AFL Oracle revisited: Grading my pre-season predictions for 2022

The AFL season is done and dusted, which leaves one thing left to do before turning our eyes to the silly season and what next year brings: looking back on my predictions for how 2022 would pan out, and seeing how much of it I got right.

In March of this year I put together four season previews looking at all 18 teams, and trying to guess how their seasons woould go.

You can check them out in full in the links below; but fair to say I got a few things bang-on (Collingwood, eh?), a few things wrong (what on earth, Port Adelaide?) and some things that are just hilarious with the benefit of hindsight (Carlton in ninth, lol).

So how does the final ladder shake out compared to how I thought it would look? Let’s find out.

(A note before we begin: the below ladder is how the standings finished following the finals series, and not at the conclusion of the home-and-away rounds.)

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1. Geelong

Pre-season tip: 6th

What I said:

“It’s hard to see them falling out of the finals in 2022, even considering their disastrous end to last year. Winning a flag, though, may still be beyond them: and when it does, watch the Scott naysayers come out in droves.”

At least I avoided being one of those people who thought the Cats would finally topple off the cliff!

Granted, though, I certainly didn’t envisage Geelong being as all-conquering as they were in 2022. With a more attacking style, a fully fit Jeremy Cameron and the rise of Sam De Koning in defence, the Cats went from 5-4 after nine rounds to a flag without losing another game.

I’ll give myself a pass on this for at least having the Cats in my final eight; but there was enough talent on that list – Cameron’s return in particular was a big sign – that having them fall out of the four was a mistake.

Grade: C

2. Sydney

Pre-season tip: 5th

What I said:

“Making finals, and winning at least one, should be the goal: and for a list as talented and well-balanced as this one, that’s well within reach.”

Fun fact: I actually had the Swans in 3rd for much of the season. You’ll find out later why I wussed out on that one.

Regardless, there’s no room for ifs or buts when you’ve got your predicted ladder up on the Internet for all to see. But I was happy to stick by the Swans as a team on the improve in 2022… they just improved more than I expected, particularly late in the season.

It will be fascinating to see if the grand final humiliation they suffered leaves scars on a talented young group, as it has on many teams before; or whether these Swans are strong enough to put it behind them.

Grade: B

3. Collingwood

Pre-season tip: 8th

What I said:

“With a decent injury run, and if someone can step up to be a goalkicking saviour and give Mihocek some help in attack – looking at you, Mason Cox – then the Pies could easily surprise many and make a run back to the brink of finals this season.”

“If the Pies finish 8th I’ll walk home nude.”

There’s one particular commenter on my Collingwood prediction who is veeeery grateful right now in how he worded his response!

I was happy to stick by the Pies as an improver this year; their core talent was still intact, and it looked like Jordan De Goey was ready to explode as a star of the game. But I didn’t foresee the huge impact a host of exciting young stars led by Nick Daicos and a frenetic new game plan under Craig McRae would have.

Yes, I ended up underestimating the Pies: but if I do say so myself, it took guts to put the 17th-placed side from 2021 into my eight, so I’m giving that a decent grade.

And a note for any would-be ladder predictors moving forward: there is ALWAYS a bottom-five team that takes everyone by surprise and makes the eight. Who will it be next year?

Grade: A

Zac Williams and Adam Saad of the Blues look dejected as Jordan De Goey and Nick Daicos of the Magpies celebrate. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

4. Brisbane

Pre-season tip: 1st

What I said:

“Only the boldest pundit would envisage them so much as falling outside the top four, let alone missing the finals altogether. The side that Chris Fagan has assembled might only be behind Melbourne as the most complete in the AFL.”

The Lions stagnated in 2022 rather than take the next step into major premiership contention I thought they might. They got it together in time to reach the preliminary final, but the manner of their humbling loss to Geelong showed that they still remain some way off the pace of the big dogs.

Cracks also began to emerge in a line-up stacked with talent: Joe Daniher battled injuries and form, Harris Andrews was some way off his best, and the midfield was too reliant on Lachie Neale to cope against the best opposition. The looming arrival of Josh Dunkley will help the last of those, at least.

Grade: B

5. Melbourne

Pre-season tip: 2nd

What I said:

“Quite genuinely, only two things can stop the Demons from going back to back in 2022: complacency, and injuries.”

Half right – the Dees never seemed quite as hungry as they were in 2021, and niggles affecting Christian Petracca and Max Gawn definitely took a bite out of their finals campaign.

But I still thought Melbourne had more resilience than they showed this year, and expected, like many, for them to be one of the major players all season long. Yes, they finished second, but after winning their first 10 games, slid back quite markedly, and in the end falling from the finals in straight sets was about right.

It just goes to show: back-to-back flags is the toughest ask in footy.

Grade: C+

6. Fremantle

Pre-season tip: 13th

What I said:

“With so many other sides around them clamouring to rise up the ladder, I can’t help feeling that it’s not quite Freo’s time just yet.”

Probably the first prediction so far that I’ve got spectacularly wrong.

I’ll admit, I didn’t see this coming for Freo. I anticipated their forward line would battle to kick a winning score – which it did at times, to be fair – but didn’t see their backline becoming an impenetrable fortress, nor the midfield improving out of sight.

Will Brodie was a perfect foil for Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong keeps getting better, and that trio regularly gave the Freo forwards enough of a look to get the job done. And the defence, marshalled brilliantly around pillars Alex Pearce and Brennan Cox, is arguably the AFL’s most miserly.

I thought 2023 would be the year the Dockers made serious inroads into a first finals appearance under Justin Longmuir; and I suppose it’s fitting that after underestimating them so heavily, it was they who knocked by Bulldogs out of the finals.

Grade: F

7. Richmond

Pre-season tip: 7th

What I said:

“Most pundits expect the Tigers to return to finals in 2022, and I’m firmly in that boat. But with an ageing list, concerns over some injury-prone key pillars and the inescapable fact that Melbourne have dethroned them as the competition’s premier side, let’s not go too far and expect a return to premiership glory just yet.”

The first prediction that I got bang on the money! Huzzah!

If anything, I probably underestimated the Tigers slightly: in a season laden with excellent teams, many had them as a premiership threat even from seventh on the ladder. But everything from foreseeing their rise back into the eight, to the injuries to Tom Lynch, Dylan Grimes and co., I got bang on.

Nice job, me. That’s why they pay you the big bucks.*

Grade: A+

*please note that the bucks are not, in fact, big

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

8. Western Bulldogs

Pre-season tip: 4th

What I said:

“Ultimately, the Dogs will need to get better if they want to pass Melbourne and lift the cup for the second time in six years, and it’s difficult to see them doing that.”

I was worried about the Bulldogs going into the season; but, tolerant and understanding fan that I am (yeah, right) I backed their talent to put them back in premiership contention again.

As it panned out, the defensive structure fell to pieces, Marcus Bontempelli battled injuries, and the Dogs were lucky to scrape into the finals in the funniest way possible.

It at least meant I got seven of my top eight right in pre-season – go me – but they were a long way off where I expected them to be. And with rumours of cultural divide and set to lose Josh Dunkley, it might be a while before the Bulldogs are ready to contend again.

Grade: D+

9. Carlton

Pre-season tip: 9th

What I said:

“It will be hard to keep a lid on, especially if the Blues can do what they haven’t for a decade and best Richmond in their traditional Round 1 showdown. But instant gratification has set the Blues back repeatedly in years gone by – it might do everyone good to have to wait for success to return to Ikon Park.”

Hahahahahahaha.

This honestly couldn’t have worked out any better than it did – but I certainly didn’t anticipate how the Blues would finish ninth.

I expected Carlton to hang around the outskirts of the eight all season long, not occupy it for 22 of 23 rounds. I didn’t see their midfield becoming one of the league’s most brutal after one off-season under Michael Voss, the defence to tighten up significantly, and Charlie Curnow to win a Coleman Medal after a handful of games across two and a half seasons heading in.

I hit the nail on the head with the destination, but my working wasn’t perfect: so no second A+ for Tim.

Grade: A

10. St Kilda

Pre-season tip: 14th

What I said:

“The Saints could easily spring a surprise and return to their outstanding 2020 form this year… but there are other teams around them in exactly the same boat.”

This looked set to be a Fremantle-esque howler halfway through the season, so my thanks go to the Saints for falling off the wagon after the byes.

St Kilda in 14th was the prediction I was least happy with going into the season, and was born more out of my belief that the Saints would improve from 2021, but not by enough to stop them being surpassed by sides like Richmond and Carlton.

I was right in that regard, but didn’t see the Saints getting better to the point of beating Fremantle in Perth, and Geelong, and Richmond in the first half of the season. They’re an enigma, and while I didn’t have them in finals, I probably ended up on the wrong side of this one.

Grade: C

11. Port Adelaide

Pre-season tip: 3rd

What I said:

I’ll be honest right off the bat: I came very close to picking Port Adelaide as my top-four team to miss the finals for 2022. Then I took a deep breath and calmed down.”

You absolute pelican.

I talked a big game in pre-season that there’s always one preliminary finalist that misses the eight the year after, and for a long time that was the Power for me. And I chickened out.

Making matters worse, that tip bumped the team I had originally in third, Sydney, back down to fifth. Ifs and buts, I know, but it’s been annoying me all season long.

I can’t really explain what went wrong with the Power this season, other than that they blew it to bits starting 0-5 without Charlie Dixon, and then were no better than reasonable from there.

For all the talk of improvement, 10-12 (10-7 after Round 5) is the scoresheet of a team stuck in mid-table mediocrity. I just wished I’d stuck to my guns and put them in that category before Captain Hindsight lent a hand.

Grade: F

12. Gold Coast

Pre-season tip: 18th

What I said:

“With Alastair Clarkson hovering in the background, and the constant prospect of AFL intervention should the Suns’ struggles continue, it’s hard to see how Dew can keep his, or his team’s, heads above water without Ben King.”

The three most controversial of my pre-season tips, according to the comments, were Collingwood and Hawthorn improving and Gold Coast winning the wooden spoon.

The other two turned out pretty well, but this was a disaster. I took one look at Max King’s knee injury and thought the Suns were cooked, and with them, Stuart Dew’s coaching career.

But the Suns found a way. Levi Casboult and Mabior Chol helped cover for King’s loss, and the midfield improved substantially to offer that pair enough supply. Matt Rowell was an inside bull, Noah Anderson keeps on improving, and Touk Miller might just be the most complete midfielder in the game.

Dew has, against all odds, built a really strong and stable core, despite their player management remaining inept (Jack Bowes looks like the Suns’ latest salary dump they’ve force upon themselves), and finals should be the aim in 2023. Who knows, I might even back them to achieve it this time around.

Grade: F

13. Hawthorn

Pre-season tip: 12th

What I said:

“Expectations are pretty dire for Hawthorn in 2022. However, things might not be as grim as many seem to think.”

I slightly overestimated Hawthorn – there was a big game between the top 12 and the bottom six this year and the Hawks were pretty much just the best of the weakies – but I’m still glad I disagreed with the presumptive line of thinking that they were the wooden spoon favourites.

Things never got better than their upset Round 2 walloping of Port Adelaide, but the Hawks impressed in Sam Mitchell’s first year in charge, and I’d argue few, if any, coaches in the game got more out of his playing group (that list is still yikes).

Points off, though, for suggesting Chad Wingard would have a big year. Didn’t expect him to be stuck in a forward pocket from the get-go (though probably could have predicted he’d end it injured).

Grade: A

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

14. Adelaide

Pre-season tip: 17th

What I said:

“Progress isn’t always linear, and Adelaide might have to stagnate, or even go backwards, before they can begin the climb back up the ladder.”

The Crows didn’t go backwards as I thought they might, but after three years, improvement remains slow.

Particularly early in the season, they seemed on track to contend for finals, winning back-to-back games over eventual top-eight teams Richmond and the Bulldogs; but an eight-win season, just one more than in 2021, probably wasn’t enough.

Next year is a huge one for Matthew Nicks, though: I’m not sure he can survive a fourth year in the bottom six

Grade: B

15. Essendon

Pre-season tip: 11th

What I said:

“With a more difficult draw courtesy of their higher-placed finish than 2020, it might be a year for the Dons to take a step back to take two steps forward.”

I didn’t have Essendon making the eight – few did – but I’m surely not alone in thinking they’d be a lot better than they were in 2022.

Starting with an ugly loss to eventual premiers Geelong and ending in disarray both on and off-field, Ben Rutten made an ill-fated attempt to change the game plan to start the year, and that failure ended up costing him his job.

It’s still so hard to get a gauge on the Bombers, because they have plentiful talent yet a major dearth in the fundamentals like chasing, tackling and pressure that get taken for granted in modern footy. The right coach might be able to balance that out enough to spark a serious rise – but who knows whether one such master even exists.

Grade: C+

16. GWS

Pre-season tip: 10th

What I said:

“Even making finals would be a commendable effort for Leon Cameron, and the Giants still have more than enough talent to pull it off. But you’d be a brave man to back them to do it.”

The bottom fell out of GWS in 2022, and while I didn’t see it coming to the extent it did, it wasn’t exactly surprising.

1-5 after the six games of Toby Greene’s suspension killed their season, as I suspected it would, and Leon Cameron couldn’t survive it either.

With yet more players set to depart the club, the Giants seem to be approaching tipping point. After missing out on a flag in six years of contention, it’s going to be a long, hard road back.

Grade: C

17. West Coast

Pre-season tip: 15th

What I said:

“With holes opening up all over the ground, this might be a year for Adam Simpson to give in to the rebuild and begin the difficult process of replacing some of his club’s finest ever contributors.”

The Eagles were a popular choice to fall badly in 2022, having hit the cliff the year prior; but even after an interrupted pre-season and the threat of COVID hitting WA, it was hard to predict the Springfield Tyre Fire of a year they had.

Twice forced to field top-up players from outside the list and with off-field issues compounding the myriad of on-field ones, the Eagles produced the incredible feat of losing all 22 games under ‘expected scores’. Thank goodness they kicked straight against Collingwood and Essendon.

They’ll be a popular wooden spoon tip in 2023; but one thing you have to say about the Eagles is they’re never down for long. They claimed the spoon in 2010, and 12 months later were in a preliminary final. Can they do it again?

Grade: B+

18. North Melbourne

Pre-season tip: 16th

What I said:

“With a still-developing midfield core, a backline now spearheaded by Ben McKay with Robbie Tarrant gone to the Tigers, and Nick Larkey and Callum Coleman-Jones still needing time to mature up front, North fans can expect improvement, but nothing seismic just yet.”

Expect improvement? Yeah, nah. North proved a solid end to 2021 was a false dawn with a hellish year for the ages. Of their two wins, one came against a glorified WAFL side against West Coast in Round 2 – and even that was a close-run thing.

Who knows how the Alastair Clarkson situation will play out with the Roos moving forward, but it’s fair to say that’s a headache this club could have done without. But keeping our eyes on 2022: while I still had them in the bottom four, it’s fair to say I didn’t expect the Kangas to be quite that bad.

Grade: C