To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the death of the Dragon’s season were exaggerated. They are now that most hazardous of commodities: a side with nothing to lose and a point to prove.
That makes them possibly the most dangerous team left in the comp.
It is possible that – after the wheels appeared to have totally fallen off the Dragons’ wagon just three weeks ago as they trudged off Kogarah to the resounding opprobrium of their faithful, having just been pumped 38-0 by the struggling Bulldogs – the Red V have got their mojo back.
While the season-ending injury to Gareth Widdop has dampened the reborn optimism of St George Illawarra supporters, the authoritative manner of their away victory – and the reborn dominance of their hitherto struggling pack – means they can trouble any opponent.
Looking back through the two decades of the NRL, there are a number of examples of a roughie storming the pack come finals time to make the decider.
While there is no question that consistency and high standards are key attributes in achieving success in September, there is also a strong case that timing your run can be just as important.
The Dragons may have timed their run perfectly.
Have a look at these stats:
Season 2018
| Metres gained | Metres conceded | Missed tackles | Tackle breaks | Tries scored | Tries conceded |
| 1425 | 1386 | 23.6 | 32.8 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
Rounds 17-24
| Metres gained | Metres conceded | Missed tackles | Tackle breaks | Tries scored | Tries conceded |
| 1400 | 1695 | 22 | 27.5 | 2.6 | 4.75 |
Round 25 and finals Week 1
| Metres gained | Metres conceded | Missed Tackles | Tackle breaks | Tries scored | Tries conceded |
| 1400 | 1332 | 18 | 40 | 5.5 | 3 |
The Dragons’ metres gained remains relatively consistent.
While their missed tackles remain consistent across the season and during their Rounds 17-24 struggles, in the last two games their defence has been great.
When they weren’t doing well, their tackle breaks per match drop right down – but in their last two games, that rate has exploded. That also applies to their tries scored.
This has had the flow-on of their tries conceded dropping back to sustainable levels.
What this tells us is that Paul McGregor’s men have never been bad at missing tackles but that when they miss them they often lead to ties and metres conceded.
Further – and most vitally – this is a side that does well when they are busting tackles.
And who busts the tackles for the Red V? Their backs mostly. Against the Broncos, Kurt Mann made seven, while Jordan Pereira, Tim Lafai, Nene MacDonald and Blake Lawrie made four each. However, high tackle breaks only happen when the forward pack is making room for them to move.
And that is what has happened in the last two matches.
Against the Broncos, Tyson Frizzel made 136, Leeson Ah Mau made 139 and Jeremy Latimore made 115.
AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts
Most vitally, the Dragons started playing positive footy again. They returned to the attacking and optimistic style that set them up so well in the first half of the season.
There are quite a few suggesting that the club’s chances are gone with Widdop’s shoulder. But that isn’t true. For all the Dragons’ dominance against the Broncos, Widdop added only one try assist, one line break assist, and four kicks for 98 metres. He made just 11 metres from four runs.
Far more influential were the three line break assists laid on by Cam McInnes and Tariq Sims returning to his running best. And that was Ben Hunt’s finest match for quite a while – he’s got a point to prove too.
You could visibly see the side become a real force again. After weeks of us maligning them, saying they were shot ducks, booing them and burning our jumpers, the boys from Kogarah and Wollongong have had enough and they are clearly out to show us all just what they can do.
Any side in their way needs to be ready for the real deal. An opponent who underestimates St George Illawarra now will get swept aside, just as the Cowboys swept aside so many in their unlikely run to the 2017 grand final.
These type of Cinderella runs have popped up quite a few times in the NRL era.
In 1998, the Bulldogs qualified ninth for the finals series. Just to make that lowly ranking, they had won six of their final eight games. They then collected the scalps of the Dragons, Bears, Knights and Eels on their way to the decider.
Unfortunately, they came up against the behemoth Broncos side. However, it was a hell of an exciting ride!
The 2009 Jarryd Hayne-led charge of the Parramatta Eels has become folklore. Languishing in 13th spot, they won seven of their last eight games to qualify eighth. They then beat the top-placed Dragons, followed by the Titans before, despatching the Bulldogs on their way to the big dance.
Only a salary cap breaking Storm side – as well as a very dodgy penalty when the ball was clearly dropped cold – stopped the fairy tale being completed.
AAP Image/Action Photographics, Robb Cox
In 2010, the Roosters sat in ninth spot after Round 13. They then won eight of their last 12 to qualify fifth for the finals. Once they got there, they eliminated the Wests Tigers, the Panthers and the Titans en route to the grand final where they were easily bested by the Dragons.
In 2011, the Warriors won seven of their last nine home-and-away games to climb from ninth to sixth. They then went on an away winning spree, beating Brisbane, the Tigers and Melbourne, before falling short against the Sea Eagles in the decider.
The Cinderella run that has the most resemblance to that of the Dragons’ chances this season is that of the Cowboys just last year. North Queensland, without their talismanic leader Johnathan Thurston, lost five of their six last regular-season matches and only scraped into the finals when the Dragons gave up 12 late points to go down in their final-round match against the Bulldogs, ceding their place in the finals.
However, once they were in, the Cowboys defeated the Sharks, the Eels and the Roosters, before getting thumped on the first day of October.
Why did their form improve so sharply in the finals? Because they had nothing to lose and decided to back themselves. They played without fear. They played with optimism. They were unburdened by worries of losing because – like Jon Snow – their season had already been dead and buried.
The Dragons are now exactly in the same mindset with a point to prove to the likes of me, who totally wrote them off.
Do not be surprised if they are able to go one better than all of the Cinderella runs that have come before them.
Peter
Guest
All these efforts pale into insignificance against the efforts of the great Manly side of '78. Although they finished second they lost the qualifying final ,and then played 5 sudden death games including 2 replayed semis and 2 Grand finals (because of draws) in 3 weeks! And won it!
Harvey Wilson
Roar Rookie
Without Widdop, i dont think they can get there for the title.
Ray Paks
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't go with Aitken, the way he succumbed to the injury against the Dogs, I think he's a big chance of relapsing 10 minutes in, and something like that just throws the spanner into the works. I'll stick with the big body young gun whose got goal kicking ability and can bend the defensive line relatively well. Aitken is a risk for mine
stevesyd
Roar Rookie
The Dragons are long odds for good reason. Souths in a canter.
buttery
Roar Rookie
I think the refereeing will have a big outcome on the result, as we saw on the weekend, the ethos of letting the game flow was significantly different from Fridays game to the rest of the weekend & played into the Storms slowing down of the play the ball.
Tim Gore
Expert
Nah, not good mail. I just love aitken.
JN
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't say it was that flukey, however, I think you guys should probably win this game. With quite a few Dragons out, that should be the nail in the coffin. But Rugby League is a strange game.
steveng
Roar Rookie
I love it, what is this pressure business??? There's never been pressure this year, we've done better than anybody was expecting and more!!! All is well at the burrow, the Dragon fans are all coming out of the woodwork, they have already won the comp, as they will do this and that to us??? Just remember, none of you expected to beat the Broncos1!!! That was a fluky win over the Broncos last Sunday as you were fortunate that the Broncos 'didn't turn up' which won't happen with the Bunnies, just remember, we are quite achievers and we wont brag and/or give out our secrets lol wait and see at 21:20 Saturday 15 Sep when we will be singing the mighty 'Glory Glory to South Sydney' song. Go the Bunnies, all I can say is that 'we are certainties'!!!
Kenw
Guest
Is that some good mail Tim? Personally I think Lomax might offer more, Aitken is a bit of a worry with his defensive positioning. I think the bench will definitely change though. Considering the way players have been dropping recently Mary has to be thinking about a utility - none of the 4 players on the bench would be useful anywhere except front or back row. With Mann in the halves that opens up a spot for Nightingale. He can directly cover (or shuffle to cover) any position on the field and, if not needed for injury, can do an effective 15 min stint in the forwards. With long minutes in his regular forwards, Mary has had the luxury of not really needing a 17th man most weeks - rotating it around to give fringe players a quick run. With Vaughn & Widdop out and JDB on a dodgy leg he'll have to be a bit more careful
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
The way things are going either could win it....but....I can’t get the Dragons 0-38 loss to the Dogs a few weeks ago out of my mind. That’s a red flag.
Dodgy Dragons
Roar Rookie
Looking forward to it as all the pressure is on the rabbits as they are expected to win. If the dragons turn up again on the weekend, I reckon we are a great chance - the Burgii will get the dropsys, Sam will iron someone out and we will come home with a wet sail. The first exchanges will be the key and I can’t wait for the pair of them to throw the kitchen sink at each other. Go the dragons, although Widdop’s lose is huge for us and souths are rightly favourites
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
In 1994 the NSWRL were using some of my software so they asked me to provide them with a top 8 finals systems. I gave them a system of 2 groups (1,4,5,8 ) & (2,3,6,7) using the top 4 system with the group winners playing the GF. They adopted this and had it published but changed it by adding the crossover when they realised two teams could play each other twice before the GF. The AFL then copied our system as it was much better system but I do recall they did use the awful McIntyre system for a while.
Don
Roar Rookie
I’m with the bookies on this one and going Souths by a fair few. The Broncos were just awful and whilst winning form is good form, I reckon Souths in defeat showed a lot more positives than the Dragons did in victory. And I’m not sold on Frizzel delivering a barnstormer either. My impression of him in big games like SOO is that when his side is on top he’s looking for more ball and plays great. When he’s put on his backside a few times early and his side is struggling he tends to drift out of games. Will the real Ben Hunt stand up this weekend? He can play but will his forwards give him the space and momentum?
Jim
Roar Rookie
Might come on to the bench perhaps, but can't see him starting - given with Widdop missing, Lomax is clearly needed for his gun barrel goalkicking.
Adam
Roar Guru
Tariq is the key and I think the Rabbitohs will focus a lot his way. Make him tackle a whole lot more than the Broncos even bothered to try. I will be tipping the Rabbitohs but with absolutely no confidence.
thecolumn
Roar Rookie
Will be tough without Widdop.
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
You're right about the Broncos but 1995 was an eight team finals series. In a five team series, fifth place would have to beat all four teams above them. Canterbury nearly did it in 1979 but lost to St George in the grand final.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Unless St George dominate the usually dominant Souths pack, I give them little chance on Saturday. But there is a chance they could dominate in the forwards, and I see the key here being with their bench that completely buried the Broncos pack last week. Latimore, Lawrie, Leilua were terrific, and now with Sele added, they look a more complete forward focused bench unit than the very good Cam Murray, the OK Jason Clark and the likely little sighting of Hymel Hunt & Dean Britt. If the Burgi troop can again be kept reasonably in check, then Cook is limited, and the Bunnies go-forward is restricted. The other issue that may assist a Dragons upset, is the injury concerns around Reynolds' shoulder, and possibly Inglis' ribs as well ? In saying all that, I would still favour the Bunnies who I believe were very stiff to go down to the Storm last week, and they will pose a far different proposition for the Dragons than the two awful performances put up by the Knights & Broncos that Tim uses to highlight the Dragons improved stats.
Worlds Biggest
Roar Pro
Nice one Tim, the Dragons win has put everyone on notice, playing with freedom and confidence can take you a long way. Souths certainly have a game on there hands and this Bunnies fan is a little nervous. The Dragons pack and bench will go toe to toe with there opposition. In fact the Dragons have the advantage from the bench. Siebold only plays 15 which makes it very difficult. Widdopp is an obvious big out, Hunt will need to be the man with McInnes helping out on play 5 options. For Souths, I am intrigued how they will come out after a ferocious game last week, that would have been draining on all levels. I do expect Sammy to come out with a point to prove and Cooky hasn't broken off a big run for a while, could be due one on the weekend. Can Sims get in Sammy's grill and unsettle him ? Souths right side defence has been poor with Gagai the main culprit. I expect the Dragons to send plenty of traffic down that side. This game will be a very close run thing.
Con Scortis
Roar Guru
Hey Scott. I was more having a go at my own fellow fans, mainly 3-hats, who carry the burden of massive chips on their shoulders. I'm not like that!