The Ashes: England vs Australia, fourth Test preview, prediction

After Ben Stokes’ heroics kept the 2019 Ashes series alive, England and Australia head to the famous Old Trafford for the fourth Test.

Despite Stokes hitting one of the greatest innings in history, all it’s done is keep England alive, with the equation for the remainder of the series barely changing.

For England to regain the Ashes they must win at least one Test, while the tourists simply need to keep the series drawn to retain the urn they won on home soil.

But all the momentum is now with the home side as the two teams move from Headingley to Manchester.

While Australia had all the running of the third Test after the first innings, where they knocked over England for just 67 runs in a sensational display of bowling in conditions which shouldn’t have brought about a collapse, they somehow gave the match away.

England’s bowling was solid in the second innings, but they couldn’t stop the Steve Smith-less Aussies from setting an imposing 359 for victory.

When they were 2-15 with both openers back in the sheds, it should have been a cakewalk for the Aussies. Instead, Joe Root dug in and Ben Stokes got through to stumps, then came out the following day and ended up 135 not out, including a 77-run final wicket partnership with Jack Leach to pull off the great escape.

The victory hands the home side and their Barmy Army followers all the momentum, with Stokes regarded as a national hero in what has been an incredible summer for the controversial all-rounder.

While momentum is one thing, Australia will feel it was an opportunity they let pass by, and should have plenty of areas to work on – namely the length they are bowling and decisions they are reviewing, while the top of the order is also under the pump.

England are hardly out of the woods though. They have plenty of underperforming players, and without the heroics of Stokes, the third Test would have ended in a one-sided blitz.

Root still looks scratchy, their batting hasn’t generally been much better than the Aussies’, and Chris Woakes continues to be underutilised with the ball – compounded now by the fact James Anderson has been ruled out for the rest of the series with his injury.

(Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)

While Old Trafford has traditionally been more friendly for batting, the venue has only hosted five Tests this decade (including only one Ashes Test) and not much has been revealed or said about the pitch at this stage.

From reports, it’s dry again without much grass, so it could again be good conditions for batting when the sun is out, but not so when the cloud cover and rain take over, with spin coming into the game late.

Australia have won the last three matches at Old Trafford between these two nations that ended with a result, however the most recent two matches – in 2013 and 2005 – were each drawn.

The bad news (and it’s hardly a surprise) is that the weather doesn’t look great. There is some forecast of rain on Days 1, 2 and 3, although just how much play we lose is anyone’s guess.

History

Overall record: Played 349, Australia 145, England 109, drawn 95
Overall record in England: Played 169, Australia 51, England 50, drawn 68
Overall record at Old Trafford: Played 29, Australia 7, England 7, drawn 15
Overall series record: Played 78, Australia 40, England 33, drawn 8
Overall series record in England: Played 38, England 19, Australia 15, drawn 4

Last five series
2017-18: Australia won 4-0 in Australia
2015: England won 3-2 in England
2013-14: Australia won 5-0 in Australia
2013: England won 3-0 in England
2010-11: England won 3-1 in Australia

Last five matches at Old Trafford
2013, Aug 1-5: Match drawn
2005, Aug 11-15: Match drawn
1997, Jul 3-7: Australia won by 268 runs
1993, Jun 3-7: Australia won by 179 runs
1989, Jul 27-Aug 1: Australia won by 9 wickets

Team news, likely XIs and squads

England
The ideal scenario was that Anderson would return for Manchester after bowling just four overs at Edgbaston, before he went off with injury, missing the second and third Tests.

Woakes, who has been horrendously under-used by skipper Root, was the most likely bowler to drop out of the playing XI, however his spot seems to be a little more secure now.

England may still elect to replace Woakes though, with Craig Overton called into the playing group. He made his Test debut during the last Ashes tour Down Under and was impressive, while Sam Curran is a third bowler fighting for the one gig.

Given both Curran and Overton can hold the bat, it would also give England some security at number eight, which was a key concern if Woakes was to be dropped.

Don’t be surprised if Leach jumps up the order to number nine as well.

What has been confirmed for the home side is that Joe Denly will move to the top of the order for some music against the new ball, moving Jason Roy back to number four.

Roy can count himself lucky to be still in the XI given his abysmal series, but moving away from the top may give him a chance to get going and find some form without as much pressure – although the form of the top three suggests he might still face a relatively new ball anyway.

1. Joe Denly
2. Rory Burns
3. Joe Root (c)
4. Jason Roy
5. Jos Buttler
6. Ben Stokes
7. Jonny Bairstow (wk)
8. Chris Woakes
9. Jack Leach
10. Jofra Archer
11. Stuart Broad
Rest of squad: Sam Curran, Craig Overton

Australia
For the Aussies, the policy of not playing James Pattinson in back-to-back matches continues and Steve Smith returns.

(Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

While Pattinson has officially been dropped, the length and consistency of his bowling left a lot to be desired at Headingley, and while he is likely to return at The Oval, it’s not a huge surprise to see him miss what will likely be a flat track in Manchester.

Mitchell Starc and Peter Siddle are the two duelling for his spot and while the latter has been solid, it feels like now might be the right time to unleash Starc.

Starc could be strong for all the same reasons Jofra Archer has been. He has a good bouncer, extra pace, and he is a left-handed option, which breaks up the right-arm stuff from the Aussie attack.

Maybe even more importantly, he will create footmarks for Nathan Lyon, which could prove to be vital at the back end of the game, particularly if Australia bat first.

Starc won’t play at The Oval one would think, but after an impressive return in the tour match, it could be time to see if he can flip the series in much the same way Archer has for England.

The other change is Smith coming back from a concussion for the out-of-sorts Usman Khawaja.

Australia could have dropped any of the top three, given their woeful form, but Smith is likely to slot in at first drop, with Marnus Labuschagne holding onto number four.

1. David Warner
2. Marcus Harris
3. Steve Smith
4. Marnus Labuschagne
5. Travis Head
6. Matthew Wade
7. Tim Paine (c, wk)
8. Pat Cummins
9. Mitchell Starc
10. Josh Hazlewood
11. Nathan Lyon
Rest of squad: Cameron Bancroft, Usman Khawaja, Mitchell Marsh, Michael Neser, James Pattinson, Peter Siddle

Keys to the match

Australia must bowl fuller
One of the big differences between the two sides at Leeds was England’s ability to control their length and be patient with the ball in hand.

What made it even more baffling is that Australia did it extremely well in the first innings, only to go away from that and bowl a whole lot of balls on a nothing length in the second innings.

While back of a length can work at most Australian venues, that’s not the case with the English Dukes ball in those conditions.

Archer can get away with bowling whatever length he wants because of his pace, and Starc, should he play, will be in the same boat.

But the others can’t. Pattinson was, in particular, guilty of bowling too short, but it looked like that was the plan for most of the Aussie bowlers, and it calls Tim Paine’s captaincy into question – especially when those plans refused to come off.

While bouncing Rory Burns is all good and well, each of the other batsmen have struggled, particularly early in their innings, against consistent full bowling.

Josh Hazlewood did it excellently in the first innings of the third Test, and the entire attack must follow his lead.

(Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

How do Australia stop the summer of Stokes?
Stokes is having the summer of his life and one of the best we have ever seen.

From his World Cup heorics, to a century in the second Test to stop England from falling 2-0 down at Lord’s, his ridiculous spell on the afternoon of Day 2 at Headingley with the ball, and then his mammoth century, everything is going right for the all-rounder.

If Australia want to come away with a series victory, then stopping Stokes is crucial.

It’s not just his form, but the constant threat Stokes poses in high-pressure situations, whether with bat or ball, as well as the idea that, even with a game seemingly won, he will be there to try and inspire his side back into the contest, as he did twice in Leeds.

What’s even more impressive is the way he can go up and down the gears with the flow of the match.

He could be the overall difference between the two sides.

Fatigue might start to become an issue for him, having played a mountain of cricket, but the nine-day break between matches should freshen him up.

Australia must be consistent with their lines and lengths to Stokes, who is patient when needed, and not let him breakthrough with wickets, as he tends to do when coming on to bowl in difficult scenarios.

(Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

The battle of Smith and Archer
This was the battle that changed the series at the home of cricket. When Archer struck Smith not once, not twice, but three times and put him on ice for the third Test, it was the moment you’d look back at and go “England won the Ashes right there.”

And while that hasn’t happened yet, if Smith can’t come back and recapture the form he had during his first three innings, Australia are going to need a lot to go right for them.

Smith is the key to this entire campaign and the proof is in the numbers, where he still leads all run-scorers with 378 despite only playing three of a possible six innings.

That is a crazy sentence – one you wouldn’t write about any other player in the world.

Smith is going to have to face Archer again and while you’d hardly expect him to be scared – having done a lot of work in the nets since he was medically cleared to resume batting – the former skipper will still be hesitant, and could easily be undone by one good ball, such is the brutal nature of batting.

And if he is, England could find themselves up 2-1.

(Photo by John Walton/PA Images via Getty Images)

Can a top-order finally fire?
Let’s not blame T20 cricket like every analyst seems to want to do, but there is no getting around the fact that it’s been a horrendous time for top orders.

There has been the odd exception to the rule – Burns’ century comes to mind, or David Warner’s hard-fought half-century – but if one of these opening partnerships can see off the new ball and put runs up, it could change the momentum of the series.

So far, Root hasn’t come in without pressure, nor has most of either middle order, because runs have been so hard to come by against the new ball.

Australia’s top order looks more likely, albeit with a lot of luck, but moving Smith to three strengthens things, particularly if Warner and Marcus Harris can put away the extravagant shots and force Stuart Broad to change his length, as he did the only time Warner has made runs in this series.

Mixing up positions on the crease, making sure bad balls disappear and being patient remains the key for Warner and Harris, while England now move Denly to the top.

Burns still hasn’t convinced anyone despite the runs he has put up, while Denly has looked solid at times. Denly’s role, frankly, isn’t to score a hundred, although that’d be nice. It’s to build a platform and make sure that, by the time Root and Roy are needed at the crease, he and Burns have got Australia’s bowlers starting their second spell.

(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Key game information: England vs Australia, the Ashes, fourth Test

Dates: Wednesday, September 4 – Sunday, September 8
First ball: 8pm (AEST)
Expected daily finish time: 3am (AEST)
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester
TV: Live, 9Gem
Online: Live, 9Now
Umpires: Kumar Dharmasena, Marais Erasmus

Hours of play

Prediction
Neither side has had complete control on these dry decks, but England bring all the momentum.

However, with rain forecast and neither team likely to take a huge risk due to the perilous state of the series, I’m not sure we are going to see a result.

It’ll be right all the way, but we should just run out of time to force a two-one scoreline, with the series heading back to London for a winner-takes-all duel at the famous old Oval.

Drawn match.

Stay across all the action from Headingley as The Roar cover the match with our live scores, blog and highlights of each day’s play.