The Wallabies may well taste success on Saturday and that would be something of win for the game of rugby in Australia, but their World Cup prospects don’t look as good.
To beat the current world champions is always a feather in the cap, but with one year to go till to the next World Cup, the landscape has changed immensely.
Back in the younger days of professional rugby, the All Blacks, Wallabies, England and South Africa were the dominant forces, with the unpredictable French making it to World Cup finals (three times) without the silverware.
The “home unions” were there as the antagonist, if you will, that could disrupt the status quo.
Think Scotland 1991, Ireland 1999, Argentina 2007 and even better 2015, while Western Samoa knocks off Wales and gave the world a shock.
Since those days, the also-rans have become the contenders and the cannon fodder have become the disruptive.
Ireland and France are, clearly, the teams to beat. They have established strength in their juniors and structures and have established awesome depth.
In addition, their coaches have a willingness to back their game plans.
The All Blacks are not in disarray, but they have had the rest of the world finally nullify their tactics. Of course they are a massive threat.
(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
The English, well, Eddie Jones is a control freak, but knows what he’s doing. In hindsight, did he have a plan after he was dumped from the Wallabies in 2008? Who knows?
Argentina, under Chieka, have knocked off the All Blacks and the Springboks in the past couple of years – granted, while he was an assistant for the Boks, but he is a master of bringing teams from the ashes, globally.
Scotland is beating anyone on their day, as are Fiji.
The Welsh are like the northern hemispheres’s Wallabies: when they’re on, they’re on and will beat any team.
Remember that Pacific Island nations have access to extreme talent from bygone years. These players can it on in heartbeat and if you’re off your game by 10 per cent, you’ll lose.
You still have Japan, as well. Can they win it? Probably not, but they can certainly cause some upsets.
To win a World Cup, you need at least five world-class players.
The Wallabies have one in Marika Korobeti and even then, the competition is outstanding. I am one-eyed, but he would still struggle to make a world XV with the outside backs on offer.
So, who can take us to the next level?
– [ ] Tupou – the mojo is gone
– [ ] Swain – great mongrel but no discipline
– [ ] Hooper – is great at seven but doesn’t cover the modern pilfering role and McReight isn’t there yet
– [ ] Kerevi is injured and might make a world team
– [ ] Cooper, if available, would be welcomed, but world XV probably not
The list could go on. This Wallabies team is solid, there is no doubt. I also love the heart that is coming back into the jersey.
The young guys coming through might be a World Cup cycle behind, but I have to give kudos to Noah Lolesio.
I haven’t been a huge fan of how he’s controlled the game, but he did that last week.
Let’s remember, he’s 22. That certainly grabbed my interest last week. He had some authority of being the director rather than an extra.
Is he world class? No, not yet, but watch this space.
Jed Holloway is another who appears to set his goals to make the Wallabies rather than dominate the rugby world.
He was outstanding for the Waratahs this year with nothing to lose.
You are a dominant force, don’t be happy to be where you are. Think Owen Finegan. He played his role and muscled up.
The other is Fraser McReight. This guy has something. His pilfering exceeds that of Hooper and he is a natural leader. He plays hard on the ball and wants to win.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
My concern is he is in the same vein as Hollaway: he has the heart and has already achieved his goal.
The best sevens in the world have an ability to do everything. Think Josh Kronfeld, George Smith, David Wilson, Michael Jones.
World rugby changed because of these guys and did it because they dominated a position.
Every leading team has one.
So, back to the headline. There’s no X-factor or dominant 10, but Lolesio could nail it. Cooper as back-up would nail it.
Jed Holloway went overseas and has dominated Super Rugby – don’t be content, maybe not World XV, but do something week in and week out.
Mr McReight, please do the No.7 jersey proud. There are world class sevens everywhere, so the small moments count. Consistency is the key.
That all said, the Wallabies can win this game. I wouldn’t put money on it, though.
This team is solid, but not great. It’s time for the youth to become legends, not development players.
Malotru
Roar Rookie
No and no. Hinsight is wonderful though.
moaman
Roar Guru
I think the 'Boks are quite capable of diffusing their own 'boks' kicks, thank you very much! They don't need any extra assistance. :laughing:
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
@Riggers After last night's debacle against SA I say the WB chances of making it past the quarter finals RWC have gone from 50:1 to 100:1. They've a total inability to string 2 good performances together and there's no signs of improvement in consistency :thumbup:
Riggers
Roar Rookie
I stand corrected. Wallabies will struggle to get out of their pool next year. Both Wales and Fiji can beat us with a performance like that
Riggers
Roar Rookie
You go keyboard warrior
Joshua Makepeace
Roar Rookie
A lot of sense was spoken there Riggers, thank you. :thumbup:
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
I think you nailed it . Rassie is Director of Rugby and in this country and that is a full time job and a half . Structures, development , improving women’s rugby , 7s , politics , all high on his agenda . He is still the coach by the way but it’s by remote control and it’s not working . It’s multi tasking at its extremes rugby wise .
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Can The Wallabies win the WC ? It’s a serious question and of course the answer is absolutely Ja ! Only 5 teams in history have shown that ability . Aus is one of them . However it’s really so wide open . After a lifetime of watching this sport I’ve never witnessed so many teams at the top of the pile as now . Even this years Rugby Championship the most unpredictable ever . Previous years all eyes would be on the Boks vs Aus with an AB vs Arg match up a procession for NZ . No longer . It may just have given a new lease of life to The tournament with SA pausing to consider its rumored migration North . It’s a dream draw which given the relative lack of depth in Aus rugby a genuine blessing , however I suspect Argentina just made that draw look a tiny bit tougher . France are patently aiming to develop 2 teams capable of doing the job as are the Boks as both know they will need them given their prospective pathways to the final . Boks have issues but damn know how to close out the big one . Ireland have the capacity to unseat any team but their reliance on Leinster maybe a weakness as depth matters . Then there is England and it’s canny fox Jones . NZ will go into it in the very unfamiliar position as underdogs . That makes them Uber dangerous to everyone. It’s goinna be sensational. WR in a very , very good space right now .
Reframe
Roar Rookie
Interesting... "the AB's are not in disarray." Lack of game plan, poor player selection, players playing out of position, poor captaincy, lack of innovative coaching, legacy selections, an administration that believes in supporting and encouraging broken management practices, complete disrespect for its supporting public ....what in the world qualifies as disarray if not this.
FrancisF
Roar Pro
If the Wallabies can beat the Springboks tonight, the bookies will be on the side of the Wallabies about the chances of winning the World Cup. Fix the indiscipline, and the path to the World Cup becomes clearer. Every Wallaby in the team is as good as any player in the other teams. All they need is to get heads together and not play like some tipsy and half drunks coming out of the pub at around midnight on a Saturday.
Thing Me
Roar Rookie
For me the half-back role is and will always be the key. Can't understand how Rennie has dropped McDermott from the line-up. I'm afraid White although a robust type and an expert lippy, is still tradesman like. What's the bet he'll cause another costly penalty give-away. The day I see a Wallaby Team running from their own goal-line with the confidence of the 8th Army is the day we can truly say this is a top tier team. There are some inklings from last week. Just as there were when the Wallabies beat the All Blacks in Perth, only to turn to jelly a week or two later.
bottom feeder
Guest
The Boks are missing Rassie Erasmus big time . When he returns to his position as "coach " we shall see an improved Bok performance. Not to mention the return of Kolbe and others. Nienaber is a defensive coach whose philosophy seems to have been to keep the 2019 squad intact. His overall performance is poor. Some players are too old and will be a year older in 2023. Frans Steyn for one - old and overweight . Can hardly bend over to pick up a rolling ball. Several of these players have come from post surgery rehab straight into test rugby without as much as one game under their belt. Duane V comes to mind. What Jesse Kriel is in this squad for beats me . Creates nothing and seldom passes . Prefers to die with the ball. Willemse has not played at 10 for a long while so his selection at 10 is questionable . Roos should have been on this tour .
Tooly
Roar Rookie
Another VG article in cool light of day . . I wouldn’t take a lot solace out of beating this SA side down here . It’s not anywhere near their WC side. . In our future we have apart from Koreibeti , Valentini , Samu , Kerevi , Quadie who are world class . White , Bell , Arnold , Faingaa , Rhodda , Phillip , Paisami , Ikatau and Kelloway are close . Then we have McReight , McDermott , Holloway , Wilson , Porcetti ? , Swain , Cambell , Frost , Tupou and the Wright brothers ready to go . Edmed , Donaldson , Harrison , Gamble , Brown , Fines and a lot more hopefuls . I am talking about young players who will take us forward with some help from veterans when needed .
Noodles
Roar Rookie
WBs main concerns are at 10 and 15. Lolesio has the chance to grab 10 and develop his role. Hodge might also pull that off. The pack is shaping quite well and delivers fast ball consistently. The bench needs to lift but there are also some good players like Kerevi and Rodda and Hooper to add yet. Maybe even cooper. I expect them to develop over coming games and to win more consistently. RWC is for the French to lose imo.
PeterK
Roar Guru
AB's should be odds on to beat the wallabies twice. Foster has a good record against 1 tier 1 team, and that team is Australia. (note Wales with 1 game doesn't count) DR's game plans suit Fosters and DR has not shown an ability to have a plan B if it isn't working.
Bobby
Roar Rookie
Can the Wallabies win tonight ? Sure they can. Good start, defence pressure the Boks, diffuse their box kicks and run the "slugs" into the ground. Sounds easy. :happy: Wallabies by 12.
Objective Observer
Roar Rookie
1 - possibly; 2 - no.
FrancisF
Roar Pro
For Wallabies to win the World Cup, the highest hurdle it must cross is its consistent and persistent indisciple. Somehow in that department, my gut feeling. nothing will change. The bad habits will continue. All the Springboks got to do tonight is to play an average game, and then put a little bit of pressure at the loose scrums and plenty of high balls, and the Wallabies will produce the result; A WIN… for the Boks.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Nice article Riggers, thanks. I believe that the Wallabies can win tonight against the Springboks, based on the changes to the Bok team with many changes mostly enforced by injury. However the Wallabies will need to back up from last week. Without Pollard and Jantjies, the Boks don’t have a recognised flyhalf but Willemse is no mug. It will be interesting to watch the matchup between Damian Willemse and Noah Lolesio. Am out through injury must also impact on the Boks strike power .. I think the best 13 in world rugby at the moment. If the Wallabies play up to there potential they can win the RC. As an avid All Black supporter, I believe that the Wallabies can knock over the AB’s in Melbourne but would be far less confident of them repeating the dose at Eden Park on the 24th of this month. As to the RWC, the Wallabies have a favourable draw and have a great chance to get to the semi but to progress further I think they will need to overcome either England or the Boks to reach the big dance. I agree with the favourites being the Irish and the French but in a one off match, anything could happen. Anyhow my early assessment, yes the Wallabies can win the RWC next year but without a major upset, I think they may have a better chance at home in 2027.
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
@Riggers So you've written an article almost all would agree with. WBs are a very low chance of making the 2023 RWC final. Then you've followed the current world rankings in discussing the chances of others, but have forgotten Sth Africa. Is that all you've got to say Riggers :laughing: