Overreacting to a single loss is one of the most overplayed scenarios in sport, but it’s important for the Swans to still believe that they are one of the flag favourites for 2024.
For supporters, the loss to the Tigers was a frustrating hiccup, particularly given the heavy favouritism and expectation.
More and more, at least for fans, the Round 2 win against Collingwood at the venue feels like an aberration, given it’s Sydney’s only win at the MCG from their last seven outings. Yet, Sydney was a premiership contender as soon as the trade period finished last year. The club entered the season as a likely top-end team. And with a 75 per cent win rate through four games, soon to be improved to 80 per cent before their early bye, they remain, a logical tip for the flag.
Of course, no one is specifically saying that after a Round 3 loss, Sydney can’t win the flag, but the reaction has certainly been disproportionate to the output.
It was an off game, for sure. The Swans were simply outhunted by a more inexperienced, hungry group with nothing to lose. It felt like they took the Tigers lightly and suffered the ultimate consequence.
If we look at the opening month of the season though, they key indicators are great for Sydney. Sydney’s defending well overall, they did so particularly strongly against two fellow flag contenders.
In each of their first three matches, the Swans forced their opponents to over-possess significantly, predominately through the midfield. They do a good job in defending space with their small forwards, whether it’s through tackling or implied pressure, and their occupation of space gives Sydney enough time to get numbers into the back half. As a result, the team is conceding just nine marks inside 50s, ranked as the fourth-best defence of that statistic. Playing the percentages, they’d rather force opponents to take flying shots from distance or difficult shots at ground level.
Ultimately, the Swans are a bit undermanned defensively, so they’re using the pressure game higher up the ground to minimise the number of one-on-ones they’re exposed to at the back – Tom McCartin and Nick Blakey are performing well regardless, as is Lewis Melican given his opportunity, but being able to peel off, intercept and counter-attack is made easier with the team defence.
Where this fell apart in the end against the Tigers was the injury to Dane Rampe, who remains arguably their single most important piece. On the run mid-game, it’s nigh on impossible to tactically adjust to a team losing their best lockdown defender.
There were moments when the Swans felt like they were taking control of the game, but their quick ball movement caught them out without Rampe marshalling the troops. That’s fixable going forward and Rampe will return in around a month regardless.
Upon his return later in the season, we should expect to see more of Callum Mills behind the ball when not rotating through the middle. The positioning of such a steady player in the back half with experience, good hands and aggressive tackling will almost act as a version of Rampe across half-back.
It’ll force the opposition to try and breach a strong defensive line two times instead of one, which will just make it harder to be direct.
Offensively, they’re efficient and pretty direct. They’re one of the best teams in terms of disposals per score in the competition, they’re ranked fifth for inside 50s and marks inside 50 and are third for scoring shots per game through four games.
Not to minimise the impact of the legendary Lance Franklin, but there’s more of an unknown about the Swans’ attack now without the domineering focal point and the team looks a lot better now.
The disappointing part of the loss against the Tigers was that their pressure game was well off what it is usually – as Robbie Fox, Will Hayward, James Rowbottom and James Jordon all average two tackles inside 50 per game – rated elite.
Tom Papley and Hayward rate elite for their marking inside 50, Logan McDonald is developing nicely while they’re getting a lot of run from advanced midfielders to help hit the scoreboard.
If we’re to look at the Swans as a whole, this really is a group that looks good all over the park and is functioning at about 75 per cent capacity.
Luke Parker’s impending return should solve the Isaac Heeney dilemma. As stellar as the 27-year-old’s start to the season has been, in no way should he be used as a full-time midfielder if the Swans are serious about his longevity for the season and his impact.
First, they can play the exact same role and split it 50/50 in the forward line. Heeney has been one of Sydney’s best aerial targets while rating above average and often elite for pressure at ground level. That’s the Swans’ go this season, to tackle hard inside 50 to slow down any counter-attacks. They can’t rely on Papley to do it, and Hayward likes to venture up the ground.
Heeney looked gassed against the Tigers and that’s four games into the season. A pure rotation with Parker will increase the output of both players.
Another midfield dilemma to solve will relate to the inclusion of Taylor Adams, who spent last year at Collingwood more as a high half-forward.
One would suspect he’s part of the larger rotation that gets some more time in the middle, but that role is actually pretty suitable to him and the Swans with their team defence. His kicking is much better with space and his ability to hit targets inside 50 improved significantly.
More pertinently, having Adams and Jordon on respective forward flanks and pushing up may allow Longmire to pull the trigger and get Errol Gulden into the centre bounce rotation on a permanent basis. Gulden’s arguably the Swans’ best player and has been spending far too much time on the wing and as an outside midfielder to have a direct impact on the game. His fitness base is one of the best in the league and it’s benefitted certainly without having to crash into contests, but the 21-year-old’s cleanliness at stoppages has been lost in the opening month to the desire of using him as a runner.
Chad Warner and Errol Gulden. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The inclusion of the three veteran absentees can occupy spots in attack and defence enough to push Gulden back into the midfield, which will be key to maintaining that two-way running.
Sydney’s got so much untapped potential tactically that hasn’t been able to be used so far based on Longmire’s trust, which is perfectly normal early in the season, but leaves a group susceptible to bad, uncommitted performances, as the Swans produced against the Tigers.
And while a month isn’t enough time to truly judge a playing group, the early signs are that the Swans have improved their offensive ball movement and the way in which they want to score, while defensively, they’re defending the entire ground, they’re occupying space well and are particularly restrictive in allowing their opponents to hit up simple targets.
As a whole, that’s a pretty impressive collection of improvements that tend to be indicators in going a long way into September in the AFL.
Add the fact they’ve been pretty undermanned in this opening portion of the season, and it’s been a big tick overall. If you’d asked anyone whether the Swans would take having won three games in the opening month of the season, which included an away fixture against the reigning premiers and an opener against Melbourne, you’d have been met with a lot of positivity.
We’re in that exact situation heading into a clash against the cellar dwellers of the competition, and there’s no reason to feel anything other than positive about the Swans.
By the time the difficulty of the fixture ramps up, they will have welcomed back Rampe, while Parker and Adams will both have had good reps under their belt.
The Swans are one of the very best teams in the AFL in 2024 and overreacting to an early season loss serves no good for a flag contender.
.kraM
Roar Rookie
Eagles were solid, Sydney not so much.
Wikipetia
Roar Rookie
Sorry basing it on finals especially grand finals. Yes I am a hard marker. He has had a fine career but is just below the top echelon for mine. (He does a lot of club footy visits and is extremely popular with coaches parents and kids: so I acknowledge I am in the Kane Cornes quadrant, or veering there. I guess I just didn’t see him as an automatic recall when Heeney etc have been slicing it up in the mids. I feel like the Swans need to be different to take the final step.) Peace, out!
Knackaz
Roar Rookie
Parker “too hot and cold” ?? You must be talking about a different player. The Anvil rarely plays a bad game and is the heart and soul of the Bloods. One of the hardest, most respected footballers in the AFL, and obviously straight back in. Will probably play more forward now in his final years. Great hands and excellent kick for goal …
Ace
Roar Rookie
I guess time will tell how they use...or not use ...Parker But I still see him as a plus
nics
Roar Rookie
What I will say is that Sydney will learn nothing much from tomorrow's 100 pt shellacking of my mob. Somewhat glad I've got an engagement party to go to.
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Not much has been said about Ooze’s coaching but he definitely got the chocolates against a more fancied Horse. Missing personnel is not an argument the Swans want to take up against that Tiger team. Great effort Tigs and it was in the 3rd when the pressure was at its peak. :thumbup:
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Interesting a couple of Swans players go down and it is the reason for defeat. On that basis Tigers must be a lot better off than the Swans. I see 8 players in Tigers side facing the Saints have played VFL this year and there have only been 2 games!
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
I think there was a certain arrogance in the Swan’s approach against the Tigers. They believed they could overcome the Tigers admirable pressure by just runnng and gunning. In the past Longmire teams have always had a lower gear. A capacity to kick short to uncontested marks, slow the game down for a few minutes to see out a burst of high intensity from the opposition. Richmond didn’t sustain the 220 plus pressure of the early game but the Swans had lost control of the match. Good coaching by Yze. Less impressive on field leadership from Sydney. It’s the first time this year that the loss of Callum Mills, who as a captain owns strong tactical instincts, has been glaring. Rampe’s injury was important. Mill’s absence was match defining.
Cinderella's Big Score
Roar Rookie
The logical validity of an argument is a function of its internal consistency, not the truth value of its premises. Or so the internet says. Then again, the internet would say that!
Wikipetia
Roar Rookie
Parker too hot and cold for my liking
Ace
Roar Rookie
As Christo said ..Adams is in this week. And Parker and Papley would be great compliments to the talls What a pair to contain Again mho
Ace
Roar Rookie
It's been a great start for Heeney Truly the x factor
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
That's very footy media.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I looked at Nick's latest presser and it's no different to the previous three. He's DMW or at least should be. There's quite a bit of feeling about him amongst us fans. Clearly the resign was ill-informed and premature.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I think they were unlucky to lose so many close ones last year and I'm not counting that goal. Using last year as a base all they had to do was win away from home. They've certainly regressed.
Christo the Daddyo
Roar Rookie
Heeney has never put together a standout season for the Swans. Individual games - sometimes even a string of games where he's looked a million bucks. But maybe this is the year where it all comes together for him? Fingers crossed...
Christo the Daddyo
Roar Rookie
Adams is back this week.
Col in Paradise
Roar Rookie
Nope...didn't even have them in the 8 for this year...they were lucky last year...and now back to where they were pre23!!
Macca
Roar Rookie
Yeah it seems a bit like - I want to write about how good Sydney are this week but they lost to Richmond last start so I will create an issue to respond to
Wikipetia
Roar Rookie
I’m not sure either Parker or Adam’s should walk straight in. The kids are doing pretty well