The more things change at the Warriors, the more they stay the same.
After another off-season with significant alterations made to the roster, the team enters the new year facing the same old dilemma – will they be able to string enough quality performances together to make the finals?
The answer each season is usually no.
With the departure of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck to the New Zealand rugby ranks, the Warriors are in need of a new leader and a fresh face to keep fans interested despite the team spending a third straight season on the wrong side of the Tasman due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Tohu Harris has been named the new captain but will miss the start of the season due to the ACL tear he suffered in July.
The marquee name replacing RTS as the club’s biggest name is Shaun Johnson, returning after three years at the Sharks following his acrimonious exit at the end of 2018.
Johnson is still an elite attacking weapon and the challenge for coach Nathan Brown will be settling on a complementary halves partner. Kodi Nikorima is probably the ideal foil for a creative spark like Johnson whereas young gun Chanel Harris-Tavita could be too similar to the new/old recruit.
CHT is reportedly already seeing the writing on the wall and looking elsewhere with the Warriors also showing their lack of faith in him by signing young Cronulla half Luke Metcalf for 2023.
With reliable hooker Wayde Egan and talented fullback Reece Walsh also locked in long term, the Warriors have the makings of a top-quality spine.
They also have strength in their forwards and potent scoring in the backs.
But with the squad forced to base itself at Redcliffe after spending most of the past two seasons at Gosford, their finals chances yet again don’t pass the sniff test.
Only the brave or foolhardy would believe the Warriors are destined to make the playoffs in 2022.
CHT’s plight is emblematic of many young Warriors in recent years. Eliesa Katoa is another who has faced a similar scenario where he was viewed as a long-term solution one minute then deemed part of the problem and surplus to the NRL team’s requirements.
Katoa burst onto the scene in 2020 and looked like the ideal edge forward the Warriors had been craving since Simon Mannering’s retirement a couple of years beforehand.
However, Katoa was in and out of first grade last season and is no guarantee to be in the run-on team in round one.
Shaun Johnson. (AAP Image/SNPA, Martin Hunter)
The likes of Isaiah Papali’i, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Marata Niukore have also been hampered for opportunities at the Warriors and ended up leaving for greener pastures in Australia. Niukore is returning in 2023 at a much-higher price after excelling at Parramatta for the past three seasons.
For more than a quarter of a century, there has been an expectation that the Warriors are the sleeping giants of the premiership.
They get plenty of sympathy for their plight over the past couple of seasons being forced to play away from home but it’s about time the sleeping giants rouse from their slumber and live up to their potential otherwise it will become a full-blown hibernation.
Brown has a mammoth task in front of him to get the Warriors back in playoff contention – after his stints at the Dragons and the Knights ended short of expectations, coaches very rarely get another chance if they have three underwhelming entries on their resume.
What’s new
Shaun Johnson is hardly a new face at the club but his return after three years at Cronulla could give them the attacking spark they’ll need to replace Roger Tuivasa-Sheck now that he’s trying his hand at rugby.
They’ve also added young New Zealander Aaron Pene from Melbourne while ex-Titans playmaker Ash Taylor and Broncos utility back Jesse Arthars could be bargain pick-ups.
Star on the rise
Josh Curran played one game for the Roosters in 2019, then two for the Warriors after switching mid-season and three the following year. Last season he broke the sequence with an eye-catching 14-game stint in which the second-rower regularly got through a mountain of work in defence but also created plenty of opportunities in attack.
Who’s under the pump
As has historically been the case with this club, the coach can never be certain of seeing out their contract. Nathan Brown is in season two of a three-year deal and after an underwhelming first campaign under his guidance, anything short of a finals berth will turn up the heat on his future.
Best-case scenario
Their roster construction over the past couple of years has been strong with Addin Fonua-Blake and Reece Walsh coming on board while Shaun Johnson’s recent return gives them more attacking flair. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck’s switch to rugby is a body blow but the Warriors have genuine depth in all positions and could threaten for the top six ballpark if they click in 2022.
Worst-case scenario
They’re facing a third straight season playing away from home, basing themselves at Redcliffe and crossing their fingers they’ll be able to play some games in New Zealand. The fatigue of their unique circumstances could be a factor and despite showing plenty of resilience over the past two years, the Warriors still haven’t been able to crack the finals and could again finish in purgatory of the 10th to 14th range. Or worse.
Round 1 predicted team
1. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
2. Marcelo Montoya
3. Adam Pompey
4. Rocco Berry
5. Jesse Arthars
6. Kodi Nikorima
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Wayde Egan
10. Matt Lodge
11. Euan Aitken
12. Josh Curran
13. Jazz Tevaga
14. Chanel Harris-Tavita
15. Bunty Afoa
16. Eliesa Katoa
17. Ben Murdoch-Masila
Others: Reece Walsh (suspended until Round 2), Tohu Harris, Edward Kosi, Jack Murchie, Taniela Otukolo, Aaron Pene, Iliesa Ratuva, Pride Petterson-Robati, Bailey Sironen, Viliami Vailea
watcher
Guest
Yes, in top 30
warriors2019
Roar Rookie
Hi is Junior Ratuva still signed with the Warriors?
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
If that's true that's a real shame because they have the talent.
Dionysus
Guest
"I think they will start strong but fade out as being permanently based away from home starts to take a toll." Not to take anything away from the Warriors but if this was true, it didn't impact Melbourne too much did it ? Melbourne have spent nearly as long playing away from home this last 2 years as the Warriors but they have walked away with a Premiership and a minor premiership. The Warriors have a strong enough squad to surprise a few and then all they need is a bit of momentum and they will be finals. It will be 7th or eight no higher but they can get in.
adam smith
Roar Rookie
I don't think a good coach would make much of a difference, with the shambles that is their management/ownership.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Nothing personal against the Warriors. I wish them well. Nevertheless unless something changes radically their squad's '21 stats put them solidly in the bottom 4. The loss of RTS severely damages the Warriors' prospects. In 21 they ranked 13th for Run Metres - without RTS and with SJ that total drops significantly, putting them last. Line Breaks they ranked 13th - without RTS they drop to 15th, above only the Dogs. Tackle Breaks they ranked 12th - and yes, you guessed it, without RTS they drop to 14th, above only Cows and Dogs. Nathan Brown's win percentage 33.3% places him above only Barrett, Walters and Payten and level with Griffin. Arguably all of those squads apart from Cowboys have improved their roster for 22 season. For my money, the Warriors and Cowboys will be battling it out for the spoon.
watcher
Guest
As a Warriors fan the two biggest problems we had last year were injuries and Halves that could direct play and finish games off. Fonua-Blake, Egan, Harris-Tavita, Katoa, Harris, Berry, Aitken all had significant injury issues. As for Halves we have lost Sean O'Sullivan, but have gained Sean Johnson and Ash Taylor, Sean is a guy who gives 100% but his ceiling is nothing like SJ and Ash. Kodi Nikorima is in his final year of contract so will be looking to take the most of any opportunity. Personally I see Harris-Tavita as a 14, his defence is up to it and is a precaution with SJ's injury woes. I have us in the 8, particularly if we have a better run with injuries. Although we do have some depth now.
Danno
Roar Rookie
I can’t believe Flanagan didn’t get a head coaching role for 2022 , I’d sign him up quicksmart
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Sadly I cant think of any that have or are coming thru the junior or lower ranks as coaches. I thought Stacey Jones was coming on well but not to be so far anyway.?
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
"Coaches very rarely get another chance if they have three underwhelming entries on their resume." Ivan Cleary says hi.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
I agree, surely the Warriors can find someone better than Brown. I think of all the really good Kiwi players to have played for them. Surely one is up to the task.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
"only 10 win" is a very high bar for most teams
Nick Maguire
Roar Rookie
Prefer others as the saying goes. Potentially the @r$e end of the 8 but this group won't succeed or fail based on physical ability. It's going to take buying into a convincing story, amazing discipline and a highly motivating coach to keep this gang turning up and giving everything for 80 each week. What have we seen in the past from these players and this coach to suggest that is possible?
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Id love to see some fresh coaches come in to the NRL. At the moment all we seem to get is recycled failed coaches all just swapping teams.
Succhi
Roar Rookie
I think they will start strong but fade out as being permanently based away from home starts to take a toll. I don’t rate Brown as a coach. I reckon he’ll be gone before the season ends - trouble is there are not a lot of other coaching options. Maybe Green or Flanagan?
Albo
Roar Rookie
The Warriors will have a more than handy pack, an x-factor attacking fullback, but a very ordinary backline and queries on their halfback combination. The health of Johnson and his attitude to his role back at the Warriors will be key to their success or failure in 2022. They will miss the leadership of RTS. Hopefully Harris & Curran can compensate there.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
That de possession by Roger TS on Jordan Rapana denying Raiders victory last season, you wont see anything better, now but a memory.
Paul
Roar Guru
I don't think it takes any bravery at all the think the Warriors can make the finals, given it only takes 10 wins to get there. The advantages I think they have this season include, knowing well beforehand where they're going to be based, hopefully travel between NZ and Australia will be freed up by the time the season starts, they've got a pretty fair squad and if injuries don't cruel them, are as good a chance as any of 6 or 7 teams to make the bottom rungs in finals.
KenW
Roar Rookie
As ever they look a decent enough side on paper. Hard to see any reason for them to be better performed next year though, and a number of reasons that they could fall.
Stephen Lowry
Guest
I predict the warriors will have a very underwhelming year with plenty of injuries. At the end of the season they will sit somewhere between 10th and 14th on the ladder.