There are lots of Australians who think they know what they’re talking about when it comes to the NFL.
If you had asked them last week about the Baltimore Ravens, they would have narrowed their eyes, rubbed their chin and very carefully explained to you why they are the Super Bowl favourites and that Lamar Jackson is simply unstoppable at quarterback.
These people were fooled.
Anybody who went into Sunday morning’s (AEDT) match with their eyes wide open knew the Tennessee Titans were the hottest team in the league. And sure enough, they left those pesky Ravens buried in a shallow grave somewhere on the outskirts of town.
People were laughing at me when on Saturday night I said I was wagering my reputation on the Titans stomping them. Ryan Tannehill has clearly learnt from Nick Foles two years ago and has big plans to crash the NFL play-offs this year. There’s also a lot of resemblance between the Titans’ run and the two New York Giants teams who won in 2008 and 2012.
They have the running game and the league-leading rusher Derrick Henry to make sure that he doesn’t have to take too many risks.
Their defence is solid. It can make stops and it doesn’t have to be on the field all game because of Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill’s synergy.
(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
The Tennessee Titans are a perfect example of what complementary football is, which I would argue is much better than merely having an outstanding defence or an outstanding offence.
Having a good offence and a good defence – two different teams that somehow play together despite never being on the field at the same time – is what separates the men from the boys.
They have to thank excellent head coach Mike Vrabel for putting this all together. He should probably win coach of the year. If he doesn’t, it would be a great shame.
Baltimore had such a dominant regular season, regularly whipping teams, that they completely freaked out when only a few things went wrong for them early on. It was like walking into the VIP room and losing your cool when there isn’t enough ice in the champagne bucket. They behaved like spoilt children who had lost their mother for a few minutes in the supermarket.
What ended up happening was horrible – a classic case of a widespread panic burning a team’s own house down.
Lamar Jackson ended up throwing the football 59 times with a grand total of only nine handoffs going to their running backs. An awful statistic to read.
Their defence tried only for big plays, game-changing interceptions and forced fumbles. As as result Derrick Henry ran for 195 yards and even threw a touchdown himself as Baltimore were unable to stop the run, the first thing one must do in order to beat the Titans.
It is very easy to compare the Raven’s meltdown to Kansas City’s tremendous success the other night.
Patrick Mahomes has had far less chatter about him this season than last season, but he has quietly gone about his work after recovering from a midseason injury. Indeed I would argue that most of his hype has been sucked up Lamar Jackson.
Mahomes is a far better player than Jackson. There is no arguing this if we look at both of their play-off records thus far.
Jackson has had two highly embarrassing public meltdowns, whereas Mahomes in his two seasons has taken Kansas City to the AFC Championship twice, only narrowly missing out on going to the Super Bowl last time against the Patriots.
Yes, on Sunday Mahomes found himself down by 24 points early in the second quarter. He remained calm and targeted Travis Kelce often down the middle of the field for easy completions. He made sure he kept the Texan’s defence on the field for long drives.
Soon they became exhausted and were revealed as the cheap and broken imitation they were. The Texans may have some big names, like JJ Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Bradley Roby, but in truth they’re not up to the task.
The Chiefs had regained the lead by half-time. Then they humiliated Bill O’Brian and the Texans, making them look like complete and utter idiots.
Everybody will talk about their high-powered offence, but it was how Kansas City’s defence complemented their offence that won them the game. They shut down the Texans in the second half, making multiple stops on fourth down, letting them score only one more touchdown.
The NFL is an easy enough sport to come back in due both to a team’s ability to stretch out the length of a game and for the potential for sudden all-or-nothing explosive plays.
The teams that win the Super Bowl are the teams that limit the ability for the opposition to come back into a game after taking an early lead. They are the teams that can run the ball successfully, keeping the clock moving. They are the teams that can successfully play defence, repeatedly get the opposition to third down, make them keep throwing it and wait for mistakes to happen.
The Tennessee Titans are the hottest team in the league. They have the best game plan and system out of the four remaining teams. Against the Chiefs they will win by keeping Mahomes off the field for most of the game.
It will be difficult and the game will go down to the wire, but Derrick Henry can conquer the Chiefs’ defensive line.
Then the team with the closest system to them, the San Fransisco 49ers, will play the Titans after disposing of the Green Bay Packers, who have reached their ceiling.
The 49ers will be a very difficult task for them to beat. Like the Titans, they boast an elite rushing attack with a stud tight end in George Kittle and easily the best defence in the league. They are in fact a much better team than the Tennessee Titans on paper.
But sometimes football, despite how methodically I have just tried to explain it, simply doesn’t make any sense at all. The Tennessee Titans have a feeling about them at the moment, and that is difficult for any team to handle.
Coming in as the sixth seed and playing like lunatics that do not fear anything is a very difficult kind of spirit to stop. Beating the Patriots in Foxborough, wasting the Ravens at home – defeating the Chiefs at Arrowhead would just add another notch in their belt.
Then beating the 49ers doesn’t sound too difficult at all.
mushi
Roar Guru
Is it still within the returns policy window?
Albo
Roar Rookie
Hope you are right Crispy ! After another annoyingly slow start the Chiefs , their defence got sorted and Mahomes got their speedy offence into gear. The Titans wilted late as expected after their tough playoff schedule and Henry was well contained after the first quarter . The 49ers were strong too. So should be a top Super Bowl.
Mitcher
Guest
Like a $5 bottle of red in the bottom of the barrel at Dan Murphys.
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
Good win by your boys this morning Albo. Looks like a 49ers/ Chiefs SB which should be a beauty and I'm hoping the Chiefs can get up for you mate! Prediction: Chiefs - 31, 49ers - 28.
Neil
Guest
He's not wrong though! Texans defence is trash!!!!
Rodger
Guest
For example: It means, that if you have a team that prefers to run the ball, you must have a defence that is capable of not giving up big plays, and a 'bend but don't break' defence so you don't go busting your entire offensive strategy of running the clock down. Say you have Derrick Henry. You can score touchdowns, but it takes 8mins. That's a win win, say if you played Patrick Mahomes. Its 7 points and 3 less Mahomes possessions. If you gave up big plays, your tactic of running the ball to reduce the amount of opponent's possessions is useless. If the opponent can score a touchdown in three or four plays then what was the point? You will not be able to win, because you will not be able to respond in such a swift manner, because you are run first. Mahomes will outscore you. And vice versa: you are a defence that focuses on not giving up big plays, you must expect your offence to get first downs regularly in order to kill a large amount of time for them within the game. They cannot be expected to 'bend but not break' all the game. They will become totally exhausted. But if the opponent knows they have limited possessions, they will inevitably force things and make mistakes. You will get to 3rd down more regularly and find picks. That is complementary football. The statement is very clear, 'two different teams (0ffence and defence), that somehow play together, despite never being on the field at the same time.' Your offence is essentially the cornerstone of your defence. Your defence is what makes your offence so potent.
Ad-O
Guest
Yeah, I got the Titans over KC to.
Sheikh
Roar Rookie
Nice article, but I have a quibble with this section: "on Sunday Mahomes found himself down by 24 points early in the second quarter. He remained calm and targeted Travis Kelce often down the middle of the field for easy completions. He made sure he kept the Texan’s defence on the field for long drives. Soon they became exhausted and were revealed as the cheap and broken imitation they were." The KC 2nd quarter scoring drives which got them back in the game were mainly short, quick drives: - 2 plays, 42 yards, 0:59 - 3 plays, 33 yards, 0:33 - 3 plays, 6 yards, 1:25 - 8 plays, 90 yards, 2:03. Only one drive started in their own half, and at 2 minutes that wasn't exactly grinding it out. It was mainly jumping on Texans mistakes (one good kick-off return, a disastrous fake punt and a fumble). Even the 2nd half scoring drives were fairly quick: - 7 plays, 85 yards, 3:36 (TD) - 6 plays, 77 yards, 3:55 (TD) - 4 plays, 72 yards, 1:32 (TD) - 7 plays, 52 yards, 3:31 (FG). The Chiefs only ran 21 times and had a 9 minute deficit in possession. This wasn't a grind-it-out win exhausting the defence, it was a shock-and-awe comeback demoralising them.
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
Think you're on a winner with the Chiefs Albo. Have to admit that I thought that they'd be the second heavy favourite to go down after being 24(?) behind but that come back was something special. The speed in which it happened and the capacity to go on with it in such emphatic fashion was very (VERY) impressive. I'm hoping for a 49ers/Chiefs SB (as I think it would be a very attacking game) with the Chiefs getting up in a close one. #GoSeahawks-nextseason
Jeansyjive
Roar Rookie
Not to mention the descriptions used about the Texans. I suspect the writer is quite young.
Pete McAloney
Roar Pro
Thanks for the article Jean-Paul, it’s good to read an Aussie take on the NFL. I wish the Roar had more coverage. But! I think you’re very optimistic indeed! Nothing wrong with that and I admire your supporting comments. But I reckon you’re dreaming. I think the Chiefs at home will be too strong. As much as I’d love to see a GB v Ten SB I think it’ll be SF v KC. Which is still ok because the Patriots aren’t there, hurray!
Pete McAloney
Roar Pro
I do agree with this analysis. On top of which the Chiefs will surely be full of self belief after that incredible comeback. I think they will just be too strong across the board. Plus KC has the human walrus as their head coach :silly:
Albo
Roar Rookie
As a Chiefs fan, this match does worry me for much of the expected Titan strategies as outlined by this author. They do have a very controlled running game, Henry is a running beast, they have a new found confidence via big upset wins on the road in the playoffs, and the Chiefs have had a year of defensive queries. However, I would counter all that with the Chiefs again playing at home, Mahomes still on fire conducting the best offensive team in the AFC, a general improvement in the Chiefs defence over recent weeks, experienced Chiefs tacticians directing this weeks game plan to foil the Titans, and the Titans again being on the road after tough recent matches that will likely to take a toll ? A reasonable share of possession should see the Chiefs prevail.
astro
Roar Rookie
This is such a strange article and bordering on incoherent. "Having a good offence and a good defence – two different teams that somehow play together despite never being on the field at the same time – is what separates the men from the boys."... I've re-read this sentence a few times now, and still cant work out what its trying to say. Surely its saying more than 'teams with a good offence and defence are better teams than those with just a good offence or good defence'? And I'm not sure what Lamar Jackson has done to you, but you seem determined to discredit him on the basis of 1 playoff game, despite him having an historic season. This statement is bizarre: "Mahomes is a far better player than Jackson. There is no arguing this if we look at both of their play-off records thus far." Really? No arguing? After Lamar has played 2 playoff games? And any other stat beyond 'playoff record' for two guys at the start of their careers, is irrelevant? If this is the case, there's 'no arguing' Eli is a better QB than Peyton, right?
piru
Roar Rookie
Pack vs Titans for me, but tbh I don't care if it's KC, as long as GB get another shot. It's been too long and some of the other teams are starting to catch up
Steven Harris
Titans don't have the ability to outscore k.c...if Kelce is fit they should go through with San Francisco
Ferghickey36
Roar Rookie
I think saying Lamar Jackson having a public meltdown is a bit harsh, if you watched the game you would then realise that many of the ravens eras came down to coaching and not being prepared, as all season the ravens have been a team that is built on the idea that they will be defending a lead.
XI
Roar Guru
It's a bold strategy, Piru. Let's see if it pays off for them. I'm thinking it'll be 9ers vs KC
piru
Roar Rookie
A lot of big calls in there We'll see how this ages
Mitcher
Guest
What a shame an article with such in depth analysis had to be led with such a smug, childish opening.