The Blues are in dire straits after two straight Origin series defeats, Brad Fittler walking out the door and no NRL coach wanting to take on a job which is increasingly becoming a hiding to nothing.
If you win, that is what is expected but if you lose, batten down the hatches for the spitstorm of verbal sprays that will come your way.
With seemingly few options on the table, the NSWRL has offered Michael Maguire a one-year, part-time deal to try to prevent Billy Slater’s marauding Maroons from racking up a hat-trick of shield successes.
This short-term contract is literally the bare minimum Maguire could be offered by the broken Blues powerbrokers.
Should he be thankful it wasn’t a two-game commitment with an option for a third if the series is still alive?
(Photo by George Wood/Getty Images for RLWC)
Past NSW coaches Craig Bellamy and Ricky Stuart were not keen to add Origin duties to their club commitments in 2024, while Laurie Daley expressed lukewarm interest about a return but after going 1-4 in his first five-year stint, there was nothing to suggest he would do any better a second time around.
Broncos assistant coach John Cartwright stuck his hand up and, as a former Blues player with decent NRL head coaching experience at the Titans, he would not have been a bad option but not necessarily an inspiring one.
Geoff Toovey had been tossed up in some circles and he also has merit despite an apparent lack of technical nous from his four-year reign as Manly coach.
The Sea Eagles made the 2013 NRL Grand Final during his tenure and won 61 of their 105 matches so it’s unusual to say the least that he has not since had a look-in elsewhere.
NSW have only had four coaches in Origin history with a record above 50% and they all held similar views to Toovey’s old-school approach of prioritising effort and motivation over tactical acumen – Ron Willey (five wins from seven Origins), Terry Fearnley (the historic 2-1 series win in 1985), Phil Gould’s 14 victories from 24 attempts and Wayne Pearce (five from nine).
With the likes of Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Cameron Murray and James Tedesco having an established on-field dynamic, the Blues coach does not need to complicate proceedings in the short time the team is in camp with elaborate game plans.
The knock on Maguire has been that he’s a micromanager who wants to control every aspect of his team before, during and after matches.
When you have players under contract as their primary form of employment over the course of a season, it’s an approach which can drag teams to the finals and all the way to trophies, as he did with Wigan and South Sydney.
But it can also wear thin when players are bombarded with intensity on an ongoing basis, as was seen in the finals years of his Rabbitohs stint and throughout his three seasons of underachievement at the Wests Tigers.
For the Blues, their hope is that in a short-term setting like a three-match Origin series, Maguire will be able to inspire the elite stars of the game without getting them offside.
Outgoing NSW Blues coach Brad Fittler. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Players at that level don’t necessarily need coaching but the team needs someone steering the ship in the right direction, getting everyone on the same page or whichever cliche that gets trotted out to describe a unifier of talent.
Maguire’s record as New Zealand’s coach since 2018 has been modest – he has won 10 of 15 Tests, highlighted by a 26-24 upset over the Kangaroos in his second match in charge.
But the Kiwis have lost three times to England, including their series in the UK five years ago, and despite pushing Australia all the way in their showdown, bowed out in the World Cup semi-finals last year.
It appears he’s probably going to be allowed to remain New Zealand coach on top of taking on the NSW gig – only in rugby league could dual eligibility in the representative ranks extend to the clipboard holders.
Maguire, who threw his hat into the NSW ring in 2018 when Fittler was first appointed, appears certain to put pen to paper on the Blues’ offer but with so few other legitimate options on the horizon, you wouldn’t blame him if he tried to hold out for at least a two-year contract.
It’s almost like NSW are hedging their bets by giving him a chance to prove everyone wrong while not being tied down financially to a coach beyond next year.
With Bellamy potentially finally retiring from his Storm role after next season, the Blues look like they’re leaving the door ajar for him to return in 2025.
(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Stuart or Eels coach Brad Arthur are other long-term NRL coaches who look like they’re coming to the end of their time at their current clubs so the Blues could have more options on the table 12 months from now.
Even if Maguire can put all the off-field distractions and speculation aside, the Blues are no guarantee to end the Maroons’ purple patch of the past two years.
They will undoubtedly be the favourites with the bookmakers on an on-paper talent basis but Slater has revived the Queensland spirit following the obliteration the Maroons copped in 2021.
Of the 17 players who will run out for Australia in Townsville against Samoa on Saturday night, 10 of them bleed maroon.
Coaches are masochists and inherent in their make-up is a belief that they can turn any team around but Maguire faces a mammoth task to bring the Blues back to life.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Cheers for doing the leg work…should have known it was too good to be true…
Fraser
Roar Rookie
They're an amazing front pairing, but that stat isn't entirely true. Leota went off at 24:48. Panthers score a penalty at 29:30. JFH goes off at 32:23. Leota came back on at 49:59. JFH came back on at 53:56. Broncos score 6 points at 54:49. Leota went off at 74:12. Panthers score 6 points at 76:37. So, it was 18-6 when both Leota and JFH were on the field. 26-6 when JFH was on the field. The second battle between JFH/Leota and Haas/Carrigan next weekend is mouth watering.
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
I hope not. I didn’t like those, I got nothing from it.
blacktown leagues
Roar Rookie
Gee Baz I didn't know that stat. I knew they played a huge part but that is way out there crazy.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Geez Paul tough calls on Madge, Ask Sam Burgess what he thinks of Madge. Matty Johns said today on the radio that Madge was the right choice: “It’s just the nature of the man he is. He is the most organized and professional coach I have seen”, said Matty. Some more. “Madge has been a huge mentor. I got to know him when I was 16 or 17 when I was playing Harold Matts and SG Ball, and he’s always said, ‘age is irrelevant. If you’re ready, you’re ready.”, Cameron Murray. Harry Grant said that he would not be the player he is today without Madge. I can go on. In terms of his record as the Kiwi coach who was a rabble when he took them over. He has won his last 9 from 11 and was very unlucky against Australia in the RLWC (14 to 16). Prior to that match, Madge had taken the Kiwis to the number-one-ranked team in the world. You haven’t seen any improvement, Paul? Do you recall what a mess both Wigan and the Rabbitohs were in before Madge arrived? He is the only coach this century to win a Grand Final in two continents and was awarded as the World’s Best Coach in 2014 by the RLWF. Btw, there were many options on the table for the prestigious gig that were not reported, and what makes you think that if he is appointed it is only for one year? Oh, that’s right, you read in the media so it must be right.
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
Nice Crystal Balling Max :thumbup:
Nat
Roar Guru
No one north of the border consider Qld under dogs. It’s only when they announce the teams and all the mug punters decide they need to part ways with their coin does the under dog tag set in.
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
Referencing 2024, not this year If fit, NSW will pick Turbo, Mitchell, Tedesco, Gutho and Edwards
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
That's a cool story Max, total fullbacks per team last year Games 1 and 2 both had one specialist fullback playing out of postion in both sides Game 3 NSW had only Ted, QLD had AJ and the Hammer. Never let the facts get in the way :thumbup:
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
Absolutely. They should nearly always be favourites - they obviously care more and that can be seen in the the results over the last few decades. They just seem to find an extra gear when wearing maroon
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
Queensland have to be underdogs, we will only have one fullback in the team, NSW will have 4
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
Maguire probably only wanted one year , With his "eye on the prize" at the Raiders for 2025 if Ricky stumbles along again next year
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
Hang on Nat, are you saying QLD are favourites next year and not the underdogs? :thumbup:
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yep… the Panthers last 15 minutes in the grand final was based on the battering they gave Brisbane in the first 40. Brisbane were out of gas. Heard an interesting stat the other day - the score in the GF when JFH and Leota were on the field was 26-0 They’d go close to the best front row pairing I’ve seen
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
Well said TB, "play like Penrith" has more than a few limitations. Firstly, in my opinion JFH and Leota are the best front row pair in the NRL. The Panthers are 30% less effective when they aren't playing. Haas is a great athlete but if you ask a QLD player who they would rather be tackled by Haas, JFH or Leota, they would all say Haas. NSW simply does not have the firepower in the forwards the Panthers have. Secondly, the Panthers win a lot of games because they are fitter than every team in the NRL. The Broncos faded in the last 15 minutes because the relentless assault of the Panthers had them gassed and they couldn't hold on. In SOO, fitness ain't how NSW is going to beat QLD, they are an elite team. NSW can't play Panther ball. Turning the ball back inside until QLD wilt won't work. Panther ball is too static for elite sides, we need a cunning plan. Unleash our ball players. Let Cleary/Moses run, Cody Walker to line up the holes. Tell Tedesco to stop emulating Gallen and getting in the way of the ball players. Less is more, wait for the gaps. Pick centres in the centres (go with me on this, its so radical, it just might work). Have Latrell ball playing in the centres and using his offloads. Play what you see, structure gives you a base but you need to use the skills of our best players, not put them in a strait jacket. QLD could have left the field in game one and we still wouldn't have scored. Pedestrian. Make sure the balance of forwards is between aggression and skill. We can't have all JWH type nutters (playing with 12 men while our psychos are in the bin is hard at SOO level), but we can't pick too many fancy Dan ball playing Schusters either. We need mongrel and skill. It's not rocket surgery, but when Cook was moved to centre I thought "maybe it is"....
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
Great comment. You've described a basic set of points NSW could adopt to game plan how they can beat the Maroons; win the forward battle, become less reliant on one playmaker and work on simple strategies to combat Qld defensive patterns
The Barry
Roar Guru
Teddy has been a brilliant contributor to NSW over the years but have results really rested on his head that much…? If his form equals win or loss it’s probably indicative of bigger problems. I’d also say part of his loss of form - for Easts and NSW - was not getting good ball in good position “Any coach at NRL level can see the Pennies tactics , so why don’t they just copy them and do just as well?” yeah, that’s what I’m saying. NSW were very vocal that picking Panthers players and combinations was a winning formula… but they didn’t really have any onfield tactic that remotely resembled Penrith “When NSW flogged the Benders the tactic of having a roving Turbo was the talk of the town but it also relied on having the cattle.” again, I agree to a point. When one team has the other hopelessly outmatched from a cattle perspective, then there’s far less a role tactics can play in getting a win. But when two teams are evenly matched in personnel, tactics play a bigger role Queenslands defence was brilliant. But NSW attack also had very few answers. The tackle in opposition 20m, possession and territory stats for the first two games were embarrassing. NSW had enough ball and territory to win multiple games, but didn’t really threaten
Stewy76
Roar Rookie
It's their culture that's floored thought Nat, (and I know I'm preaching to the converted here).. but if he fails he'll be crucified and if he succeeds he'll be credited. I honestly cant remember when Qld looked to blame anyone for our losses like NSW do. I also think we share our victories in a collegial way too. My point is, if Qld had one of the Wiggles as our head coach we'd accept that they are right for the job and get on with our mandate to beat the blues. As I look through this blog site I can see that punters are already divided over whether he is the 'right choice' or the 'wrong choice' .. this seems to re-enforce the sentiment that "they don't get it".. (Sorry NSW boys, I know you hate hearing it).. but, it's dead-set the case. Some of us are old enough to remember Fatty and a paddock of no-bodies giving NSW a hiding based on this very point. And, all of us are old enough to remember the achievements of "the worst Queensland team ever".. Anyway, I don't really want to solve NSW's problems - I'm more interested in watching it unfold decade after decade. :thumbup:
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
I heard Madge is on an incentive contract for each game, $500 for a win, $100 for a loss, so that will fire him up.
Nat
Roar Guru
Mike is about the only scribe who will go into analysis. However, his reliance on stats makes for good reading but overly reliant on history (or manipulation) and doesn’t take into account how people react under pressure. The advantage NSW have is that Billy has shown his hand in how he defends. That said, when NSW are reliant on one player to orchestrate everything it is easier to nullify what happens around them. In attack, origin is no different to any other game for 100 years albeit at a higher intensity. Win the forward battle. Freddy got cute with his selections and asked more of his big men than they can give. Cleary, Tell, Turbo and TEDE are brilliant but much harder to work wonders from 60m away than 20m.