ANALYSIS: Slater's smarts win the day as Blues out-thought and out-fought by Maroons

They say that Queenslanders understand Origin better than their counterparts to the south of the Tweed. 

That might be true, but let’s be honest: this one wasn’t about heart, it was about smarts. Once again, the Blues were able to do all the material things that a team should do to win footy matches, but spectacularly failed to do so, and in an entirely predictable way.

The formalities were as follows: Queensland won 32 to 6, but when the game was still live, at the hour mark, they trailed the possession 55% to 45% – or a whole five sets, if you prefer – and the territory 68% to 32%. NSW had 35 tackles inside the Maroons’ red zone for just one try.

These things, statistically, shouldn’t happen very often, but have now happened twice in succession in battles between Billy Slater and Brad Fittler, and indeed, have happened on four of the five occasions they have faced off in the coaches’ box.

Slater’s team defended for their lives, with Daly Cherry-Evans’ run-down of Stephen Crichton and Reece Walsh’s soaring take right up there, but in truth, they weren’t asked nearly enough questions. 

But they also meticulously followed a gameplan, one that has barely changed across those five fixtures and yet continually manages to catch NSW cold.

Fittler must surely have known what was coming. His analysts must have pointed it out time and again. Yet this wasn’t a failure of execution: it was a failure of theory. They were outthought, not outfought.

Rugby league is often a game of attrition, of possession and position. But if you have the opponent attacking where you want them too, and can easily contain them as they do it, disparities in ball and territory can be negated. 

In that sense, Queensland played smart and New South Wales played incredibly dumb.

Slater’s tactics were identical to every game that the Maroons have played under his tenure, but worked perhaps better than they have ever done. 

NSW had, basically, all the of the field position, but couldn’t do a single thing in attack. Not everything went right, and losing Tom Trbojevic early didn’t help.

But injuries happen at this level and, of all the options, moving Damien Cook to left centre was among the worst solutions to the problem that Fittler could have picked.

Not only did it taken Crichton away from the edge with Xavier Coates on it – removing him from aerial contests – it then replaced him with one of the smallest players on the field.

Cook, too, completely starved Josh Addo-Carr of the ball all night – though in truth, it rarely made it as far as an edge in the first place.

Queensland’s tactic of jamming the edges went largely unchallenged, with Jarome Luai forced to crab back into the centre and, in the first good ball set, James Tedesco throwing far behind Brian To’o while under severe pressure from Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow.

It was the Hammer who was doing the bulk of the shooting, shutting down the Blues’ right edge. Granted, that might be because having a hooker stationed in the left centre meant that NSW were perfectly capable of blowing attacking moves on that side all on their own.

Josh Addo-Carr of the Blues react after a Maroons try during game two of the State of Origin series between the Queensland Maroons and the New South Wales Blues at Suncorp Stadium on June 21, 2023 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

It was vaguely comical: on every shift, one of Tabuai-Fidow or Valentine Holmes would fly out of the line, thus funnelling the ball back into forwards, exactly where Queensland want the Blues to attack.

This is not new, it’s been the obvious defensive plan from Game 1 last year, and yet NSW played like they had no idea it was coming.

Much as Queensland looked exceptional at times in attack, this series has been defined by their defence. 

The attack was highly efficient, aided by the ability to get through their work far faster. Their shift plays – again, hardly new stuff – were slick and isolated Cam Munster outside of the edge backrowers, creating the numbers on the outside. When he didn’t do it, Reece Walsh did. 

It was a gameplan based around simplicity and speed, taking opportunities as they arose rather than slowly playing set up. Even when it went wrong, as it did in the first half when Jeremiah Nanai’s flick pass to Coates went into touch, the mistakes came in the pursuit of something offensive.

Murray Taulagi of the Maroons celebrates with team mates after scoring a try during game two of the State of Origin series between the Queensland Maroons and the New South Wales Blues at Suncorp Stadium on June 21, 2023 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

They were never gunshy, which is more than can be said for their opponents. Only Mitch Moses and Cam Murray – only used in the second half – looked like they had a spark.

Moses was inventive, but rarely found anyone to go with him. His chip and chase in the first half should have had Crichton running alongside him, but the centre wasn’t wise to it.

When the halfback went on a short side dart, he went alone. Remember, this is the best short side exponent in the NRL. It’s something they have to be wise too and, indeed, wanting him to do.

NSW’s attacking chances through an hour of footy were a chip and chase, an intercept and a try off a ball on the deck. All it needed was a second kick to complete the chaos attack set.

For a side to lose by as many points as they did, to create as little from so much opportunity, is unforgivable at this level. The Blues deserved everything they got.

The Maroons, on the other hand, get to celebrate again. This time it wasn’t close, either, and that’s all on their brains and well as their brawn.