It’s just two sleeps until Parramatta’s first game of the 2024 NRL season. As a fan, generally at this point optimism fills the air.
Like the majority of supporters, when the season hasn’t started, you can’t help but think anything is possible. This could finally be our year!
But for the first time in many years, I genuinely have no idea how the season is going to pan out for the Eels.
You can certainly make a case for them finishing in the top eight and just as easily mount an argument for why they will not.
Last year, the Eels finished in 10th spot with 12 wins and 12 losses. My strong feeling is that the competition this year is going to be more even. I still see the Penrith Panthers and Brisbane Broncos as the teams to beat but in terms of who is going to finish from third to tenth, it’s anyone’s guess.
Those spots for the top eight are going to be competitive (as always). But I would be very surprised if teams like the South Sydney Rabbitohs and North Queensland Cowboys missed out this year. The Canberra Raiders are always there and there abouts too but have lost a few key players.
While other teams have become stronger, the Eels have largely stayed the same. They lack an experienced hooker. With the unfortunate medical retirement of Josh Hodgson, the Eels will start most games with Joey Lussick. Brendan Hands, who had a solid first season, will come off the bench as a utility.
Their two main signings are Kelma Tuilagi and Morgan Harper and while reports out of pre-season about Harper are good, his inclusion does not fix my concerns about Parramatta’s lack of depth in the outside backs.
The Eels will be without suspended winger Maika Sivo for the opening rounds of the competition and already our depth is being tested. Further injury will be very difficult to manage, just like we saw last year when Waqa Blake was brought into the team very late into the season, lacking recent first grade experience and also confidence.
With the Eels needing a little bit of luck to make sure that their backline stays fit, I’m not willing to bank on that luck to guarantee a top eight finish.
Now, let me tell you how the Eels are going to finish in the top eight.
The Eels may have finished 10th last season, but they were only one win outside the eight.
Last year, so much went wrong for the team. Some of those factors were in the club’s control and others were not.
There were injuries through the season to Hodgson, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Shaun Lane, Wiremu Greig, Ryan Matterson and Joe Ofahengaue.
Dylan Brown was out for seven weeks after pleading guilty to sexual touching. At one point in the season, Matterson was the biggest five-eighth in the NRL. Daejarn Asi was capable of filling in for a couple of weeks, but did not have the experience to be playing at the top level in such a key position, week in week out.
Then there was the draw. I understand that decisions are made about which teams play each other twice during the season, but there was absolutely no excuse for Parramatta playing a team coming off the bye three weeks in a row.
I don’t care if its an advantage or a disadvantage, it just doesn’t need to happen.
Parramatta were also the only team to not have a bye during the State of Origin period when missing players.
The draw impacted the team at the start of the season. Their first four games were decided by four points or less. Parramatta only won one of those games. In some of those games goalkicking was the difference.
So even with all that going on, the Eels were just barely outside the eight. One more win would have made all the difference.
If only one of these factors (injuries, slow start, off field behaviour) improves this year, perhaps the Eels are in with a shot at the top eight.
So where does that leave me? Still as unsure as I was when I started the article.
I try to be an optimistic fan, so I’m going to try and leave the trauma of last season behind me. I’m behind my team and I’m predicting they finish in the top six in 2024.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
He’s certainly no unknown when he got picked up.. just another BA myth.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
If South’s and Manly keep Turbo and Latrell fit until at least deep in the season then I having them make the 8. A major injury for either of them earlier than the end of the origin period and I can see both of them missing the 8. Canberra won’t make the 8 and I think Parra on paper should finish ahead of the cowboys provided they aren’t heavily injury impacted. Sharks are shakey on depth too. They can’t have many and they come right back too.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
But to be fair he’s brought them from being a dumpster fire into being a top 8 threat every year. Including a GF. He’s coached the only team to seem to be able to regularly beat the Panthers in the regular season. He does need some help though with regards to outside back recruitment. For years he persisted with Waqa, the worst defensive centre I’ve ever seen. Only to let Tom Opacic go and buy Uncle Fckn Bully? Wait what? Has he learned nothing here? Bailey Simmonson’s move to the centres started off scratchy but improved more in 3 games than Waqa did in 5 years. He’s solid in the 3/4 line. If Parra can’t sign or find a gun centre for the left side they need to stick to Bailey, need to find an Opacic type centre for depth and a quality winger. They should be calling Pauga from the roosters.
The Boss
Roar Guru
Your assesment of their backs is fair, however Simonsonsen is actually not to bad and has some nice games in 2023. No team is without their flaws
Panthers
Roar Rookie
The Sharks regular easier draw?
Panthers
Roar Rookie
How is Hopgood a redemption story ? Hopgood was captaining the Panthers NSW Cup side. Was a quality player there that lead them to a GF Win . That’s why Parramatta bought him .
EELifer
Roar Rookie
Ryan Madison's preferred decision to serve a suspension rather than paying a fine got the Eels off to a terrible start, then injuries to key playing talent including Lane, RCG, Sivo, add in Josh Hodgeson only lasting a dozen games and Dylan Brown serving a 7 match ban, it's remarkable the Eels finished just a win away from 8th place. A better attitude, healthier squad and a very solid looking outfit points to a top 8 and possibly top 4 finish, provided injuries and suspension dramas stay away.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Matterson is a lock, Joffa is the 18th man.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
I think that’s more a function of how good the starters are.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Junior, RCG, Lane, Carty, Hopgood are the starters. Greig, Matterson, Tuilagi are the bench. Ofahaengaue, Ofahiki, Makhatoa, Rodwell, Moretti, Tuivaiti, Doorey are the depth. Forward depth is not a problem.
Carlos Marrickvillian
Roar Rookie
Parra's depth in our forwards seems like it's the best its been in a long time. Asides from our very strong Rd 1 starting 17 ... for middles we have Werimu and Ofahaiki Ogden both have potential (particularly big Wiremu) to be future Kiwi reps. In the back row we have Doorey and Moretti. Both excellent young players and perfect candidates for BA's magic backrower wand. Moretti is already considered a future star by a lot of people. Just below those guys in the pecking order we have Rodwell (2nd row) and Makatoa (middle) both good players that the club has put time into over the last couple of years.
Carlos Marrickvillian
Roar Rookie
Totally agree about our forwards Boss if injuries are kind this week it will be interesting to see what BA does with Wiremu. Hard to see who but someone will, if not round 2 eventually have to make way for him. It will presumably have to be either Matterson or Joe O I wouldn’t mind seeing BA try starting with Reg on the bench for 15 and let big Wiremu have a crack at starting games. As you say Tuilagi and I hope Harper as well, seem like real likely candidates for a BA makeover miracle as well.
Carlos Marrickvillian
Roar Rookie
I’m glad everyone is under rating the Eels. I think our best side, if it can stay uninjured for most of the season and be there at the business end and can win. There are issues with depth in the outside backs but I think this is over stated. When Sivo returns we’ll have as back up, Asi and Talagi, both exciting young players who can cover any position as well as halves and FB Harper and Dunster covering wing and center. Players (for different reasons) have a lot to prove and are being underestimated by a lot of people. I’m looking forward to seeing Harper in particular over the next few weeks. Then we have Lumelume and Cini both good players who would not be first picked in any team but also wont let anyone down. I honestly think we have one of the best if not the best forward pack in the NRL. And I’m glad to see Hands on the bench for Rd1 particularly if it means BA is re thinking his playing players for 80 mins in the middle.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Not too keen on their pack, but they have some good backs. Really like to see Dykes get a good run this year.
astro
Roar Rookie
Dragons, Bulldogs, Raiders and Tigers all to share the wooden spoon.
astro
Roar Rookie
Yeah, maybe I'm over-valuing the draw. There's just so little that separates those 'middle' teams that I think the difference between making the 8 and not making it, will come down to 1 or 2 wins. Even so, the Sharks on paper look pretty solid to me. Hynes is a class player and I think Trindall is in for a big year...he's only 24yrs old and looked good in the Indigenous game. They also have speed and size out wide, and a big pack with Finucane and Rudolf coming off the bench. Should be hard to beat...at least until the first round of the finals!
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Tipping’s tough
jammel
Roar Rookie
Be nice if the Raiders could come 6th or 7th this season. Use a better of the forward power...with some offloads :) I'm expecting big things from Tapine/Big Red/Papa/Huddo/Fogarty/Rapana/Savage/Strange :)
Nat
Roar Guru
I think I write this every year but nobody can predict where Parra will finish. 4th is as likely as 14th. The one upside is they had their poor year in 23 so it could be on the upswing again.
Nat
Roar Guru
Although this year most of those teams are expected and likely to improve. The Sharks are status quo so where do they get better?