With the buzz and anticipation building with the 2022 season just one sleep away, like many pundits I have had a go at my ladder after the final home-and-away round of 2022.
My 2022 ladder prediction
I see the Western Bulldogs, smarting from last year’s grand final defeat, taking the top spot with a consistent set of performances throughout the year.
I expect Melbourne to be thereabouts, although I note the significant possibility of a let-down following last year’s heroics. Significant slippage has happened a number of times to teams that have won premierships after long droughts, notably Collingwood in 1991 and the Western Bulldogs in 2017.
I expect Richmond to bounce back hard this year. This could well be the final shot in the locker for the veterans at Punt Road. I also expect Brisbane, who came agonisingly close to a preliminary final last year, to be back near the top echelon.
I am confident that with the blend of exciting youngsters and now more seasoned types that GWS can be in the top eight. Unlike others, I do not see a significant drop for Port Adelaide. Although they stumbled badly on their preliminary final evening last year, their best is good enough for a top-eight finish, although they may not obtain the double chance.
Rounding out the top eight are Geelong and Essendon. While many have predicted Geelong to fall off the proverbial cliff, I expect a steady decline rather than a dramatic fall. Their home-ground advantage and their stable of proud veterans should ensure another solid finish. I expect Essendon to be in the lower reaches of the eight. Some early-season injury worries and some issues with the quality of their spine have me thinking that they will just scrape into the top group.
Outside the top eight I have Carlton, St Kilda and the Swans just missing out. Overall these sides lack the full, rounded capability to make the top group. Carlton without Liam Jones might struggle a bit down back, and they appear to lack multiple options for scoring, while St Kilda’s midfield depth is questionable. I also have a sense the Swans may have overachieved last year.
I expect West Coast to struggle with their ageing list and the absence of real regeneration in the ranks.
Collingwood are interesting. I wrote a while ago that there are grounds for optimism at the Magpies. While this may still be true, some injuries to their defensive stocks and the lack of a gun forward will see them roughly 13th, but nonetheless there is likely to be some improvement from their 17th of last year.
They have sufficient class and experience across the board in Scott Pendlebury, Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey, Jeremy Howe and the like, and the emergence of promising youngsters to ensure that they will not finish right at the bottom of the ladder.
Fremantle’s predicted 14th spot may well be surprisingly low, but it’s hard to get a proper reading as to where they are. The departure of Adam Cerra will hurt, and in general they’re a side that promise but don’t deliver.
In the bottom ranks of the ladder are Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Adelaide and North Melbourne. Of this group, Stuart Dew will be under most pressure, but there are still holes in the list, and the season-long absence through injury of Ben King will hurt significantly.
The other three sides arguably are in full rebuild mode. It will take some years before the full effects of drafting are felt, although in the case of North Melbourne Jason Horne-Francis could have an immediate and significant impact.
I expect that this year will be somewhat of a holding pattern, with not a lot of change in the top eight from the end of the home-and-away season. The only change predicted is for Sydney to fall outside the eight, their place taken by Richmond, and for some swapping of positions in the top eight, notably that Port Adelaide and Geelong fall out of the top four and are replaced by Richmond and the Western Bulldogs.
Very rarely are there wholesale changes to ladder positions – it generally takes time for clubs to develop their lists and for others to fall off the perch.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Is 5th or 17th an each way bet on the Cats Klompy?
ChuckIt
Roar Rookie
Yet they couldn't best Carlton who are truely their way up but not in the top 8 in this prediction. Looks like I'm not confused.
Klompy
Guest
My very bold predictions for the 2022 AFL Season is. 1 Melbourne 2 Western Bulldogs.3 Port Adelaide.4 Brisbane. 5 Geelong. 6 Richmond. 7 West Coast Eagles. 8 Fremantle. 9 Greater Western Sydney. 10 Sydney Swans. 11 Essendon. 12 Carlton 13 North Melbourne. 13 St Kilda. 14 Gold Coast 15 Adelaide Crows. 16. Hawthorn. Geelong. 18 Collingwood.
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
"I also have a sense the Swans may have overachieved last year." I start to think that but remember Swans finished 2020 full of running despite having terrible run with injury. So they didn't really come out of nowhere. And consider they went into that final last year without Blakey, Mills and Kennedy... The pointers are they're on the rise. However, many teams take 2 steps forward, one step back, so Swans might yet slip. Tiges 2015/16 then flag in 2017 are the poster child for it.
Steve J
Roar Guru
Freo's first 10 rounds is probably the best case scenario for Freo fans Games against the Saints, Suns, Eagles, Crows, Roos, Pies, Bombers and Blues don't pose any clear and present danger. All very winnable, given injuries and COVID issues aside The Cats are Kardinia will be a real test for the team given the past 3-5 years worth of efforts, but if Freo can actually feld a defence unlike last year then they should get a better result.
Cozzy
Roar Rookie
Just wishful thinking JamesH.....Playing all h&a games wearing the prison bar jumper, Just like Dunkley playing for Port... just a dream my friend!
Maxy
Roar Rookie
lol If he came he might get to wear it maybe 1 time a year if what I read is true
JamesH
Roar Guru
Why would he be playing SANFL?
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
With that shiny dome, a bowling ball is a good simile.
Maxy
Roar Rookie
No Don.I expect good things from SPP this year.He was pulled aside and told what is required of him,I expect a big response from him.Him and Ollie will be clearing packs like bowling pins at a bowling alley when you get a strike
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Put you glasses down and do your homework, Tigers don’t have a player on their list over the age of 33. Look in your own backyard - how old is Mundy? Gibcus 18, plays his first game alongside 2 AFL captains. Ralphsmith plays round 1. There is talk of Brown and Sonsie getting a run sooner rather than later, both 18. The Tigers draw is the easiest I can remember and we’re playing in front of the Tiger army, 75 to 80,000 against the Blues Thursday night!
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Yep, I’ll educate you Don. Gibcus is 18, plays round 1 and rated the best key position player in the draft. Sonsie was a top 5 prospect until injured and was a steal at the draft, also 18. Brown has been training the house down yes 18 as well as 2 other 18 year old top 30 picks. With Soldo virtually a new recruit, Dusty, Broad, Prestia, Cotch and Edwards all fresh and a draw as easy as a Cats normal home and away season - it’s back to finals!
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
I can see you are Confused, only 4 players, played 22 games last year. 4 years of deep finals experience means players needed a physical as well as a mental rest. The experts are aware of this. With Soldo, Balta, Broad and Dusty back as well as improving kids like Baker and Bolton, a steal in the draft Gibcus who plays round 1, Sonsie and Brown also in there with another kid Ralphsmith who plays round 1, there is only one way - up!
J.T.Delacroix
Guest
This could well be a break out year for Fremantle. I know it sounds a little crazy, but tenth position is a distinct possibility. You just never know….
Diesel-747
Roar Rookie
The excitement has me a day ahead DTM
Lukey Miller
Guest
GWS to make GF if they get a decent run with injuries. My tip to win it. Eagles for the spoon as covid and chronic injuries exacerbate their deficiencies.
M. Rockatansky
Guest
Can't fault that, they are a tease. I reckon their issues in front of the sticks go back at least to 2013.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
It’s bad news for the Dogs though as my tipping is usually awful. Dees to have a minor hangover and have a slow start to the year while dogs will be out to make amends for last years final.
DTM
Roar Rookie
They'll be stuffed for Thursday night then?
PeteB
Roar Rookie
Yeah I’d have Sydney and Freo higher and West Coast lower but nothing outlandish in it.