My bold predictions for the 2022 AFL ladder

With the buzz and anticipation building with the 2022 season just one sleep away, like many pundits I have had a go at my ladder after the final home-and-away round of 2022.

My 2022 ladder prediction

1. Western Bulldogs
2. Melbourne Demons
3. Brisbane Lions
4. Richmond Tigers
5. Greater Western Sydney Giants
6. Port Adelaide Power
7. Geelong Cats
8. Essendon Bombers
9. Carlton Blues
10. St Kilda Saints
11. Sydney Swans
12. West Coast Eagles
13. Collingwood Magpies
14. Fremantle Dockers
15. Hawthorn Hawks
16. Gold Coast Suns
17. Adelaide Crows
18. North Melbourne Kangaroos

I see the Western Bulldogs, smarting from last year’s grand final defeat, taking the top spot with a consistent set of performances throughout the year.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

I expect Melbourne to be thereabouts, although I note the significant possibility of a let-down following last year’s heroics. Significant slippage has happened a number of times to teams that have won premierships after long droughts, notably Collingwood in 1991 and the Western Bulldogs in 2017.

I expect Richmond to bounce back hard this year. This could well be the final shot in the locker for the veterans at Punt Road. I also expect Brisbane, who came agonisingly close to a preliminary final last year, to be back near the top echelon.

I am confident that with the blend of exciting youngsters and now more seasoned types that GWS can be in the top eight. Unlike others, I do not see a significant drop for Port Adelaide. Although they stumbled badly on their preliminary final evening last year, their best is good enough for a top-eight finish, although they may not obtain the double chance.

Rounding out the top eight are Geelong and Essendon. While many have predicted Geelong to fall off the proverbial cliff, I expect a steady decline rather than a dramatic fall. Their home-ground advantage and their stable of proud veterans should ensure another solid finish. I expect Essendon to be in the lower reaches of the eight. Some early-season injury worries and some issues with the quality of their spine have me thinking that they will just scrape into the top group.

Outside the top eight I have Carlton, St Kilda and the Swans just missing out. Overall these sides lack the full, rounded capability to make the top group. Carlton without Liam Jones might struggle a bit down back, and they appear to lack multiple options for scoring, while St Kilda’s midfield depth is questionable. I also have a sense the Swans may have overachieved last year.

I expect West Coast to struggle with their ageing list and the absence of real regeneration in the ranks.

Collingwood are interesting. I wrote a while ago that there are grounds for optimism at the Magpies. While this may still be true, some injuries to their defensive stocks and the lack of a gun forward will see them roughly 13th, but nonetheless there is likely to be some improvement from their 17th of last year.

They have sufficient class and experience across the board in Scott Pendlebury, Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey, Jeremy Howe and the like, and the emergence of promising youngsters to ensure that they will not finish right at the bottom of the ladder.

Fremantle’s predicted 14th spot may well be surprisingly low, but it’s hard to get a proper reading as to where they are. The departure of Adam Cerra will hurt, and in general they’re a side that promise but don’t deliver.

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

In the bottom ranks of the ladder are Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Adelaide and North Melbourne. Of this group, Stuart Dew will be under most pressure, but there are still holes in the list, and the season-long absence through injury of Ben King will hurt significantly.

The other three sides arguably are in full rebuild mode. It will take some years before the full effects of drafting are felt, although in the case of North Melbourne Jason Horne-Francis could have an immediate and significant impact.

I expect that this year will be somewhat of a holding pattern, with not a lot of change in the top eight from the end of the home-and-away season. The only change predicted is for Sydney to fall outside the eight, their place taken by Richmond, and for some swapping of positions in the top eight, notably that Port Adelaide and Geelong fall out of the top four and are replaced by Richmond and the Western Bulldogs.

Very rarely are there wholesale changes to ladder positions – it generally takes time for clubs to develop their lists and for others to fall off the perch.