2020 has been something of a year.
COVID, rule changes on the fly, momentum controlling games more than ever, some of the teams at the top and enough controversies to get all the way to the start of next year without the need for a new story.
What hasn’t changed though is the Raiders and Storm playing preliminary finals, and nor has the reason they got themselves there.
The forward packs for Craig Bellamy and Ricky Stuart are simply outstanding. There is no other way around it, and while their attacking masterminds will likely get all the credit at the end of the evening whichever way the result goes, this game shapes up as one that’ll be all about the platform being laid in the middle third.
In a game which is likely to be physical, that’ll mean not just the starting forwards, but the bench forwards and the way they carry momentum in the middle portion of the game will be crucial to the result.
The big trend in the NRL this season has been games going all one-way traffic for long periods and then flipping on a dime to go the other way. It’s a trend which has been bleedingly obvious since the six-again rule was introduced, and it’ll determine all the remaining finals, but more so this one.
While there are game-breakers who can do things against the run of play in either side, what you don’t get against the Storm or Raiders is defensive fragility or a lack of professionalism allowing their opposition to make those game-changing plays to turn the game quickly.
When you think about the forwards for these sides, it doesn’t get any more important than the battle between Josh Papalii and Jesse Bromwich.
Both experienced, both representative level forwards and both the leaders of their respective middle thirds.
(Photo by Jono Searle/Getty Images)
While Bromwich always turns up for big games and is likely to do so again this evening, his form doesn’t hold a candle to Papalii’s, who should be the first-picked in Wayne Bennett’s Origin team.
He is the form prop of the competition and showed just how important his role is to the green machine last weekend when he took on the Roosters and emerged with his team’s season intact.
It was an unreal performance, but at this point, it’s more expected than it is a surprise for the booming front-rower who has been locked up in the nation’s capital long term.
Papalii is currently averaging 152 metres per game but is a big-game player. He came up with 189 last week to go with a try.
The back-up brigade for the Raiders isn’t bad either. Joe Tapine has come on in leaps and bounds, Iosia Soliola will give you consistency week in and week out and the duo of Dunamis Lui and Hudson Young from the bench provide plenty.
That isn’t to mention the output of John Bateman, the underrated Elliott Whitehead and the defensive solidness of Tom Starling, who has done a wonderful job in filling the boots left by the injured Josh Hodgson.
While the Raiders pack is fierce and tenacious in the way they go about their business, it still has to aim up to that of the Storm.
Bromwich may give up a little in the leadership stakes to Papalii, but elsewhere, Christian Welch has been in the form of his life and may well partner Papalii up front for the Maroons when Origin kicks off.
He wasn’t excellent last time out against the Raiders with seven missed tackles, but ever since that game, he has averaged a staggering 150 metres per game to go with almost 32 tackles per game. It’s almost as if the one poor performance against Canberra back in Round 9 lit a fire in Welch, and he hasn’t put a foot wrong since.
He will need to be at the top of his game too, given the men in purple are still without the injured Dale Finucane. Nonetheless, man-mountain Nelson Asofa-Solomona lines up at lock and will cause the Raiders all sorts of headaches, while the second row of Felise Kaufusi and Kenny Bromwich are all representative, and all class.
They may well have an edge there over the visitors in terms of consistency with Cameron Smith guiding the team around for the entire 80 minutes.
(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Overall, you’d give the Raiders bench a slight edge, but it’s two players who pull the Storm back into the physicality of the contest. Brandon Smith would be starting at just about any other club, while Tino Fa’asuamaleaui will certainly be doing that on the Gold Coast next year.
The duo could give the Storm an edge because if Craig Bellamy’s side can have an even share of the ball throughout the game, the likes of Cameron Munster, Smith and Ryan Papenhuyzen will get them over the line.
Momentum, physicality and field position will decide this game. The Raiders, away from home and with same-day travel to Brisbane must get a good start to be competitive, but up against a rested Storm side, the battle is an uphill one.
It could well be a game for the rugby league purists. Points will likely be hard to come by, and it just makes this discussion regarding the forwards all the more important.
Do Melbourne have enough without Dale Finucane? Will the Raiders have enough in the tank and enough coming from the bench to compete with Smith and Tino when they get onto the field?
This will be an epic battle in the middle third of the park, but the edge is with Melbourne unless Papalii can pull all the tricks out and inspire his team to the same upset they pulled off in last year’s qualifying final.
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
If you meaning all leagues, I’d be guessing be of the dragons players from that run, one if their immortal blokes. Or you mean NRL GF’s? Cause some of kev’s was done in ARL time’s wouldn’t it?
rick dalton
Roar Rookie
Which nrl player has won the most premierships? Is it kevvie with 6 ? 89 raiders; broncos 92/93/97super league 98/2000. I know Cam Smith would be right up there if it was not for The Storms salary cap dramas. Does kevin Walters hold the title of the most premierships in the modern era. ??????????
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
Why are the comments cut off from the live game.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Cheers Steve I think Nature Strip is the worry...while he can be up and down, he’s obviously being set for this race Speaking of inconsistent, I backed Libertini a couple of weeks ago when she beat Nature Strip and Classique Legend. If she’s up she can give it a shake at about $10
Brendon
Roar Rookie
It would be Smith all over. Just leaving, that's it, no fan fare, no big deal. And I guess could you blame him? He will be complained about no matter what so why not just disappear
steveng
Roar Rookie
Last week I had a good one at Caulfield had a big one on Ole Kirk and called it aday. Tomorrow Very Elleegant shes a beauty and will be very hard to beat, I’ve always been a Gytrash fan and he will come on at the 200m and out sprint them, this is a big race and they have set him up for this, Nature Strip has no chance never beat Gytrash whos a special like the Bunnies :thumbup: :laughing: Ive made my bets but Alfa Oro is a certainty also.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Very confident declaring anyone a special in that field but with the wet she’s going to be very tough to beat What about the Everest? That’s an even harder one to pick. Tossing up between Gytrash, Nature Strip and Libertini Great day of racing I picked five winners at Randwick last week. Unfortunately at Caulfield I only got one and six of my picks ran second...finished with a $6 profit :laughing: Hourly rate not great :laughing:
steveng
Roar Rookie
TB, Caulfield R7 #6 Alfa Oro and R9 Very Elleegant in the CC who are both specials. Should be a great day Sat got some winners right through the day and the Bunnies to finish my winning day off :thumbup: Go You Bunnies!
The Barry
Roar Guru
After 400 NRL + rep games and a season of will he, won’t he, I think we’ll only believe it when we see it It is a bit of a potentially sad aspect to this clash...what a career Smith’s had and it would be a bit of an anti climax if the man with the golden touch went out tonight
The Barry
Roar Guru
Nice summary Scotty Can’t wait for these games...couldn’t have worked out better match ups for these games Your point about the forwards is well made but I wonder how much impact the battle between a half fit Munster and a barnstorming Wighton will determine the outcome? The off-field motivation of avenging last years GF defeat vs sending Cameron Smith out a winner When you look at the teams and their tactics, it’s so hard to pick a winner. The Storm have an edge here, the Raiders have the best of it there, but then the Storm... I hope the game lives up to the hype I’m creating in my head Really looking forward to tomorrow night’s game - after a mouth watering day of racing !!!
Andrew B
Guest
Guys, The flight to the game does disturb the metabolism; a certain but small disadvantage on its own.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Hey BA - good to hear from you ! Hope you’re well !
Heyou
Roar Rookie
A few ‘lucky tackle restarts’ given for ruck infringements may well influence early field position and result in back to back points being scored by one team, while the other team’s big forwards attempt to stop the flow with their tackle count going through the roof. Fatigue may become the burning issue and tactical use of the bench comes into play. Consistency is the key for referees, in awarding set restarts. Consistency will also be the issue regarding how these teams behave in the ruck. Keep it clean and mean or suffer the consequences. It makes for a most exhilarating final three games. Raiders vs Panthers is my GF hope, but these final four have been coached by the best in the business in my humble opinion. Coach Stuart may just have his men hungrier for blood, so to speak, and ready to hunt down their opposition and go in for the kill. I have no serious bets on the outcome, and I certainly don’t rule out Old Boney Legs going for his eighth, or Bellamy, the sly fox, who will have his men primed to strike like lightening and roll over any opposition like thunder rends. Bathurst in the daylight hours and rugby league finals as night descends? How good is that?!!????
BrianK
Roar Rookie
Going to be a cracking game, can not wait!
Walter Black
Guest
Ahhh but Melbourne have a secret plan, They are going to feed Bateman and Williams meat pies at half time.
Nick Maguire
Roar Rookie
WB, Suli is scoring a lot less tries since Cronk hasn't been putting the ball on his head. Yes, he's an automatic overlap in defence.
Phil
Roar Rookie
After reading the story above, an excellent article at that, and reading all of the posts I can't find any reason to lean towards either team tonight. I think it is so evenly matched it could come down to golden point. As for attempting to pick the winner, my granddaughter has insisted I go for Melbourne so it's Melbourne.
kk
Roar Pro
Chris, Can you imagine next season if they get JAC signed and Latrell in full cry with Arrow on board. Unbearable!
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
"My sons concluded that I had gone insane..." ...you should know better kk - no one listens to South's supporters! ;)
King in the north
Roar Rookie
I wasn’t questioning the circumstances around ground selection - rather the disparity in mileage and convenience between the Rabbits playing number 1 (minor premiers) and the Raiders playing number 2. It’s a huge difference, no matter how you rationalise it. The Storm have had a tough year relocated away from their homes and won’t be playing at ‘home’ either. In order of difficulty (from easy to tough), this weekend’s travel efforts favour the Rabbits, followed by Penrith, Storm and Raiders.