ANALYSIS: Roosters hopes hanging by thread as Raiders sneak home - will they have the hard conversation with Tedesco?

The Roosters’ finals hopes are hanging by a thread after another dispiriting defeat, this time 20-18 at the hands of Canberra.

It was same old, same old for Trent Robinson’s men in 2023: their attack was off, James Tedesco failed to make an impact and they conceded enough soft tries to ensure that they lost the game. 

Now, with seven wins on the board and a likely 13 needed at a minimum, they must have next to no margin for error. Next week’s trip to Manly could see their season over before the Origin period is completed.

Joey Manu was their only shining light, with two excellent tries, but beyond him, there was little else. Luke Keary and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves had a crack, but the attacking issues that have plagued them all year were on full display.

“I think we’re getting closer to nailing it,” said Robinson on their faltering attack. “We’ve identified what we think it is. If it was completely clear, we’d have had it fixed by now. There’s a few timing issues that are just slightly out of sync. It’s cost us this year, but I know it’ll open up.

“We just have to keep belief in the way that we’re preparing our system, and then loosen the grip. We’re choking the club at the moment trying to get it right. We need to allow a bit more freedom.”

Their opponents, however, march on. This was far from vintage stuff from the Raiders either, but they have become experts in winning games where they don’t look at their best. It’s a good skill to have.

On this occasion, they were indebted to the boot of Jamal Fogarty. His first spiral bomb caused Tedesco untold problems and, not for the first time, the bulk of their points came from his kicking. 

Canberra raced into an 18-point lead before the Roosters had fired a shot, then managed the game from there.

After a poor defeat to the Warriors last time out, this was exactly what Ricky Stuart needed. It is now nine close games that they have won this year.

“You can look at it as experience,” replied Sticky when asked why his side were so successful in tight fixtures.

“A lot of the boys know how to hold on to a lead and run a game down. They play a little more patiently.

“There’s so many facets to that game tonight – losing Papa so early and playing with one middle on the bench put a lot of extra strain.

“There were guys that were wounded but played on tonight, and it shows great resilience and character in the team.”

The injury toll from this game could haunt both sides with crucial fixtures coming up. Josh Papali’i left early with a hamstring injury that could rule him out for several weeks, while Angus Crichton also departed with an MCL issue.

Egan Butcher went off with a head knock and Jake Turpin with a rib complaint, to add to Nat Butcher’s Achilles issue and Sitili Tupouniua’s nerve problem. Bad as they have been at times, the injury toll is also a major issue for Robinson, especially in key spine positions.

The Roosters need to make a call on James Tedesco

It’s hardly news at this point, but the Roosters attack is absolutely dreadful. The lack of inventiveness is staggering for a side that continues to field Manu, Keary and Tedesco.

They had plenty of opportunity here, but created next to nothing. It was all side to side, no support runners and no deception.

Canberra, like so many before them in 2023, have worked out that the old-school umbrella defence can simply funnel Tedesco back into the middle, especially when Victor Radley is doing the ball-playing.

It calls into question the direction going forward.

Last week, Manu was a revelation at the back and the spark of everything good that the Roosters did, whereas tonight, back out in the centres, he barely touched the ball.

The first time he got the ball in anything like a decent situation, he scored. That came from Keary engaging the line, a runner being in motion to keep the defence honest, plus a late offload from the five eighth. In short, it was all the stuff that the Roosters haven’t been doing of late.

Then, Manu grabbed their second with a trademark leap for a kick. It was if he was auditioning to be involved more. The Kiwi centre ended the game with 12 possessions, ten runs and over 100m. When he got the ball, he was generally threatening. But he got nowhere near enough.

Things were less rosy at the back. Tedesco, the 2023 version at least, looks predictable and caused the Raiders no trouble at all. Defensively, he was responsible for several tries, being outjumped by both Jack Wighton and Seb Kris.

Teddy has all the runs on the board that he could want, but something has to give because what is currently happening is unsustainably bad.

Why are Canberra good?

Canberra are, unquestionably, a good football team. They’re sixth in the ladder, ahead of the much-vaunted Rabbitohs and Sharks, both of whom they have beaten this year.

Yet they also have a strongly negative points difference and, on a performance level, have often underwhelmed. When they’re bad, they’re really bad.

Ricky Stuart has been in charge since forever, but there’s not really a discernable style of play that one would associate with the coach. The Raiders are more a vibe, all effort and niggle. They must be a nightmare to play again.

The kicking of Fogarty helps, because he’s continually able to punt them out of trouble, and indeed, over the tryline. Wighton, who scored tonight, periodically does something spectacular but it’d be a push to say he’s been at his best.

Instead, there’s a whole lot of nuggety, awkward players – Jordan Rapana, Corey Horsburgh and the chief, Joseph Tapine – who generally play really tough and make life incredibly difficult for their opponents.

In a lot of ways, they do bear the mark of their coach. They play like the world is against them, with a real chip on their shoulder, a desire to make things uncomfortable. We’ll go there, can you come with us?

Maybe this is why they get whacked: if the intensity isn’t there, then nothing else is. It might prove a limitation against good teams with deeply learned systems.

But it’ll also bring them boilovers – think of the hold they have over Melbourne – and win them a heap of scraps like this one tonight. 

Canberra are the NRL’s ultimate counter punchers, happy to take whatever form their opposition least want to see. They won this on points in a stinker, and Ricky will take that all day long.