have made a point of just milking Moeen. As a result, the off-spinner has averaged a whopping 83 with the ball in his past nine Tests against Australia.
England will, though, have a powerful four-pronged pace unit in the first Test. England’s all-time leading Test wicket-taker, James Anderson, picks himself.
Fellow right-arm swing bowler Chris Woakes is also a lock. The 30-year-old bowling all-rounder has a phenomenal Test record in the UK, where he averages 21 with the ball and 41 with the bat, and is coming off a second-innings haul of 6-17 against Ireland.
The third pace spot is a battle between Jofra Archer, veteran seamer Stuart Broad, young bowling all-rounder Sam Curran, and the sharp-paced Olly Stone.
It would be a major shock if Stone was picked ahead of Archer, Broad and Curran. Any of that latter trio are attractive prospects for the English selectors. Broad not only has 444 Test wickets to his name but also owns an excellent record at home against Australia, with 61 wickets at 26.
(AP Photo/Jon Super)
Curran, meanwhile, is the weakest bowler of this trio, due in part to having only just turned 21 years old. But he is a multi-skilled cricketer, averaging 32 with the bat in his first ten Tests, and has the advantage of being the only left-arm bowler in the squad.
Curran is also fresh from a high quality performance for the England Lions against Australia A, taking six wickets to go with scores of 50 and 56*. He followed that up with 3-28 in the Test against Ireland as well as scoring 55 runs for the match.
Then there’s World Cup star Archer. Like Curran he offers value with the bat, as evidenced by his batting average of 31 in first-class cricket.
What may earn Archer a Test debut ahead of Broad and Curran, though, is the variety he would offer England’s attack via his startling pace and fear factor.
In Anderson, Woakes and all-rounder Ben Stokes – a talented swing bowler – England may feel they already have enough control. They may think that Archer provides a distinct point of difference with his steepling bounce, searing yorkers and ability to hit 154 kilometres per hour.
Broad, Curran and Archer are all very good options for England. They can’t make a wrong choice, really. But it seems that the momentum is with Archer and England would love to boast a quick who can scare the Aussie batsmen, to complement the ones who can befuddle them with lateral movement.
The other possibility is that England may decide to field six bowling options, with Woakes moving up to bat at seven to allow one of Curran or Broad to join a bulging attack.
Whichever way England go, fans of pace bowling should be giddy over this first Ashes Test, which will feature a wide variety of very gifted quicks.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Agreed. Like Australia, I suspect England will be looking to rotate the attack given 5 Tests in 6 and a half weeks. So if Archer isn't going to play five Tests - and that would seem highly unlikley given a) his side strain and b) he's never played Test cricket before, so he'll be bowling more than just a 10 over ODI spell - why play him on a deck that is better suited to seam and swing bowlers? Archer may get some seam movement, but his MO is out-and-out pace; for Edgbaston it's better to leave it to the likes of Anderson, Woakes and Broad, with Stokes (perhaps Curran is in the mix also). Similarly, Starc needs to be held back to play just 4 Tests as Edgbaston won't suit him more than it will Cummins, Siddle, Pattinson.
Simoc
Guest
Archer is a great bowler but probably won't be needed at Edgbaston. They should decide to get him back to 100%, from his side strain injury, for the second test and beyond. Either Curran or Broad would be preferable. The first three Pommie bats look vulnerable with Roy really being an ODI specialist to date, but from then on pretty solid especially if Curran is there as well. We seem to be ahead in the spin department so hopefully, they prepare good turning wickets for us. Otherwise, Starc might annihilate them
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
It's been mentioned a few times that it's a long time since he's played a first class match. So while he has a decent first class record, there would still be question marks around how well he'd go in a test. However, with Stokes in the team providing a fourth seam option, they could potentially just use him in short, sharp spells anyway, and if they roll out pitches with a bit of movement in them, it helps keep tests short and reduces the likelihood of him having to bowl lots of overs.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Np with that Nev. But that wasn't my point.
Cari
Roar Rookie
I’m English, London born and bred but I’m no lover of the ‘Barmy Army’ and their hangers on, to much money and too much beer and really lousy songs. But the crowds up north don’t take prisoners so the three cheats will get a right roasting, depend on it,
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Quite possibly, although given Stokes offers them such a strong 4th pace option will they feel they need 5 quicks?
Homer Gain
Guest
It's a brave man who buys any ticket at all for Edgbaston. It's forecast to rain all five days.
AREH
Roar Guru
Do you feel like long-term Jhye could be similar Kopa? The rare combination of swing and speed; control but strike bowling simultaneously
U
Roar Rookie
Had to back a fair way for your comparison John huh?
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
Why don't we respond by selecting Kepler Wessels, Joe Bugner, Hana Mandlikova & Tatiana Gregoriava. POT KETTLE.
Nev
Guest
It's a material error though, it needed correcting.
Tanmoy Kar
Roar Rookie
I think all three will play alongwith Anderson.
Tanmoy Kar
Guest
Looking at the condition of pitches now a days in England, I think Stuart Broad will replace Moeen Ali from your playing XI Ronan.
Insult_2_Injury
Roar Rookie
Fair enough, I believed from your bio that you are a journalist and photojournalist and travel the world regularly. I have no idea if you were taking cricket photos for your day job, or whether like a lot of Aussies you had decided to travel to an Aussie away series. I certainly won't bring it up again.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I thought this was well known about the Roar but many of us Roar writers are not sports journalists. I’m not a cricket journalist, I have a day job and just blog about cricket as a hobby in my spare time, as distinct from the cricket journalists who actually attend the matches, press conferences etc and do that as their job. Those linked articles explained how Archer was ruled out of the 1st Ashes Test by respected English media, prompting my article last week, only to then make an unexpected recovery to make the squad, as reflected in this article.
Insult_2_Injury
Roar Rookie
Why would you be in England, if you don't live there? Bit testy mate, I just thought you're a 'Roar Expert' who's pumping out an article a day on cricket, so wondered if you were in England for the WC & Ashes and your articles were informed by your surroundings with the ability to question the combatants. Your pasting of British newspaper articles without any comment didn't explain that.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
A no to what? Am I in England? No I don't live in England so why would I be there?
Paul
Roar Guru
Exactly right, Ronan. If you were to pick England's best Test XI right now, it would be full of guys totally capable of making plenty batting at 6 or lower and only one bloke, Root, able to bat above that!!
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
I wonder if Archers side strain is on their minds. I heard he played a T20 the other day but that's 4 overs at most. He could be called on to bowl 10 or 20 times that in a test. If there's any doubt they may decide to save him for another day. If England can win at Edgbaston without him that should do a lot for their confidence. If they lose, oh well, set him loose in the next test.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
The Empire strikes back!