In the NRL, there have always been good teams and poor teams. There have always been teams that are well managed and teams that are badly managed. There have always been teams that have been ‘lucky’ when it comes to injury and teams that haven’t.
With that in mind, why are we seeing results play out so differently on the field this year?
In Round 4, seven out of eight matches were decided by 13 points or more (and in some cases, significantly more). To date, only four games in 2021 have been ‘close’, being decided by fewer than six points.
After four rounds, there are three teams with differentials of less than 100: the Canterbury Bulldogs, Manly Sea Eagles and North Queensland Cowboys.
The last time a club had such a dismal differential after just four rounds was back in 2002, when the Cowboys had a differential of -126.
Is it just a coincidence that in 2021 we have four of the worst teams in NRL history competing or is there something more to it?
It’s not just deeply lopsided scorelines that have become a feature. Of more concern, so have injury and concussion.
Rugby league is a contact sport and in any sport, injury is inevitable. But what has changed this year is the number of injuries, particularly concussions.
Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images
According to the Twitter account NRL Physio , there were six concussions in Round 4, wherease the number of concussions per game seems to sit at an average of three and a half.
That means that after just four rounds, there have been 23 concussions. Should this rate continue, we will finish the season with over 150 concussions.
For context, the number has not risen above 100 for the last four years.
Again, some fans might suggest that the reason we are seeing more concussions is because the NRL, clubs and players are taking it more seriously. But is there something more to it?
All this information concerns me as a fan. I don’t watch for blowouts (unless the Parramatta Eels are the team winning) and I don’t like to see concussion after concussion after concussion.
At the moment, I don’t think we have enough data yet to know what is causing all of this. It is most likely a myriad of factors, including some woeful teams, a shorter off season, and some of the hastily-made rule changes that had the intention of keeping the ball in play longer and increasing the ‘speed’ of the game.
Player welfare should be central to the NRL. Certainly, player welfare has been at the heart of the increased work that the game has done around concussion over the last few years.
But after watching some of the quality of 2021 to date, what has been niggling away at me is why on Earth the decision was made to introduce these new rules, particularly if there was any chance they would contribute to more blowouts and increased fatigue, which can result in injury?
Was any thought given as to what the impact of the rule changes would be? Was there consideration as to whether it would lead to increased player fatigue? Did anyone think about whether it would make it harder for teams to stage a miraculous comeback? Was any analysis done as to whether they would expose the gap between good teams and bad teams so dramatically?
If that analysis was done, I would love to see the results. Because that’s what we should be making our decisions based on: hard data and evidence.
I strongly suspect though, that the rule changes were made in response to something else. Consider Peter V’landys’ comments when announcing the changes:
“The message from the fans and our broadcasters has been clear; the game became too predictable and the balance between attack and defence had gone too far in favour of defence,” the ARLC chairman said.
“You’ve got to give the customer what they want. We want to attract new fans to our game and we want our current fans to keep coming back to watch games live at the ground or on TV. It was important to understand what they want.”
ARLC chairman Peter V’landys. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Broadcasters are key stakeholders in the game and they absolutely should have a say in what the game looks like.
But I don’t want them to have too much of a say and I certainly don’t want them to have too much power. In the end, the broadcasters aren’t really focused on making sure the product is at its best, they are focused on ratings – in a world where ratings will continue to decline as more people stream sport through other devices.
Incredibly, Channel Nine had a bumper year last year, yet still managed to get a discount on the NRL ratings when the new broadcast deal was announced. It’s clear the broadcaster has tremendous power.
I just worry what this power will lead to, particularly when we are seeing new rules hastily introduced that are potentially contributing to increased risk of injury for our players, more predictable results, and a wider chasm between the good, the bad and the ugly.
Rellum
Roar Guru
That should have always been the rule, and do you know what, they get to all those things that you listed because they get a penalty and attack against 12 men. So you win all round! But I am guessing you still wont be happy.
Short Memory
Guest
No cynical penalties? Did you not notice the new tweak on the new tweak to send off players for third cynical penalty in a row? This had to be introduced because coaches quickly figured out they could slow down the ruck deliberately and give the attacking team another set - but NO OTHER ADVANTAGE - ie no kick for touch to gain ground, no kick at goal to add points, no time to set up a set play for a tap restart (All, in my view, elements that add variety in play, skill and tactics) Instead we lots of predictable get one out hit ups from the attack, and lots of predictable holding down (first tackle of a turn-over set, every tackle inside the 10m when the attacking team has advantage). And less injuries? Seriously??? What evidence are you basing that on?
Short Memory
Guest
Exactly. Play the balls aren't faster. The wrestle is still happening. None of that has been eliminated. All that has been eliminated is the attacking team's options in how to take advantage of the infringement. Same amount of wrestle. Less variety in the play.
Short Memory
Guest
Exactly. The Roosters are not a weak team. Nor are the Eels. But we've seen what happened to both when their opponents got momentum and dominated possession. Without recovery time, performance deteriorates, leading errors, offsides and slower rucks, leading to more possessions for the opponent, leading to more fatigue, leading to... well, you get the idea...
Short Memory
Guest
Good observation. I'd love to see penalties inside the 10m zone give a kick at goal AND get possession back from a 10m tap. That would put a stop to cynical penalties deliberately given away to slow the attacking team's momentum, and we'd see more tries. The new rules haven't eliminated this. Teams are happily giving away multiple sets of six to let their defensive line get set. Even the Dragons after Sims was sent off continued doing it. But if the attacking team got 2 points and the ball back it would stop quick smart.
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
RL in the 70's & 80's had limited substitution & once a player was off couldn't come back on again - so whats the big deal now? All i can see is coaches & players aren't training for the newer faster game, still too many muscle bound boofheads who want to smash someone
AnonLurker
Roar Rookie
Nothing wrong with the rules. Coaches are the issue . Players know how to wrestle more than tackle. Also how I would have stopped the wrestle , would be legs /1v1 tackles is considered the dominate tackle and players can slow the play the ball . 2 or more involved , they have to realise immediately and ping them for 6again if not. This will bring back skill of actual tackles and less gang tackles means less hia and injuries .... the injuries are occurring due to these warped wrestle tackles , watch any tackle and see what unnatural position body is put under no wonder thei bodies are stressed and they get injuries innocuously
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
the scrum is like 12 blokes playing twister, and it gave the backs 1 play with heaps of room for a set move. while the RL scrum is a joke, it was good for that 1 play
Rellum
Roar Guru
I will get back to you on this. life is too busy right now :)
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
if it's more attacking now we should be seeing more points scored by everyone across the board and we're not. I agree these changes have changed the game but not improved anything. Contrary to what some have said I want to know what's been ruled on and Six Again is not good enough, I want to know why it's awarded.
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
"hardly any passing pre 2020...." unless you were watching the Storm running play after play tackle after tackle. They worked the ball on every tackle once inside the opposition half. Cooper Cronk was dynamic moving from left ot right tackle to tackle to direct plays. Meanwhile Sydney clubs were just hitting it up.....
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
That is a huge presumption that the impact of the changes wasn’t considered thoroughly. That data wasn’t used and input wasn’t sought from people with knowledge of the game at the coal face (players and coaches). We think that Vlandys go to be successful just making off the cuff decisions without consultation. The truth is, none of us are privy to what was discussed when the changes were agreed and what data was used. It is more than a tad premature to say the changes are a failure after four rounds. The clubs that are struggling are clubs that have either managed their salary cap poorly, (the Dogs, Manly and Cowboys), under invested in facilities and junior development (Manly and the Dogs), made awful recruitment decisions (all three) or changed the coaches like they change their socks and when they do, they hire newbies (Dogs, Manly, Cowboys). Then there is the boardroom battles at the Dogs and Manly. Those two clubs are so internally focussed I bet they didn’t even know the rules had been changed until half time in the first round.
Cadfael
Roar Guru
I think union's use of the TMO is something league could look at.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Scores didn’t even out as the season went on in 2020. There were 22 margins of 20+ in rounds 1-10 and 24 in rounds 11-20 There were 11 30+ margins in rounds 1-10 and also 11 in rounds 11-20 There were four 40+ margins in rounds 1-10 and five in rounds 11-20
The Barry
Roar Guru
I’m not salty at all... as I’ve said I’m very open minded about the rules, but ATM I’m seeing a lot of downsides and not a lot of up You’re blindly saying “it’s working, the games faster, the games better” but there’s objective evidence that it’s not You say “those stats are too simplistic...” maybe they are, but those stats along with increased errors, increased missed tackles, lopsided score lines doubling, lack of upsets and increasing injury tolls are more sophisticated than anything you’ve put forward to support your theory that the rules are working I love rugby league. I’m not death riding these rules. I’d rather be sitting here saying “these new rules have worked. The NRL is right. The game is faster and less predictable.” But it’s not One way or another I look forward to that “I was wrong” beer too... :stoked:
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
1. Yes it is not known how long they will be out so maximise the punishment to discourage illegal play. It would be silly to reduce a sentence because the victim recovers or doesn't look too bad. 2. You are right about the carry over effect, I know all about that. In 1972 I was 16 when I was knocked out badly in a trial game. I spent the whole year getting knocked out so I gave the game away although I did play for ANU in 1977 before leaving Canberra. When doing exams I would get stuck on simple problems as my brain seemed to over heat. I expected to get 100% in my 2F exam but I got stuck differentiating a quadratic. It was depressing although I did get a degree with majors in Pure and Applied Maths as I was able to do assignments at home.
Rellum
Roar Guru
We haven't buggered the game and those stats are far too simplistic to make your case. You are getting salty on this mate. You haven't given the rules a chance and the scores did start to even out last year as the season went on, as teams got used to the new rules. It will happen again this year so I will be waiting for that "I got it wrong" beer at the end of the year. :silly: By the way no one in Sydney cared when Brisbane teams disappeared so I don't see why Sydney teams get special treatment. They are franchises now, if they are making a loss they will get cut or moved. That is the deal they made entering the NRL. Contracts mean little. If you want real reasons why the Standard between the top and bottom teams look at the way players are developed and the standard of the off field people. There are too many teams in "reserve grade". There needs to be a reduction in the State comps, combine them and make two tiers, align one team per NRL franchise to make sure there are more competitive games in the State leagues. Or we just lose all the old State league teams and have a mindless reserve grade comp.
Paul
Roar Guru
"Massive suspensions are fine and should be in proportion to the damage done," I understand your point but am still not sure that's the right way to go. At the time Kaufusi was charged by the judiciary, no-one could have any idea how long Matterson would be out of the game, making it well nigh impossible to make the punishment fit the crime, so to speak. Far better IMO to make the punishment draconian, so players are discouraged from illegal play. There's also a carry over effect. If you get hit once in the head, that impact carries over to the next time you get hit in the head which carries over, etc. In other words, an illegal hit can have long term effects on players, including shortening their careers, which can't be known at the time an offender is punished.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
The RLPA should be all over the matter
bbt
Roar Rookie
Sport, like music, depends upon tension and release to engage. You can create a faux experience by creating a frenzy, but, like junk food, it will not sustain you. This obsession with "speed" is going to create, as a few writers says, a version of touch football.