The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 11

Can you believe it? After this weekend, each team will be halfway through their home-and-away campaign.

The midpoint of the season has really snuck up on us but, fortunately, it looks like everyone’s finally got themselves into a good tipping rhythm.

Adelaide’s stirring one-point win over the previously undefeated Demons cost most tippers a point, as did Greater Western Sydney’s heroic effort sans Toby Greene against the Eagles. Those matches forced myself and Dem Panopoulos to settle for scores of seven, while Liam Salter and the Crowd were also marked down thanks to Fremantle’s thrilling win over Sydney.

It means the tipping ladder is looking as exciting as ever; Dem and Liam are equal on 60, just behind The Crowd on 61. I’m also doing brilliantly… just in other areas of life.

Stirling Coates

Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Brisbane, St Kilda, Gold Coast, West Coast, Richmond, Sydney, Port Adelaide

You can’t ask for much more than the top two sides going head-to-head on a Friday night to kick the round off.

The Bulldogs can move to 10-1 for the first time since 1946 if they get up tonight but, fun fact, that season saw the Demons knock them off in the semis. Both sides have looked extraordinarily good so far, but the Doggies have been that smidgeon more extraordinary and should be strong enough to get the job done.

It’s a good think that game’s a blockbuster, because the remainder of Round 11 should be fairly smooth sailing.

Collingwood vs Geelong has been a classic in years gone by, but this edition will likely be one of the most boring games of the year. There are few things on the planet right now that are less threatening than the Magpies’ ball movement.

The Cats haven’t been exciting but, unlike the Pies, they’re also good. Geelong will kick nine goals and still by win by more than 20.

The Giants deserve all the credit in the world for getting it done last Sunday with an injury list as big as the crowd, but they won’t be as lucky this weekend against the red-hot Brisbane Lions – especially at The Gabba.

We’ve all figured out St Kilda by now. They’ll blow the Kangas away this week to trick an ever-shrinking portion of their fan-base that 2020 will be repeated, but it won’t. They’re finished.

Gold Coast simply have to take care of the Hawks if they’re to claim they’ve made any progress in 2021. Hawthorn have never ever played in Darwin so, if they spring the upset, it might be time for Stuart Dew to start feeling the heat for the first time.

Stuart Dew. (Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Saturday night’s other game is one of the easiest to tip. The Eagles are at home. They’ll win.

In fact, home ground advantage looks to be the decisive factor for Sunday’s games too. Richmond against Adelaide? I’d be breathing a huge sigh of relief that this game isn’t being played at the Adelaide Oval if I were a Tigers fan. At the MCG, they’ll get up by a tick under five goals.

Carlton have a mostly deplorable record at the SCG over the years, but the dimensions suit them fairly well and I think they’ll give the Swans a good shake. That said, Sydney are still in very good form and are good enough to salute.

Finally, Port Adelaide fans would also be relieved to hear they’re not playing the Dockers in Perth, otherwise they’d also be at risk of a boilover. Freo will make them earn it, but Port should get up.

Despite this round having few headscratchers, there aren’t that many obvious candidates for the Shoe-In this week either. Best I can do is the clinical Cats over the cold Pies.

Dem Panopoulos

Melbourne, Geelong, Brisbane, St Kilda, Gold Coast, West Coast, Richmond, Carlton, Port Adelaide

It’s hard to gauge whether AFL tipping or cryptocurrency is a more volatile market.

The leaderboard is settling down and as the games continue to provide unexpected results, every footy fan is made to look silly, no matter what their predictions are.

Round 11 looks to be a good one already, hopefully the pandemic won’t hurt the games too much.

Kicking off with the top of the ladder clash, we have an intriguing game that perhaps has a few question marks on the team that lost to Adelaide last week.

The Bulldogs have the best offensive and defensive record, while the Demons have remained relatively consistent behind the ball and running hard towards the end of games.

Melbourne were a victim of their own complacency, and I have a sneaking suspicion that they may prove everyone wrong and bounce back to show they’re a genuine team this week. Jack Viney would be a welcomed inclusion.

Geelong and Collingwood usually match-up well enough for an entertaining game and the momentum for both teams has taken a bit of a turn. Even depleted, I’d expect the Cats to get up, but the Magpie defence only needs to maintain current performances to go close.

The Lions have found their groove and should beat the impressive Giants comfortably, with Sam Taylor’s absence only further destroying the fabric of their 22.

St Kilda may well beat North Melbourne by ten goals and I wouldn’t see it as an accurate reflection of how either team is going. The Saints have been playing like a bottom four team all season and it’s only catching up to them now.

The two Saturday night games aren’t exactly marquee contests, but both should be close enough to get us excited. The Suns should be picking up their fourth win of the season, while West Coast playing at home is seemingly the only reason one would tip them in 2021.

Richmond should beat Adelaide easily, while Carlton’s structure might trouble the Swans more than people think.

Finally, Port face Fremantle in a sneakily good game. Port Adelaide’s form hasn’t picked up since we discussed it six weeks ago, it’s just that they’re losing the games now for people to notice.

This will come down to which of Rory Lobb and Charlie Dixon can dominate an undersized defence more. It feels like a Dixon sort of game.

Liam Salter

Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Brisbane, St Kilda, Gold Coast, West Coast, Richmond, Sydney, Port Adelaide

A solid six for me last week. Cannot begrudge the Crows and GWS for ruining my tips, given their sensational upsets, while it’s a case of damned if I do, damned if I don’t when it comes to tipping Freo. COVID-19 worries in Melbourne exist, but there’s one very clear choice for clash of the week: the Dogs taking on the Dees tomorrow night.

While we don’t have the battle of the undefeated teams we were promised, the clash should be a beauty. The Doggies have gone from highs to low this week, from their triple-figure win to being caught in a COVID isolation drama, while the Demons suffered their first speedbump of the season, losing to the Crows.

The Doggies win some and lose some – Tim English should finally be back to compete against Max Gawn, though Adam Treloar is out for weeks with the syndesmosis injury that seems to be in vogue league-wide.

I do like the Demons this year, and desperately want a close game, but I’m going to back the Doggies. I just trust them more.

(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Saturday throws a mixed bag at us. The Saints facing North will be something. I’m not sure what, but expect the Saints to win while everybody else loses. West Coast host Essendon in Perth in primetime. The duo are coming off opposite results – the Eagles a thoroughly disappointing loss, the Bombers a big win – and this clash is the home side’s to lose.

The Giants should be competitive against the Lions, but I’m going to go with the home team – they’ll see off the challenge with a win.

Sunday’s games are an intriguing bunch. The day’s final clash in Adelaide should run along a familiar script: Port should be good enough to beat Freo, though the visitors will make it closer than most predict.

That’s much the same story with the Richmond-Adelaide clash a few hours earlier. Richmond really, really need this win, finding themselves in an unfamiliar position outside the eight almost midway through the season.

The Crows successfully took down the Demons last week, and are sure to be more than competitive, but I’m thinking the premiers should be bouncing back here.

Sydney and Carlton will be fun, with the SCG’s setting bound to benefit a Carlton side that lacks some pace through the midfield. I’m going to back the Swans here – they’re simply a level better than the disappointing Blues – but I wouldn’t particularly be surprised at all if we see an upset.

To finish up, I’d usually be noting clashes that are easy to tip, but honestly, there’s not a lot of them.

Geelong will have a performance that doesn’t impress yet does enough to earn a win against the Magpies and I’d back the Suns to perform well enough in Darwin to beat the struggling Hawks, but every single game this weekend has upset potential.

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