2018 AFL Grand Final forecast: West Coast vs Collingwood

For the seventh year in a row, we have a Victorian team taking on a non-Victorian team in a grand final.

The Victorians have had their way over that stretch, winning the past five – thanks in large part to the Hawks’ three-peat.

More AFL Grand Final
» BUCKLAND: West Coast change everthing and win it all
» Match Report: Eagles premiers in an instant classic
» Five talking points from the match
» WATCH: Video highlights from the match
» West Coast Eagles player ratings
» Collingwood Magpies player ratings
» Best and funnies tweets of the grand final

After the past two premiers, we shouldn’t be surprised anymore about who ends up on the MCG in late September, but I doubt anyone would have predicted this pairing would face off for a premiership.

Not that it’s an unfamiliar stage to them. This will be West Coast’s seventh grand final appearance, which will tie them with Geelong for the most in the AFL era. Collingwood are back for the sixth time.

These are probably the two most powerful clubs in the competition. Success is never far away.

Last time they met
It was clearly the best game of the finals series and one of the best matches of the season when these sides last met in the qualifying final. The lead changed hands 11 times throughout the night, but a five-goal-to-one final quarter was enough for the Eagles to turn a ten-point three-quarter-time deficit into a 16-point victory.

A rusty Josh Kennedy – playing his first game since Round 18 – started to look more like himself in the second half, booting both of his goals after the main break.

After spending time in hospital a week earlier, Collingwood skipper Scott Pendlebury was well below his best with just 17 touches.

What’s changed?
Very little is different in terms of personnel. Will Schoffield – having replaced the hamstrung Brad Sheppard – is the only player set to line up who didn’t appear in the qualifying final. After a season riddled by injuries, the Pies have, somewhat remarkably, remained unchanged this finals series.

The biggest difference is the venue. The Eagles won’t have the best part of 60,000 screaming fans on their side this time around. And the Magpies will be more comfortable on their home deck and the same ground they’ve played their past two matches – being able to sleep in your own bed rather than fly across the continent is pretty handy, too.

Neither the ground nor the travel worried the Eagles the last time these sides met at the ‘G. Despite a season-ending injury to Nic Naitanui, West Coast were comfortable winners. Their confidence will no doubt be boosted by that result.

Big forwards, big problems
West Coast’s key forward combination of Kennedy and Jack Darling is a nightmare for most sides; for a Collingwood defence without a traditional key defender, the star pair loom even larger than normal.

For all the rust in the qualifying final, Kennedy still managed six scoring shots and four marks inside 50. Tyson Goldsack will never lack for effort, but he’s simply not equipped to deal with the size and speed of Kennedy. Jack Riewoldt got hold of Goldsack in the preliminary final to finish with five goals, and a fit and firing Kennedy is every bit the player Riewoldt is – and then some.

Darling, too, is a problem. At times earlier in the year he looked like the best player in the competition. He booted three goals from six scoring shots in the Eagles’ prelim demolition of the Demons after kicking a couple in the qualifying final.

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Tom Langdon will likely get first crack at him, with Jeremy Howe on standby.

What rarely gets spoken about with Kennedy and Darling is their defensive work. In the supposed smallball era, in which forward pressure is crucial, the Eagles lose nothing by playing the two traditional key forwards due to their ability – and willingness – to chase and tackle.

Collingwood have their own big forward who has given opponents grief recently. Mason Cox’s preliminary final had to be seen to be believed. Three goals and eight contested marks are the stuff of dreams. If he can go close to replicating that on the biggest stage, Collingwood will win.

The Eagles will have their say in that. West Coast’s defenders did an excellent job in the qualifying final of bodying Cox and denying him a run at the ball.

Midfield: Advantage Collingwood
Elliot Yeo and Luke Shuey are stars, Jack Redden is playing his best football since arriving at the Eagles and Dom Sheed is doing an admirable Andrew Gaff impersonation, but the Magpies are a different animal in the middle.

Pendlebury is still somehow underrated, Steele Sidebottom is in the form of his life and Taylor Adams is coming off arguably the best game of his career. Throw in Adam Treloar and impressive winger Tom Phillips and you’ve got a powerful on-ball brigade. When you add in Brodie Grundy – the best around-the-ground ruckman since Dean Cox – things get a bit silly.

To say the Tigers gave Sidebottom a long leash a week ago is an understatement. The All-Australian did as he pleased to finish with 41 touches, including 35 uncontested possessions and 13 marks. He won’t get the same freedom today and can expect to have West Coast stopper Mark Hutchings breathing down his neck all afternoon. It’s a battle that could have a huge impact on the result.

The Magpies, too, could employ Levi Greenwood in a tagging role. West Coast don’t bat as deep around the ball since Gaff’s broke Andrew Brayshaw’s face, so if Greenwood can put the clamps on Shuey or Yeo, West Coast will find it tougher to get the ball to their dangerous forwards.

A sore subject
We saw last week just how hurtful a corkie can be as the best player in the competition hobbled around the MCG, so Eagles fans would be right to have their guard up about Jeremy McGovern spending so little time on the training track in the lead-up.

Behind Kennedy, McGovern is the Eagles’ best and most important player. His intercept marking is unparalleled and his one-on-one work elite. He’s the fulcrum of West Coast’s defence.

For the sake of the Eagles and the contest, here’s hoping he plays and looks something like his best.

Slow down and spread out
Collingwood were maniacal in their pressure and attack on the footy against the Tigers, but the most impressive part of their performance was their composure in traffic – Chris Mayne looked like Scott Pendlebury as he pirouetted along the boundary line and through congestion in defence before releasing a handball that set the Pies on their way.

(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Media/Getty Images)

That composure and patience meant Collingwood rarely bombed the ball blindly forward, which would have played right into the hands of the Tigers’ defenders. Combined with a dangerous collection of forwards with great chemistry, the Magpies could then spread out Richmond’s defence and pick them apart.

If they can manage the same patience and spread today, they’ll go a long way towards negating McGovern and kicking a winning score.

Heir Jordan
Jordan De Goey stamped his mark on last week’s preliminary final, looking every bit the Dustin Martin clone he’s hinted at becoming. He followed up his two goals in the qualifying final with three in the semi against GWS and four in the prelim. Could five be on the cards today?

With Sheppard out of action, Tom Cole will most likely get the first crack at the young star. Cole is an honest toiler but he doesn’t have the size or strength to match De Goey physically – few do – so he’ll need help from both his fellow defenders and the midfielders and forwards putting on pressure ahead of him. It’s a match-up Adam Simpson and his assistants will be keeping a very close eye on.

By the numbers
Collingwood were No.3 in the league for points from forward-half takeaways during the home-and-away season, just slightly behind the Tigers and Demons at 33.7 points a game. The Eagles weren’t so strong offensively, scoring 31.1 points a game (seventh) but they conceded just 21.1 points a game when they turned the ball over in their defensive half, which was second to Richmond.

With Shannon Hurn, Lewis Jetta and even McGovern setting things up from defence, the ball is usually in the hands of excellent kickers.

Verdict
West Coast finished second with 16 wins and a percentage of 121.4, Collingwood finished third with 15 wins and a percentage of 120.4. Their last meeting was a spectacular arm-wrestle. They’re evenly matched, but I think West Coast’s big forwards will be the difference.

West Coast by seven points.

Norm Smith Medal: Josh Kennedy

First goal: Travis Varcoe

That’s my grand final forecast. What’s yours?