For the fourth time in just over two years, Australia find themselves in a strong position to register a hugely significant Test series win away from home. The previous three occasions, though, they fell apart.
Australia had gilded chances to win series in India, South Africa and the UAE.
Now they’re better placed to end their long Ashes drought in the UK than they’ve been since early in the 2005 series. There are many factors in Australia’s favour.
Up 1-0 after thrashing England at Edgbaston, they head to their favourite ground in the Old Dart, Lord’s, where they have a 6-2 Test win-loss record in the past 40 years.
They face a home side with a batting line-up badly out of form and an attack missing its key bowler, James Anderson. Meanwhile, the tourists have stars Steve Smith, Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon in career-best form.
The Aussies could scarcely better placed after the first Test. Not to suggest England are gone, as they are extremely difficult to snatch series from at home, rather that Australia could not have hoped to have found themselves in a more favourable position at this stage.
Steve Smith (Photo by Visionhaus)
However, the same could be said of the recent series in India, SA and Pakistan.
It may be a while before Australia have a better opportunity to win a series in India than they were handed in Dharamshala in March 2017. With the series tied at 1-1 heading into the deciding fourth Test, Australia must have been delighted to find the pitch was not a typically slow, low Indian surface but instead a fast, bouncy track like back home.
They received a further boost when they got to bat first and build scoreboard pressure. At 1-144 on Day 1, with guns Smith and David Warner cruising, Australia were well in front.
Push on, make 400 and India would face a monumental task to avoid losing their first home series in nearly five years.
Instead the tourists collapsed to be all out for 300. Then, with India stuttering at 6-221, Australia again found themselves ahead in the game. Once more they let things slide, though, with India’s tail wagging to push them up to 332 and a lead of 32.
That essentially left the match on level terms. The Aussies now just needed to make 250 in familiar and decent batting conditions to give India a nasty chase.
But they couldn’t handle the pressure, subsiding for 137 and handing India the series there and then, crumbling when it mattered most.
A year later, in South Africa, Australia were in a similar position to their current one – 1-0 up after easily defeating the Proteas in the first match.
Australia’s attack was on fire and their batting in good shape, with five of their top six making a half century, while Shaun Marsh had clipped a neat 40 in the first dig.
I don’t even need to detail what happened from there. It was as dark as cricket gets.
Amid the long-lingering gloom that followed, an undermanned side had a chance to flip the narrative with a shock series win in the UAE.
Heading into the second and deciding Test in Abu Dhabi, Australia had confidence and momentum with them after an incredible second innings batting display helped them earn a draw at Dubai. Usman Khawaja had made one of the great Test tons of the modern era, while Travis Head and Tim Paine had both stonewalled for well over three overs apiece.
Australia’s Usman Khawaja celebrates his century against Pakistan in Dubai. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)
Then, at Abu Dhabi, Pakistan fell apart in the first session. They were 5-57 and Australia were in a fantastic position to win their first Test series in Asia for seven years.
But, once again, they could not finish off their dazed opponent. Pakistan scrapped to 282 and then Australia disintegrated for 145 in their first innings, ensuring their woeful run would continue.
Will history repeat itself over the next month? Will the Aussies take their foot off England’s collective throats, only to spend years ruing it?
So much will depend on what happens here at Lord’s. If Australia win this Test, I cannot see England reeling them in. Should they falter, however, England easily could run away with the series, leaving Australia’s crushing win at Edgbaston as a mere footnote in yet another disappointing campaign on foreign shores.
Ben
Guest
We need to win now considering ive just put $10 on AUS to win lol
Brian
Guest
Pretty rare in general I'd say. 2005 from memory England scraped the 2nd Test but the 3rd Test Australia held on for a draw with 1 wicket to spare. Ponting played superbly on the last day to save it.
Jim Prideaux
Roar Rookie
When you put it like that Ronan it doesn’t make for good reading. In our favour, we have a good record at Lords and England side relying on a debutante to fix their attack. On Archer, I don’t think he’s going to save their attack, and at Lords, he doesn’t need to be - Chris Woakes averages 9.75 with the ball and 68.5 with bat there and looks to be in decent form (well, 1st innings if the 1st test anyway).
Old mate
Roar Rookie
One time out of the 4 they did not fall apart after test 1. Being a glass half full guy I predict this series will make it 2 out of the last 5 they did not fall apart after test 1. Are you with me fellas?
Peter Warrington
Guest
Yes but two of the important passages were head’s assault on broad on day 1, and khawaja in the second dig Both were willing to take on the bowlers because in the context the benefits outweighed the risks. They didn’t wait for the bowlers to wilt. It was a chappelli type of counter. Normal in that sense.
Worlds Biggest
Roar Pro
Good points raised Ronan, promising starts in previous series have been wasted. I would love to see the Aussies really go for the jugular in this game, don't give them anything.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Spot on - he averages 29.04 with Anderson and 26.54 without! Wow - that's my expectations blown out of the water.
Andre Leslie
Roar Guru
Historic points well made. I'm hopeful that the extra experience of S Waugh and RT Ponting over the last few months has made the Aussie team are more stable unit. Let's see what happens!
BurgyGreen
Guest
More than once in the first Test we were staring at a crushing defeat before Smith carried us on his back. It’s a long series and we must expect Smith to be dismissed cheaply at least a couple of times. Will the rest of the team crumble, or will they show that there’s some real Test match steel there? Guys like Warner, Khawaja and Head need to show that they can be more than just a supporting act in this series.
Paul
Roar Guru
grafting doesn't necessarily mean batting slowly, certainly not the way I see it, Peter. To me it means batting through the hard times, getting on top of the attack then cashing in. This is certainly not new millennium "normal" Test batting.
Tanmoy Kar
Guest
With Anderson out of the Series and Bairstow, Buttler, Denly all are in poor form, this is a very good chance for Australia to win the Ashes.
Tony H
Roar Pro
I was reading an article on this the other day, and I think Broad averages 3 runs better without Anderson.
Peter Warrington
Guest
Everyone is saying they are grafting but they went way faster at edgbaston than in recent series They are just playing normal cricket. About time.
Brian
Guest
I had not noticed how well Australia has so often started. At home last year it was also 1-1 against India going into Boxing Day. I have feeling Lord's will be a draw flat pitch and English weather.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
And in 2005 it came down to Glenn McGrath stepping on a ball. He missed two tests, England managed to scrape wins in those two tests.
JImbob
Guest
Good insights here; makes me nervous about Lords.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Ah Ronan. I've got some other old wounds you can reopen, or maybe you could give me some paper cuts and pour some lemon juice on... It makes for sobering reading and it also makes you wonder if we have so much invested in the first Test that we ease off mentally that 10-15% for the second. One thing for sure is that England will come back hard. Archer will make a difference and I expect Woakes to lift a gear. Not sure about Broad - I'd be interested in seeing his figures with and without Anderson. I think he really struggles, but I'll need to look into it. Should be a tough contest. I'm looking at Wade and Head again to anchor the middle. Hopefully head turns a 50 into a 100.
AREH
Roar Guru
It's fascinating isn't it; Australia held a 1-0 advantage in the India and RSA series - both pivotal foreign tours - in the last two years. We are going to find out a lot about the mentality and toughness of this new breed of Australia. It's not often Ashes series turn around following the first test, with 2005 being the only recent example, but it can happen. As seems obvious a 2-0 advantage or even remaining 1-0 into the third, may be nearly insurmountable for the trophy holders.
Paul
Roar Guru
Ronan, essentially what you're doing is questioning whether this Australian side has the character and resilience to go on and win the Ashes when 3 recent Australian teams have failed to do so. It's not about skill as this team is as skillful as those other sides and more so than the team that went to the UAE. This side has way more balance, has more guys in form and all are buying into the Langer approach of valuing your wicket, trying to grind out runs and aiming to make a score so a very good bowling quartet can defend it. These guys also have blokes like Ponting & S Waugh to help with advice and it's hard to think of three more resilient and determined cricketers in Australia in the last 30 years. If Australia does not win this series, it would NOT be because they lacked the desire or temperament to win, it will be because they were outplayed. Right this minute in time though, I can't see that happening.