2023 may be the year of Australian sporting expansion. Several codes have laid out clear plans for club expansion in the near future and beyond.
At NRL headquarters, Peter V’landys articulated this week that there is potential for a Pasifika team to enter the competition in 2025. Further south at AFL House, CEO Gillon McLachlan is looking to introduce a Tasmanian team into the AFL, with this introduction hinged on whether funding can be secured for a new stadium in Hobart.
In January, former ARU boss John O’Neill also flagged his preference for an expanded Super Rugby competition – whether that be with new teams from Japan or on Australian shores.
Two of Australia’s lesser sporting codes have also announced plans for expansion. The A-League has supposedly communicated to Auckland and Canberra that they are the favoured expansion clubs ahead of the A-League’s increase from 12 to 14 clubs in 2024-25. Lastly, NBL Commissioner Jeremy Loeliger told Newscorp in December 2022 that “There are pretty serious discussions happening with a number of other cities” which are rumoured to be Canberra, Gold Coast and Darwin.
What is driving this expansion agenda that seems contradictory with Australia’s small population of 25.7 million people? Television rights are the predominant factor. Increased games on television equates to improved revenue, which in turn creates inflated broadcast rights deals and greater financial security for Australian sporting codes.
Code bosses regularly argue that these cash injections will fund further infrastructure and development at grassroots level. However, these excess funds have historically gone towards improving elite level stadia, increasing professional salary caps, and propping up financially unsettled professional clubs.
In a highly competitive sporting landscape, expansion also provides an opportunity to dominate certain geographical areas. This motive has been demonstrated historically by the AFL’s incursion into Western Sydney and the Gold Coast. The rugby codes are also looking to utilise this method through potential international expansions in Japan (Super Rugby) and the Pacific (Rugby League).
More recently, expansion clubs have also shown a remarkable propensity to be competitive from their introduction. Western United were crowned A-League champions in their third season of existence, the Dolphins sit second on the NRL table after their introduction this year and the Tasmania JackJumpers reached an NBL Grand Final in their first professional season.
The JackJumpers have had instant and impressive expansion success. (Photo by Steve Bell/Getty Images)
An expansion agenda also includes risks and downsides. Firstly, additional teams may cause a dilution of the talent pool and competitiveness within a sporting league. The English Premier League demonstrated this theory when it was downsized from 22 teams to 20 in the 1994/95 season, with the rationale being to promote development and excellence at club level.
Secondly, the financial cost of expansion is substantial with a limited guarantee of return. For example, the AFL is reportedly spending $50 million on expansion clubs Gold Coast and GWS in 2023 alone, to ensure their competitiveness and sustainability.
The financial sustainability of Australian sporting codes may continue to be tested as their expansion plans intersect with a broader economic downturn that is expected throughout the Australian economy over the next 12-24 months.
How does the obsession with sporting expansion play out in Europe and America? Well, it doesn’t really. In Europe, all major round ball competitions rely on a promotion/relegation system to ensure financial stability and consistent competitiveness.
Across the Atlantic, the NBA and NFL have also shown a resistance to change. The NBA’s latest new franchise was the Charlotte Bobcats in 2004, whilst the NFL’s most recent new team was the Houston Texans in 2002.
Why do Australian sporting codes buck the trend and continue with expansion? In short, it is seen as the most effective way to assert dominance over other sporting codes in a highly saturated and sports obsessed Australian market.
Which code will win the expansion arms race? It’s anyone’s guess.
AR
Roar Rookie
Having a true 'national' competition is difficult in Australia for some pretty obvious reasons - the size and disparate population of the continent being the first two that come to mind. The other obvious one is the historical origins of AFL in Victoria and League in NSW. But if any one code can make the claim, it's clearly the AFL. It's the only comp that has (at least) 2 clubs in each mainland capital (SE Qld*). And whilst it doesn't have clubs permanently located in TAS, ACT or NT, it's been playing regular fixture matches in those states/territories for 15 + years. Tassie will be the next club, and then I think Nth Qld (perhaps near Cairns?), where Aussie Rules has been part of the furniture for years.
DTM
Roar Rookie
Why is constant expansion an obsession for Australian sporting codes? This "obsession" for constant expansion is not limited to Australia nor is it limited to sport. The CEO's of our sporting organisations are effectively politicians and are no different to 99% of the politicians around the world. They grow their revenue by a) increasing numbers and b) increasing prices. This means that population growth has to be infinite for Governments and organisations to survive financially long term. Of course, they only think of their next contract or term of government and the long term implications of their quest for continual growth are left for others to deal with sometime in the future. There is another option to increase growth in the short term. If for example, the dominant code made the lesser codes obsolete, some fans would change to the dominant code whilst others would choose not to follow sport. But even if the dominant code had all of the fans, there would still be a "need" to grow.
Rob9
Roar Guru
Does ‘mixed success’ not suggest positive and negative results? Certainly the AFL in Geelong (where it’s been for 100+ years) and the NRL in Townsville provide positive stories of professional clubs embedding themselves in regional cities, while the NBL in Geelong and A League in Townsville for example… not so much.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't imagine you are referring VFL expanding a team to a Geelong as being a mixed success? AFL is an absolute religion there. Similar story to NRL in Townsville.
clipper
Roar Rookie
The rating was 71k, which is gradually creeping upwards while tv viewership goes downwards. Not bad for Sat afternoon and second to Melbourne!
Timmuh
Roar Guru
League perhaps has PNG, though financial and security are questionable. Super Rugby is not just up to Australia.
JoshW
Roar Rookie
You'd think GWS would be used more often in the argument as to why expansion is a bad thing. You couldn't get it more wrong than they have here.
JoshW
Roar Rookie
Less than 20k watch the Swans in Sydney on tv. Literally more at the ground.
Tim Carter
Roar Pro
"The five major capitals." :laughing:
Timmuh
Roar Guru
All good, I was just have my a bit of fun with "getting picky". It wasn't to be taken too seriously.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
For the A-Leagues there is the chance to have the extra games in a true home and away format, bringing the game in Australia closer that seen in most Association Football competitions and the additional match readiness that can bring. Plus getting more players into professional set-ups to increase the higher end talent pool. For Association Football and Rugby, the footballs arguably most dependent on international performance, player depth is crucial. For League and Australian Football, it seems purely media revenue driven. League has very little true international competitive threat, Australian Football has none.
KenW
Roar Rookie
It's not an argument I'd bother to have, discard it if you like. My points are unchanged.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
Getting picky? ACT fronts the east coast? Well, I guess it depends on Jervis Bay, but that is regarded as its own territory these days - except for electoral boundary purposes.
Harvey Wilson
Roar Rookie
Money
Redb
Roar Guru
A team in each of the five major capitals is far more National than three by a long shot.
Randy
Roar Rookie
GWS crowd looked wretched yesterday - they're competing with Macarthur FC now, not any NRL teams.... Suns should have outdrawn the Titans considering Titans had to play in scorching heat in the middle of the day and Suns had a night game. I suspect both codes fudged crowds for that fixture though...
Rob9
Roar Guru
The reality is that beyond NZ; there’s little opportunity for expansion of Australian codes of any sort in the Pacific. These are very much developing countries and with the exception of PNG, their populations are akin to a local council LGA. The only reason PNG/the Pacific is being bandied around for NRL expansion at the moment is because it’s a soft aid ploy that’s being driven by the federal government to counter China’s increasing influence in the region. Melbourne has been a success for the NRL and Perth makes sense to be the next team outside the traditional heartland areas. Decent attendance in the opportunities it’s had to watch live NRL have shown that and its large east coast expat population provides a strong starting point to build from.
Megeng
Roar Rookie
The rugby codes have the option of looking over the oceans, east and north, as they expand. It makes more sense than trying to graft onto the south and west of Australia, where there's little natural interest.
Megeng
Roar Rookie
I'm starting to feel that concussion is going to be huge factor in the future of our codes. It's not going away no matter how many teams they add.
KenW
Roar Rookie
You've got to more specific with your wording if you want to get picky later. I said 'States that front on to the East coast', which would include Victoria, ACT and even Tasmania which exceeds 80% of Australia's population. It sounds like what you meant was 'beyond NSW and QLD' and there's definitely an argument there. The Dolphins were about a different purpose. Brisbane definitely required another option than the Broncos, and to have a game there every week. The next highest expansion options are probably Perth, NZ2 or possibly PNG or Pacific, which already would join Canberra, Melbourne and New Zealand as teams beyond NSW & Qld. Population and attendance are barely correlated though. In Sydney the Swans pull an average crowd 2x that of the average of the NRL teams, but on TV the NRL teams rate more than 3x better. Ignoring that there's far more NRL games (i.e. more overall attendance), it does indicate a strong cultural phenomenon in AFL of getting to games - it's an outlier against most world comps and a great asset to them - but it's not truly representative of overall popularity.