On Monday evening, Damien Hardwick’s time at Richmond, by his own hand, wrapped up.
The prospect of the triple-premiership coach calling it quits was always a real possibility: the Tigers, though they’ve shown glimpses of their old selves, have been a fading superpower since 2021.
After 13 and a half seasons at Punt Road, a collegial parting of ways could refresh the club and Hardwick himself – and like it was for Alastair Clarkson come the end of his time at Hawthorn, there will be no shortage of suitors.
Consider this a mid-season temperature check.
The coaching landscape shifts quickly, as Monday night demonstrated. Like tectonic plates beneath a volcano, the rumbling starts about this time of the year, and by the end of the season there is often an explosion.
Last year, it was Brett Ratten who was dumped once St Kilda was sure Ross Lyon was gettable. Ben Rutten was gone as soon as Essendon made a play for Clarkson and Ken Hinkley, and earlier on it was Leon Cameron and David Noble who fell.
All sackings – or resignations – are slightly different, but most clubs try to avoid their senior coach remaining unsigned into their contract year. The pressure mounts quickly: Alan Richardson (2019), Nathan Buckley (2021), Cameron (2022) and now Hinkley (2023) are rarities.
Across the last decade, coaches invariably get the axe or extended before entering the last year of their deals. Sometimes even receiving a new contract does not help – just ask Ratten.
This modern phenomenon, where clubs are spooked by contract-year-coaches, is why the next four months are critical for almost half of the 18 teams in the AFL.
With Hardwick’s departure, there are now seven coaches who are contracted until the end of 2024. On a job security scale, these coaches can be split into four distinct groups of two.
Master of his own domain
Chris Scott is a unicorn in the AFL coaching world – now that Hardwick has resigned, he is the only coach with the luxury of multiple premierships to solidify his position at the helm of Geelong.
Scott often talks about how time-consuming being a senior coach is, and by the end of 2024 only he will know whether he has the capacity to keep grinding after 14 seasons.
Scott, like Hardwick, would be an attractive proposition for a rival club.
Damien Hardwick (Photo by Graham Denholm/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Jury is out
Fremantle’s Justin Longmuir and Adelaide’s Matthew Nicks have coached almost the exact same number of games (Longmuir has one extra due to Fremantle’s finals run last year and each missed games during 2022 due to COVID), and both come out of contract at the end of next year.
While they are yet to do enough to warrant an early extension, both coaches have built their clubs into stronger positions than when they were appointed.
Adelaide’s list management strategy meant Nicks has come from further back than Longmuir, whose Dockers won an elimination final last year and have only just started to find form in 2023.
Unlike Scott and Hardwick, this pair are not as attractive to other buyers, so there should be no urgency to lock them in unless the Crows or Dockers are sure they are the men for the long-term.
Of course, leaving them without extensions tightens the pressure valve in 2024.
Finals berths should make summer negotiations relatively straightforward for Longmuir and Nicks. Anything less – especially for the Dockers – means they will likely enter 2024 with uncertainty hovering above their heads.
Justin Longmuir. (Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )
Not going anywhere
Craig McRae and Simon Goodwin are same-same but different to Hardwick and Scott.
The Collingwood and Melbourne coaches would attract interest from elsewhere on the open market, but don’t have the length of tenure to suggest a shift would be mutually beneficial.
Indeed, Goodwin has more to achieve with his Demons in this current window, while McRae will surely extend beyond 2024 well before this year is out.
Both are entrenched at their current clubs, and with plenty to do.
Collingwood coach Craig McRae. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
On thin ice
Stuart Dew and Michael Voss would know their futures are murky at best.
Neither is governing a team down at the bottom of the ladder, but elevated expectations leave little wriggle room for Carlton or Gold Coast in 2023.
Blues fans are impatient after a decade without finals, and so they should be. A full-scale rebuild began in 2015, and so far it has netted the same number of top-eight finishes as Gold Coast – zero.
Dew is constantly under pressure and has spoken of this reality several times. A Hardwick, Chris Scott or Hinkley type would satisfy the AFL in Queensland, but it’s too soon to make this call now. Dew is coaching a highly-talented team which is improving, but not at the rate they should have.
Similarly, Carlton’s list management team have handed Voss a finals outfit on a platter, complete with a Brownlow Medallist in Patrick Cripps and two Coleman Medallists in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, plus Sam Walsh and Jacob Weitering.
Still, neither the Suns nor Blues look any better than mediocre; and this is why the next 14 weeks loom large for Voss and Dew. Like with Clarkson, there will be several clubs now pondering whether their teams would be better off with Hardwick at the helm in 2024 or maybe even 2025.
Go on a run, and a summer re-signing could be on the cards. Fail, and they may not even make it that far. It’s that delicate.
Michael Voss addresses the Blues (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The next domino
We won’t know until August whether Port Adelaide believes Hinkley deserves a new contract.
If the answer is no – and not even a preliminary final berth may be enough to save him – then can Port convince 2004 premiership player Hardwick to come to Alberton? With Hinkley out of contract, Hardwick now a free agent and the club connection from the Power’s finest day in the AFL to date, the pieces all fit.
Or would Hinkley read the room, take Mark Evans’ call, and force the Suns to make a call on Dew?
It was only two years ago that Collingwood’s sacking of Nathan Buckley forced Hawthorn to accelerate its discussions around Alastair Clarkson, which led to an early departure for the four-time premiership coach as Sam Mitchell was guaranteed the role.
The other possibility is that West Coast eats into its soft cap and sacks Adam Simpson.
Simpson is contracted to coach a further 59 games for the Eagles and led the club to a flag five years ago, but his position has been questioned by club great Glen Jakovich.
West Coast is not a club which relies on cash from the AFL, so protections around Simpson’s tenure would be longer than the six months afforded to many other coaches. But with the soft cap sitting at $7 million, it would take a brave club to spend almost $2 million of this on an employee who is no longer there.
Of course, the Eagles could pay the tax… or Simpson could reach an amicable agreement and seek a job elsewhere. It’s a weird world when a coach who has more than two years still to run on a deal is both sackable AND has currency on the open market.
Adam Simpson chats with Jayden Hunt. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Either way, he must decide – much like Hardwick – whether he has the will to stick fat through a rebuild.
Stability in the AFL coaching world is only ever a fleeting term. 2024 looms large, for a multitude of reasons. on a variety of fronts.
AFL Coach Contracts
Resigned
Damien Hardwick (Richmond)
End of 2023
Ken Hinkley (Port Adelaide)
End of 2024
Matthew Nicks (Adelaide), Michael Voss (Brisbane), Craig McRae (Collingwood), Justin Longmuir (Fremantle), Chris Scott (Geelong), Stuart Dew (Gold Coast), Simon Goodwin (Melbourne)
End of 2025
Chris Fagan (Brisbane), Adam Kingsley (GWS), Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn), John Longmire (Sydney), Adam Simpson (West Coast), Luke Beveridge (Western Bulldogs)
End of 2026
Brad Scott (Essendon), Ross Lyon (St Kilda)
End of 2027
Alastair Clarkson (North Melbourne)
Arges Tuft
Roar Rookie
Tassie Tigers :)
Seano
Roar Rookie
There is no way the afl would have hot heads like Scott and Hardwick at the suns, they would love Hinkley though, a man manager and tactician he is perfect for the Suns.
Ace
Roar Rookie
Pretty much the same as Melbourne Peter..1 or 2 degrees I have a local team that I follow and there are not too many matches marred by rain Cold..puffer jacket time
Simoc
Roar Rookie
I think new coaches are the go. I hope Hardwick has had enough of coaching, I never rated Voss or Dew though they are very capable. Obviously a vital ingredient is missing. Hinkly the same. He is very good but has had the players to do the business if he was a good enough coach to win the flag, but its been a decade. I have no idea about Adam Simpson. It's like he stopped coaching after they won the premiership. They have been hopeless.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
How does Dimma handle the cold though? It's freezing in Tassie.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I'm sure their pay will soften any blow Sam. It's the same for all players changing clubs. Ollie Henry may snag a flag this year or watch his ex teammates win one. They both have 7 year security and who is to say the Tigers won't bounce back very quickly.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
Love Schofield. Reckon he does the best sports podcast around at the moment, breath of fresh air in the media. I think they’ll have to make some tough calls this season.
nics
Roar Rookie
Your last sentence hits the nail on the head and is the likely outcome. Sumich sounds like a rabble-rouser type (aka Darren Lehman as coach). I’m not sure how far that takes a list. The 2018 premiership was based on a culture that promoted friendship and family, which explains the loyalty the club has had towards it’s longstanding players. The way Schofield retired (dropped without a final game) left a bitter taste in the mouth – imagine if we’d done that to Sheed et al. I agree sometimes hard list management decisions need to be made, but they can sometimes backfire -> the Hawks are still closer to the bottom than the top years after culling Hodge, Lewis and Mitchell.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
It’s an interesting spot though. Craig McRae was a rookie coach when he started, Simmo was himself a first time coach when he joined West Coast. If you were looking for someone with experience I guess Don Pyke would fit the bill given his links with West Coast? Hahaha you could always take Suma ???? be good to see him off the back pages of the West. I think in all honesty Simmo probably coaches all of this year and starts the rebuilding process but I think it’s unlikely he’s the coach at the other end of it.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
Fagan may well end up as the director of football in this situation.
Nick
Roar Rookie
I think the timing is such that if Chris Fagan delivers a flag to Brisbane in the next year or so, he might decide to go back home and coach the inaugural Tassie season or two and hand the baton over.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I think Simmo would be stiffed to get the sack. He won a flag and he’s still the same person. The list has undergone massive changes. Clarkson, Scott, Dimma, etc get great wraps but it’s a team thing. All of those coaches would have benefited from great recruiters and lieutenant coaches as well. ——– Hinkley is a great man manager as is the Brissy coach whose name you can’t post but they’re lacking somewhat in other areas. So what, there’s many ways to skin a cat ( :laughing: ). It’s a hard gig. I read the NRL Coaches post and it’s universal this weird appreciation we have for coaches. So many things can go wrong yet the best brains in the business struggle to get success. And l think we too easily dump on them. I was unthinkingly calling for Nick’s to be cut. But he looks to be building something but how good would we be without Rankine, Dawson and the developing Rachele, etc??? ——— Bias Warning: the best coach l reckon was Neil Balme. He was welcoming, affable and stern in demeanour. He connected with his charges, was a thinker and made players feel good about their clubs.
Sam Branigan
Roar Rookie
That basically is my argument Peter... 6.5yrs to go and now they don't know who will be their coach and how that coach will view the list.
nics
Roar Rookie
Not sure our list is a job for a rookie unfortunately. As some wag put it - Matthews, Clarkson and the Scott brothers would struggle with these injuries.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Yeah that’s a whole other can of worms. Knights should never have played Lloyd as a half forward flanker, he doesn’t have the aerobic capacity for that
RT
Roar Rookie
Probably no sympathy from Knights who was given the heave ho by Frawley (and was best on ground in his final match played mid season).
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
No worries. And l actually have to hate Richmond because they have Glenelg mascot and colours. But as usual I tend to like players from opposition teams. Like, amazingly, Riewoldt and Dusty.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Sam, albeit a couple years later you could argue O'Meara, Wingard and even Tom Mitchell came to the Hawks to play finals and win flags. Look at Deledio and his timing when he left Richmond?
Ace
Roar Rookie
I would imagine 13th that many of us Tassy people would be pleased to have that group leading our new team into the system. The VFL season ,or two, will be a good stepping stone . No pressure on the players or coaches Just melding the hierarchy and players etc into a settled combination
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Good points. Just his general demeanour over the past few months, including his comments at today's presser, suggests he'll likely take a break. How long...who knows, but I'd be surprised if he is coaching next year. More likely, he'll do a Clarkson, take a year off, recharge the batteries and get back into what he loves. The Carlton position will likely be vacant then too. :shocked: