GWS will cancel Tiger Time and win their first flag - here's why

GWS enter today’s grand final as significant outsiders, their opponents, the Richmond Tigers, favoured to win their second premiership in three years.

Maybe it’s foolhardy to think so, but I believe GWS are poised to flip that logic on its head, upset the apple cart and win the club’s first premiership. Why? I’ve got a few reasons.

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Consider this: Richmond have elite tall players in both defence and attack. In the two finals they’ve played so far this September, they’ve both times been able to exploit that advantage at one end or the other.

Against Brisbane, it was in defence. With the Lions lacking tall targets to kick to, the Tigers were able to mop up at will and prevent a Brisbane side that dominated early from being able to win on weight of numbers.

Against Geelong, it was in the forward line. With Mark Blicavs shifted to the wing, Geelong were able to keep Jack Riewoldt out of it but couldn’t do the same for Tom Lynch, who kicked five to be the match-winner.

Richmond will have no such advantage at either end against GWS, who unlike so many of even the best teams in the AFL have a full complement of quality talls at both ends.

With three dangerous targets in the Coleman Medallist Jeremy Cameron, Jeremy Finlayson and Harry Himmelberg up forward, the Giants have the tall timber needed to stretch Richmond’s defence.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

David Astbury, Dylan Grimes and Nathan Broad will all have to play accountable footy. This is probably the best three-tall forward line in the league, and trying to cover them will hamper Richmond’s ability to get the ball back through dominant defence.

At the other end, GWS have enough talent to match up well on Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch. Between Phil Davis, Sam Taylor and Aidan Corr they have enough bodies to keep them busy while still allowing Nick Haynes to be the intercept machine he is.

While Davis comes into the match under a bit of an injury cloud, it’s worth noting the Giants will also have the option of throwing Adam Tomlinson back there, or even bringing in Lachie Keeffe as a late call-up if they need to.

If it was Collingwood making this grand final, I’ve got no doubt Richmond would’ve rolled them.

They would have intercepted all day against the Magpies’ forward line, where Brodie Mihocek is partnered by a garden rake wearing a wig, while at least one of Riewoldt or Lynch drove the knife in at the other end.

Whether the Giants can decisively win the battle at in attack or defence isn’t important – what matters is they’re probably not going to lose the game this way, which is what happened to the teams who took on Richmond before them.

Instead it’s the middle of the ground where the Giants will look to win the match. Remarkably, despite losing two A-graders in Stephen Coniglio and Callan Ward to season-ending injuries this year, they were still able to roll out close to the best midfield in the competition.

Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper are underrated as two of the best young midfielders in the competition, while Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield both have the potential to be match-winners.

Toby Greene could play in the middle or could provide another dangerous option up forward – either way, he’s guaranteed to be a nuisance.

Richmond is a side that struggles at the clearances, while the Giants are one the dominates them, and more importantly, know how to score heavily from that.

This is where they’ll look to win the game, and Richmond might not have the quality there to stop them.

The extra weapon for GWS in this battle is the Matt De Boer factor. The former Docker has made a name for himself this year as the best tagger in the league, a reputation that arguably started against this very opposition with his brutal shut-down job on Dustin Martin earlier in the year.

I’ve seen Richmond fans say on social media that they reckon Dion Prestia is actually the better player to send De Boer to, and I agree: if I’m a Tigers fan, that’s exactly what I’d want!

De Boer already knows he can get in Martin’s head – I’d be backing him in to do it again and nullify Richmond’s biggest match-winning threat.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

More intangibly, what can’t be denied is the serious momentum that GWS have managed to build up over the last few weeks. They head into this match with a full head of steam and, stunningly, as the people’s champions.

The ability to win a big match at the MCG has been the biggest hurdle pundits put in front of the Giants for a few years now, but last week they proved they can do exactly that.

A hostile and intimidating Collingwood crowd did not prove too big a barrier to breakthrough, and while Richmond are no less parochial, the more corporate atmosphere of the grand final should prove, if anything, less intimidating.

After being so long criticised as a team that needed everything handed to them and could come across a little soft, the Giants have won their way here against all the odds and through a hitherto undiscovered steely hard edge.

The way they’ve played over this past few weeks could be politely called ‘unsociable football’. Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge would say it’s more like MMA fighting.

Disparage it if you will, it has worked. As I wrote after their semi-final win over Brisbane, “they’ve been tough, uncompromising, and yes, contemptible.” They’ve been Hawthorn-like, in all the best and worst ways.

That will only be helped by the fact GWS have a few loose cannons in the team, some of whom know that today is probably going to be the day they fire their last shot.

Shane Mumford, who if he doesn’t retire will certainly be usurped in the No.1 ruck role by Sam Jacobs next season, has already promised to “send a few bodies flying” to help the team get the win.

He has no reason to fear a lengthy suspension.

Ditto Heath Shaw, who hasn’t been offered a new deal at the club and has already said he’ll probably retire if the Giants salute.

The only AFL footballer with a noble title, he may be a gentleman on the streets but won’t be one on the field.

That’s not to mention this century’s Dennis the Menace, Toby F Greene, or de Boer.

This is a side that won’t be physically intimidated by their opponents – they’ll look to brutalise them, and if Richmond shirk one contest because of it, the Giants will have them for lunch.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Richmond’s momentum on the other hand, it feels strange to say of a side which has won 11 matches in a row, isn’t as good as it looks on paper.

If Brisbane had been more accurate early in the qualifying final they’d have taken them down. If Geelong had the tenacity to close out last week’s prelim, they’d have done the same.

This is a team that has been in losing positions two finals matches in a row, and found a way out of it both times. If they let GWS get a similar advantage today, I’m not sure the Giants will let them back into it.

A curiosity – if probably not a real factor – in all this is that Richmond don’t have the same wave of neutral support behind them in 2019 that they did two years ago.

No longer are they the scrappy underdogs looking to break a longstanding premiership drought. Now they have become the empire, and neutral fans are swept up in the big big sound of GWS making their first grand final.

Am I suggesting that the Giants are going to win the premiership because of the memes? No, of course not – but it would be foolish not to consider the potential psychological impact that comes with this change in narrative roles.

Part of that is simply because the Giants’ club song is unironically a bangin’ tune. But part of it is because, after struggling through injury and showing real resolve, this club has earned our respect.

Will Tigers players be put off their game by the surprising groundswell of popular support for the AFL’s newest club? Look, probably not, though I’ve certainly seen some Tiger fans shaken up by it!

A lot needs to go right for GWS to win the premiership today. That’s exactly the way it should be: they’re the underdogs, they’re outsiders, coming in from a sixth-placed finish on the ladder.

Any one of a dozen things could derail them.

Phil Davis could be not quite right and play a stinker. Lachie Whitfield could do the same. They could get overawed and drop their bundle. De Boer could go to the wrong player – whichever that is – and let the other one off the chain to be a matchwinner.

My tip simply is, that won’t happen.

GWS, unlike maybe any other team in the league, have all the puzzle pieces needed to be Richmond. They’ll fall into place, and the Giants will win their first premiership by a margin of two goals. Toby Greene for the Norm Smith.