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Opinion
It has been nearly a decade since four preliminary finalists all were able to maintain their success 12 months later.
Since 2014, when Hawthorn, Fremantle, Geelong and Sydney all backed up appearances in the last four a year earlier, one team has always put their hand up to make that season’s biggest fall from grace.
Some do it off the back of a premiership – the Western Bulldogs in 2017, or Richmond just last year. For others, like Melbourne in 2019, one all too brief flicker of glory is quickly snuffed out by the crushing reality that is AFL life. Everyone else lies somewhere in between those extremes, and for reasons ranging from a team reaching the cliff (Fremantle in 2016) to pre-season camps (team redacted for fear of lawsuit).
Last week, I looked at first the bottom five from 2021; then those from 9-13; and finally, the first half of last year’s finalists from 5-8. Now, two days out from the first bounce of the season, it’s time to run an eye over the best of the best, and see whether I’m brave enough to pick one to slide all the way out of the finals.
Geelong
4th, 16-6, 126.7%, lost preliminary final
Ins: Jonathon Ceglar (HAW), Tyson Stengle (delisted free agent), Toby Conway, Mitch Knevitt, James Willis, Flynn Kroeger, Cooper Whyte, Oliver Dempsey (draft)
Outs: Jordan Clark (FRE), Charlie Constable (GCS), Darcy Fort (BL), Nathan Kreuger (COL), Oscar Brownless, Ben Jarvis, Stefan Okunbor, Cameron Taheny (del.), Lachie Henderson, Josh Jenkins (ret.)
If anyone from last year’s top four were to fall out of the eight entirely in 2022, it would have to be Geelong, right?
Say what you will about Chris Scott – and some of you have said plenty – the Cats’ stance of permanently trying to contend for a premiership, rather than opting to bottom out and run the gauntlet with the draft, is to be commended. They’ve set themselves up as a destination club, back themselves to wring the last drops of talent out of the senior players they trade in, and never fail to win a ton of games.
However, things have always gone pear-shaped in finals under Scott, barring of course his debut season premiership in 2011. Since then, the Cats have won only seven of 22 games in September (or in 2020’s case, October), including defeats in five preliminary finals out of six.
Last year’s was by far the most humiliating, the Cats annihilated by 83 points by a supercharged Melbourne side. Age finally seemed to catch up with them at the business end of the year – several senior heads looked banged up and fatigued, while the loss of defensive lynchpin Tom Stewart to a season-ending foot injury was a hammer blow.
As such, the Cats are the punter’s choice to miss the eight for the second time since 2006 this season, thus finally bringing to an end their stellar reign of deep finals runs. But here’s the thing: I still can’t bring myself to write them off entirely.
Every time you think Geelong have reached the end of their tether, up they pop again like the killer in a horror movie, for one last scare. While their finish to last season was definitely ugly, a 16-6 home and away record, boosted by the sizeable home ground advantage they have at their Kardinia Park fortress, is sizeable ground to give up. They’d have to lose four extra games to so much as be in danger of missing finals. Let’s not forget that they were one Max Gawn shank away from the minor premiership, either.
Cue the ‘old folk’s home’ jokes, but while Jonathon Ceglar is another recruit on the wrong side of 30, the big Hawk is probably the closest thing the Cats have had to an out-and-out specialist ruckman since Brad Ottens. If he can stay injury-free – and that’s a big if considering he’s already had an interrupted pre-season – then Scott’s love-hate relationship with the versatile but sporadic Rhys Stanley could finally be at an end.
The Cats’ backline remains outstanding: only Melbourne conceded fewer points in the home-and-away rounds. Boosted by the return of Stewart, it’s not as if you can expect them to start leaking goals like a sieve this year.
Up forward, much still depends on ageless spearhead Tom Hawkins, but improvement from boom recruit Jeremy Cameron in his second year at the club is almost inevitable. Beset by injuries and restricted to only 15 games, he still booted 39 goals, bagging six against reigning premiers Richmond – a full season in the Cats’ set-up, taking the second tall most weeks, would be just the tonic to return to his Coleman Medal-winning ways.
Don’t expect Scott to suddenly start playing the kids and opting to finally invest in youth – short of exciting intercept defender Sam De Koning and former Richmond and Adelaide goalsneak Tyson Stengle in his AFL rebirth, it’s hard to see too many other debuts handed out. While that could have consequences down the line, stunting the development of their next generation, they’ve gone too far down this track to bail out now, not when there’s still plenty of talent to be wrung out of their ageing superstars.
Whether it’s only one more year of challenging, or whether the Cats have even more life in them than I’d thought, it’s hard to see them falling out of the finals in 2022, even considering their disastrous end to last year. Winning a flag, though, may still be beyond them: and when it does, watch the Scott naysayers come out in droves.
Prediction: 6th
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Port Adelaide
3rd, 17-5, 126.3%, lost preliminary final
Ins: Trent Dumont (NM), Jeremy Finlayson (GWS), Sam Skinner (DFA), Josh Sinn, Hugh Jackson, Dante Visentini, Jase Burgoyne (draft)
Outs: Peter Ladhams (SYD), Jarrod Lienert (STK), Trent Burgoyne, Joel Garner, Hamish Hartlett, Boyd Woodcock (del.), Tyson Goldsack, Tom Rockliff (ret.)
I’ll be honest right off the bat: I came very close to picking Port Adelaide as my top-four team to miss the finals for 2022.
Then I took a deep breath and calmed down. Sure, the Power’s preliminary final thrashing at home to the Western Bulldogs was catastrophic, and means Ken Hinkley will head into the new season with sizeable pressure on his head to deliver a first premiership at the helm. But at its core, this is still an excellently balanced list, with a crop of young stars who should only be getting better.
Oddly enough, Port might feel the loss of senior assistant Michael Voss to the Carlton head coaching job than second ruckman Peter Ladhams, now in Sydney. Voss won rave reviews for his work at Alberton, and is credit for much of the Power’s defensive organisation and contested ball strength – both aspects the Blues desperately need to improve. Good assistants are very hard to replace, but the foundations are all still in place.
Of Port’s six losses last year, five of them came to their fellow top sides – yes, it’s a concern, but not a finals-missing one. Against the best in the competition, they came up short even at the Adelaide Oval against Melbourne, Geelong and the Bulldogs (twice). For a club with the motto ‘We Exist to Win Premierships’, deep finals runs and honourable losses to quality opposition just aren’t going to cut it.
Bizarrely, the Power’s greatest strength might also be their greatest weakness – in defence. Last year, only Melbourne and Geelong conceded fewer points in the home-and-away season, with recruit Aliir Aliir putting in an All Australian maiden season at the club and the likes of captain Tom Jonas, Trent McKenzie and Darcy Byrne-Jones forming the crux of an unheralded by effective backline. But if the midfield is beaten, as it was in the prelim and against Melbourne and Geelong during the year – that group can be exposed one on one.
The midfield, though, is tough to conquer. For starters, there’s reigning Brownlow Medallist Ollie Wines, a long-time star who became a superstar in 2021. Not far behind is the ageless Travis Boak, still cutting teams to ribbons with his poise and composure well into his 30s. With young guns Zak Butters and Connor Rozee rumoured to get even more midfield time this year, the Power have game-breaking speed at their disposal too.
The challenges for Port are twofold: one, find a way to hold the best opposition at bay when things aren’t going to plan; and two, find avenues to goal around Charlie Dixon. The man mountain managed 48 goals in 2021, despite being a constant source of frustration to fans, but only Mitch Georgiades, who missed the finals, also passed 30. Now in his sixth season, it might be now or never for key forward Todd Marshall, especially with former Giant Jeremy Finlayson now on the scene and clamouring for his spot in the team.
The Power are clearly good enough to make the top four again – heck, they’re probably good enough to win the premiership if enough things fall into place. But just like Brisbane, there are legitimate questions about their finals record. It’s hard to sack a coach off the back of a top-four finish, but if anyone can succumb to that fate, it might be Hinkley.
Prediction: 3rd
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Western Bulldogs
2nd, 15-7, 132.8%, lost grand final
Ins: Tim O’Brien (HAW), Sam Darcy, Arthur Jones, Luke Cleary, Charlie Parker, Robbie McComb, Cody Raak (draft)
Outs: Patrick Lipinski (COL), Lewis Young (CAR), Ben Cavarra, Will Hayes (del.), Lin Jong, Easton Wood (ret.)
The Western Bulldogs have been many things under Luke Beveridge, but one thing they seldom do is make things easy for themselves.
The Dogs have made a virtue of triumphing against the odds – their 2016 premiership the most obvious example – but their uncanny ability to turn those odds against themselves was never more apparent than last year. Having sat in the top two for nearly the entire season, Bevo’s boys proceeded to lose their last three home-and-away rounds to wind up in fifth.
Cameron Rose wrote a great piece about the Bulldogs last week, and while I’m inclined to disagree with a few things, it’s undeniable that the gap between the Dogs’ best and worst is bigger than just about any side in the premiership conversation. Their best is good enough to lead the eventual premiers by three goals after two and a half quarters of the grand final. Their worst? Well, just watch the rest of that match and you’ll get the idea.
The Dogs’ success is built around my pick for the best midfield in the AFL – Melbourne have them covered for quality, but not quantity. Just look at the names: Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore, Adam Treloar, Josh Dunkley, Bailey Smith. The biggest challenge is working out which three you want starting at the centre bounce, and who you shunt to the half-forward line and instruct to just follow the ball anyway after it’s thrown up.
Like Port Adelaide, the Dogs’ backline is vulnerable one-on-one, as the Dees showed to devastating effect in the grand final. But also like the Power, Beveridge has done wonderfully to marshal a relatively ragtag band into a cohesive unit, with mighty support up the ground from a midfield that helps to clog up space. No team with Ryan Gardner as the second tall should be top four for points against, but the Doggies are.
Challenge number one this year is finding avenues to goal, having lost key pillar Josh Bruce to his ACL injury until at least the midway point. Josh Schache was the finals stop-gap, but with him largely in defence in the pre-season, it all rests on the shoulders of Aaron Naughton. Unbelievable on his day, but not quite strong enough to match it with the best defenders in the game when denied a run at the ball – watch how Steven May nullified him in the grand final – the 22-year old will surely need aerial support from rucks Tim English and Stefan Martin, as well as Bontempelli himself.
The wildcard is Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. Heading into his second year, the former number one draft pick wasn’t even in the 26 for the Dogs’ pre-season match against Brisbane – Beveridge isn’t just going to hand him games. The world shouldn’t be expected of the youngster yet, but the Dogs are crying out for a second tall alongside Naughton, and Ugle-Hagan fits the bill perfectly… if he can lift his form.
Ultimately, the Dogs will need to get better if they want to pass Melbourne and lift the cup for the second time in six years, and it’s difficult to see them doing that. Their best is too good, and their midfield too potent, to realistically expect them to fall away: but it might take another finals miracle for Beveridge to get another crack at the biggest day of all.
Prediction: 4th
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Melbourne
1st, 17-1-4, 130.8%, premiers
Ins: Luke Dunstan (STK), Jacob van Rooyen, Blake Howes, Taj Woewodin, Judd McVee, Andy Moniz-Wakefield (draft)
Outs: Austin Bradtke, Kye Declase, Marty Hore, Jay Lockhart, Aaron Nietschke (del.), Neville Jetta, Nathan Jones, Aaron vandenBerg (ret.)
Yeah they go okay I suppose.
Melbourne’s finals series in 2021, culminating in one of the great grand final performances I’ve seen from a team, was nothing short of phenomenal.
The benchmark team for the majority of the season, the Dees cruised through September with a big win over Brisbane in the qualifying final, a crushing won over Geelong in the prelim, and then, grandest of all, a 100-7 demolition job over the Western Bulldogs after they trailed by three goals halfway through the third quarter.
The Dees lack for nothing. They have the best ruckman in the game, Max Gawn, who as a captain and leader is all but peerless in the competition. Nipping at his heels are Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and your pick of Jack Viney, James Harmes and a plethora of youngsters in the rotation. Check there.
Then there’s the backline, the most miserly of 2021. Built around certified monster-stopper Steven May and intercept king Jake Lever, both of whom were well-deserved maiden All Australians last year, Adelaide’s 15 goals in an upset Round 10 win was the only time the Dees conceded more than 13 majors all year. When the ball hits the ground, there comes Christian Salem, one of the game’s best kicks, to sweep it upfield again.
The forward line was seen as a weakness, but come the finals, it was firing on all cylinders. Having scored beyond 100 just three times up until Round 20, and not since Round 7, the Demons would reach three figures in four of their final seven matches, capping off their improvement with 21 glorious goals in the grand final. Ben Brown’s arrival in the best 22 mid-year had a huge impact, with opposition backlines now opening up for Bayley Fritsch (59 goals), Kysaiah Pickett (40) and Tom McDonald (33) to flourish.
Quite genuinely, only two things can stop the Demons from going back to back in 2022: complacency, and injuries. If the Dees get caught up in their success a la the Western Bulldogs in 2016 – and ending a half-century long premiership drought can do that – other, hungrier teams could well pass them by. It will be up to Simon Goodwin and Mark Williams, as well as the rest of the coaching group, to ensure the fire in the belly doesn’t burn out.
The Dees have less control over injuries, having enjoyed an excellent run in 2021 – they had 10 players play every match, including big names in Petracca, Gawn, Oliver and Lever; while four more, including Salem, Fritsch and Rising Star winner turned grand final hero Luke Jackson, missing just once. Their premiership 23 (including medi-sub James Jordon) missed 73 games total for the year, with a quarter of those coming from late-year debutant Jake Bowey.
The injuries wouldn’t even have to be seismic, season-ending ones, either: a big part of Richmond’s inability to go back to back in 2018 was an underdone Dustin Martin and David Astbury hampering their structure against Collingwood in that famous preliminary final. May was able to soldier through a torn hamstring in the grand final, but a hobbled Petracca or Oliver will surely be harder to cover.
All the above really proves is how tough it is to to back to back. The Demons are good enough, that’s for sure. But after plenty went right in 2021, plenty more will again have to fall their way in 2022 for them to retain their place at the AFL’s summit. Over to you, Max…
Prediction: 2nd
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
So there we have it. After four articles, more than 10,000 words and far too much gushing about Collingwood’s chances this year, my 2022 ladder has been completed.
Have I got most of it wrong? Almost certainly.
Will I have fun watching my predictions crumble into dust and getting constantly reminded about it throughout this wild, wacky and wonderful world of AFL action about to begin again?
Definitely.
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