Between now and the Wallabies’ first game of the Rugby World Cup – against Fiji in Sapporo on September 21 – they have three games to establish not just who will make the cut for the 31-man squad for Japan, but all the combinations and a first XV within it.
That’s 240 minutes of rugby to get everything sorted.
In all seriousness, from the first two games of The Rugby Championship, it’s so hard to put into words how big a task this is for the Wallabies.
Those two performances – an underwhelming loss in Johannesburg to South Africa, and a much-improved win over Argentina in Brisbane – were literally poles apart, both in terms of quality and the teams that took the field.
Two hundred and forty minutes.
Of course, the Wallabies were in exactly this same situation in 2015, and it actually ended rather well.
From the side that beat South Africa 24-20 in Brisbane to kick off the RWC preparations in earnest, ten of the starters were also in place for the RWC final against New Zealand at Twickenham a couple of months later. Another three who came off the bench in Brisbane would be in the starting side at Twickers in the decider.
In total, 18 of the 23 who took the field in the first Test of 2015 were still there by the end of the World Cup.
Anyone who’s read or listened to even a little bit of former Wallabies prop turned Gain Line Analytics founder Ben Darwin’s theory around the importance of cohesion within rugby and all team sports will quickly join those dots. That continuity at the selection table saw the Wallabies win ten of 12 games in 2015, and all but the one that counted the most at the RWC.
The Wallabies flourished at the 2015 World Cup. (AP Photo/Rui Vieira)
And the continuity started quite early in the piece, too.
From the Brisbane win over the Springboks, Wallabies coach Michael Cheika made seven changes to the starting side, and another six changes to the bench for the side that then beat Argentina in Mendoza.
Matt Toomua came into the starting side for Matt Giteau at inside centre, Joe Tomane for Rob Horne on the left wing, Bernard Foley and Nick Phipps for Quade Cooper and Will Genia in the halves. The front row remained the same, and lock Rob Simmons and back-rower Scott Fardy backed up from the Brisbane win, while only Tatafu Polota-Nau and Scott Sio wore the same bench jerseys in consecutive games. Thirteen changes in all.
But come the first Bledisloe Test of 2015 back in Sydney, and though Cheika made another 12 personnel and positional changes to the side that beat Argentina, the side that beat the All Blacks 27-19 contained 18 of the 23 that had won in Brisbane a few weeks earlier.
Twelve of the Sydney Bledisloe starting XV started the RWC final in exactly the same jersey number. So did six of the bench. Giteau and Drew Mitchell started in the No.12 and No.11 jerseys with the ink barely dry on the new overseas eligibility policy. Fardy, Michael Hooper and David Pocock were together as a 6-7-8 unit.
Sekope Kepu, Stephen Moore and Scott Sio played the first of seven of the next ten Tests as a front row trio, and Polota-Nau, James Slipper, and Greg Holmes mirrored this, coming off the bench in the same Tests that Kepu, Moore, and Sio started.
By just the third Test of the year, the front and back rows, the back five and Bernard Foley were all in place, as was much of the bench.
And from there, it was just about getting game time into players around the fringe.
So Henry Speight, Toomua, Cooper, Nic White and Wycliff Palu came in for the second Bledisloe, and Kane Douglas came onto the bench. Sean McMahon and Ben McCalman started against the USA in Chicago.
Come the RWC, it was really only the Uruguay game that the first XV sat out, and with injuries the only reason regular starting players didn’t play. Hooper missed the Wales game, while Folau and Pocock missed the quarter-final against Scotland. Sio missed the semi against Argentina.
But everyone was back for the final. I’ll say it again: 18 of the 23 who took the field in the first Test of 2015 were also there for the Rugby World Cup final.
Now, that’s all ancient history, obviously, but it’s history worth looking at again because it’s a perfect antithesis of the current selection riddle that faces Cheika and his panel colleagues, Scott Johnson and Michael O’Connor.
Michael Cheika has a selection headache. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
After that underwhelming loss to South Africa in Johannesburg to kick off the 2019 campaign, the selectors made 12 changes for the next Test – the much-improved win over Argentina in Brisbane.
Only the centre pairing of Samu Kerevi and Tevita Kuridrani, the back-row unit of Isi Naisarani, Hooper and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, and the lock pairing of Rory Arnold and Izack Rodda remained the following week.
The Wallabies won, of course, but was it because of the much-improved performance, or was it the 12 changes? How can you possibly tell, subjectively or evidently?
I don’t think the Wallabies can use the 2015 continuity model in 2019, because the first XV is nowhere near as clear cut. In 2015, the team that played the first Test of the year loaded up again for the first Bledisloe Test, and were pretty obviously the best combination.
But how many of the Johannesburg team are in the first XV? How many from Brisbane? How many in the first XV haven’t played yet?
This all means that this week in Perth, the Wallabies will have to balance the need to end the Bledisloe drought with the need to experiment further, bed down combinations and hope that the first XV becomes clearer.
And that will be interesting, because only the centres, locks, and the Brumbies front row are obvious picks to me.
The back three, the halves, the back row, and pretty much the whole bench are just balls spinning around the bingo basket right now.
And when you consider all that, 240 minutes really isn’t much time at all.
Machooka
Roar Guru
And Wales play England at Twickers this w'end!?! ;)
PeterK
Roar Guru
NH view anything other than 6N's and RWC as friendlies In fact they are called warm ups
Ralph
Roar Guru
I don't think you'll need me to tell you if you're in the dog house Fred (wink).
Kiwikrs
Roar Rookie
The fact that they're called friendlies...
Kane
Roar Guru
There’s no way Australia are 50/50 for wins against Georgia and Fiji. Australia are >95% chance of making the quarters. Even if they do trip up against Wales and someone else then it requires the minnows to continue winning. Remember Tonga in 2011 and Japan in 2015. France still made the final.
Kane
Roar Guru
Scary thought, a Wallabies win secures Wales the No1 ranking...
QED
Roar Rookie
It seems the Wallabies squad is blessed with a plethora of ‘specialist’ subs. None of whom possesses the complete skill set to lock down any one specific role. Beale (15,12,10,11/14), Hodge (15,12,13,11/14), JOC (12,13,10,11/14,15), Toomua (12,10) This is either the master stroke of a genius to have developed the ultimate flexible squad with endless possible combinations and game plans to keep oppositions guessing as to your match day strategy and tactics. Or incompetence.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
The other side of that coin Nick is that I sense that the AB’s have a breakout performance lurking somewhere not too far away. Perhaps that will be Auckland, Eden Park has been such a Wallabies graveyard?
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Pretty persuasive logic that is impossible to argue against in my opinion, Paul.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
Just pick the best players in their best positions week after week. Injuries provide opportunities for others.
Gepetto
Roar Rookie
When James last played fullback for the Reds it became apparent he cannot kick out of hand; unless you count hooking the ball to the left. Various " experts" thought he or Karmichael could replace Cooper at #10.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Yes I'd agree with that Geoff. No reason the WBs cannot be competitive in this game.
Luke
Guest
Simultaneously hilarious and depressing.
Gishan De Soyza
Roar Pro
Exactly right Numpty, theres a big confusion as into whats the best 23 and Cheika's 23 for the RWC. I think Cheika knows who he wants as his first choice 23 but the rest of us are on panick mode since it wont be the same as Cheikas. Chieka only has a few which he is unsure of and he will use the next two games and possibly the Samoa game to settle on those positions. He will also look to give the back up players who not his first choice 23 in one of the three games, I'm not quite sure in which one he will do so. 1 / 17 - S. Sio / J. Slipper (Can be interchanged) 2 / 16 - F. Faingaa / T. Latu 3 / 18 - A. Alatoaa / T. Topou (Kepu can start if and when required) 4 - I. Rodda 5 / 19 - R. Arnold / R. Simmons / A. Coleman / L.S.L (He is still unsure with 19 and even perhaps 5) 6 / 20 - D. Pocock / L.S.L / J. Dempsy / L. Jones / P. Samu / L. Wright (Pocock will be either 6 or 20 and the other spot is his biggest area of uncertainty ATM in my opinion) 7 - M. Hooper 8 - I. Naisarani 9 / 21 - W. Genia / N. White 10 - C. Leleafano / B. Foley (Chieka prefers Foley and can easily start him although I suspect this is the position he has most debate about with the other two selectors) 11 - M. Koribete 12 / 22 - S. Kervi / (JOC or M. Toomua) He will use the next game to give JOC some game time and make a call if 22 will JOC or Toomua) Although If CLL starts he will most likely have Foley on the bench. 13 - T. Kurindrani (He has AAC, J. Patea, S. Kervi, R. Hodge & JOC as cover in his mind) 14 - R. Hodge / DHP / T. Banks (Another spot which he is unsure about 15 / 23 - K. Beale / R. Hodge / DHP / T. Banks (Beale will start at 15 and he will know who 23 is once he decides on 14) So if you look at the above line up, Chieka is very close to settling with his preferred first choice 23 and will do so by the end of the second game bar any injuries. Then its just a matter of filling in the balance 8 players for the squad which he has plenty of options at the moment. Which game he decides to not play his first choice 23 is anyone's guess but I would put my money that he would do it for the second All Blacks game. Again, this is what I think Cheika will do. I however think the best way to go for Bled 1 is, 1/17 - S. Sio / J. Slipper 2/16 - F. Faingaa / T. Latu 3/18 - AAA / T. Topou 4 - I. Rodda 5/19 - R. Arnold / LSL 6 / 20 L. Wright or J. Dempsy / D. Pocock (Ease Pocock in the last 20 mins) 7 - M. Hooper 8 - I. Naisrani 9/21 - W. Genia / N. White 10 - C. Leleafano 11 - M. Koribete 12/22 - S. Kervi / JOC (Bring on JOC in the second half) 13 - T. Kurindrani 14 - T. Banks 15/23 - R. Hodge / K. Beale And for Bled 2 I would go with, 1/17 - J. Slipper/ S. Sio 2/16 - F. Faingaa / T. Latu 3/18 - AAA / T. Topou 4 - R. Simmons 5/19 - A. Colemean / LSL 6 / 20 - D. Pocock (To play only the first half) / L. Wright or J. Dempsy 7 - M. Hooper 8 - I. Naisrani 9/21 - N. White / N. White 10 - C. Leleafano 11 - M. Koribete 12/22 - JOC / S. Kervi (Bring on Kervi in the last 20) 13 - T. Kurindrani 14 - T. Banks 15/23 - R. Hodge / K. Beale Then I would give some of the other back ups some game time against Samoa whilst still keeping majority of the combinations in tact. The above selections give a good balance in trying to nail down the first choice 23, giving combinations time to gel and still give the Wallabies a chance of winning. But I am 100% sure this will not happen.
Bobby
Roar Rookie
Great call Bobbles. A few on here may disagree with a selection or 2 but it gave me some comic relief from an otherwise predictable, boring day. Well done chap !
freddieeffer
Roar Rookie
I didn't know that you know my wife Ralph? and that silliest thing is rather personal for me! and can you please give me a heads up if I'm in the dog-house again tonight?
Noodles
Roar Rookie
Maybe I’m missing the point but I see a familiar group at the spine. Four of the likely tight five play at the brumbies together with another off the bench. Rodda and TT have joined them smoothly. Naisarani is settling well and hooper seems to be benefiting from the improved grunt in tight. The only real unknown is 6 and I’d be pleased to see young Valentini get a gallop at some point. In the backs I reckon the centres are the big WIP. They need a lot of time together and SK needs to find a way to work both hands on the ball. Halves are good so long as CLL is settled in. After that my thinking is that the back three might not change a lot. Bench in general looks good.
sheek
Roar Guru
PeterK, Stick to your guns & say what you believe you think is right. Remember, not everyone is going to agree with you. Ever. So don't worry about those who don't agree with you!
Brett McKay
Expert
Yeah, it's a good point Terry. Worth remembering, again going back to 2015, that after the 27-19 win in Sydney, Cheika still made seven changes to the XV and another five on the bench. I remember the general thinking at the time was, "wow, twelve changes - what if they'd lost?" There was genuine surprise. But again, it worked out pretty well..
Brett McKay
Expert
At least it's all out in one easy-to-tick-off checklist, Ralph! :lol: