2018 was an annus horribilis for St Kilda.
After winning 15 games across the 2013-15 seasons, the Saints won 23 matches in 2016-17 and were knocking on the door of finals both years. The resurgence seemed to be on, but 2018 showed that it was all built on rotting foundations.
A win against Brisbane in Round 1 was a false dawn, as St Kilda didn’t win another game until Round 13 – almost a full three months between celebratory drinks.
In between were ten losses and a draw, an average score of 64 and an average losing margin of 35 points. The game style was ugly, the skills atrocious.
It was midnight for St Kilda.
From that point on things got marginally better for the Saints, but they still finished 2018 with six losses in a row. Their fans have put up with much over the years, and are currently at a low ebb.
Let’s see what they have to look forward to this season.
St Kilda best 22
B: Jarryn Geary, Nathan Brown, Jimmy Webster
HB: Shane Savage, Jake Carlisle, Dylan Roberton
C: Jack Sinclair, Seb Ross, Dan Hannebery
HF: Blake Acres, Tim Membrey, Jade Gresham
F: Jack Billings, Paddy McCartin, Ben Long
Foll: Billy Longer, Jack Steele, Jack Steven
Int: Jack Newnes, Hunter Clark, Rowan Marshall, Nick Coffield
Em: David Armitage, Dan McKenzie, Luke Dunstan
Starting at the back, and we see a mix of handy footballers, with a couple that are a cut above that.
Nathan Brown is one of the most negating defenders around, and the hope would be that a more attacking option like Logan Austin forces Brown down to Sandringham by season’s end.
Jake Carlisle has possibly been a little bit underrated in his time at St Kilda, but at the same time he hasn’t gone on to the heights predicted during 2013 when he was 21 and looked like becoming a star of the competition at Essendon. The drugs saga happened, and he spent time playing forward where he was adequate enough.
Jarryn Geary is tough and hard but kicks like he’s got two wrong feet. Jimmy Webster is the opposite and took his game to a new level last year. Some players need to cross that 50-60 game mark before they truly believe they belong.
Shane Savage has a weapon for a right boot, and is one of the players expected to take full advantage of the new kick-in rules that allow more freedom for those taking the duties.
The Saints will welcome back Dylan Roberton from a heart scare – 2017 was his best season by far, and let’s not forget he made the All Australian 40. If he can recapture that form, he gives his side a much more stable air down back.
(AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield spent time in defence in their debut season, and showed enough to suggest they could be long term prospects. Clark has had a huge pre-season from all reports, and the Saints will be looking for his class to shine through the middle.
St Kilda’s midfield is workmanlike at best, with no match-winners among them.
Jack Steven is the best player there, even though his disposal can be sloppy. He can catch fire from time to time, and looks good with a burst of speed or a nice goal but seems to go in and out of games.
There were questions over his motivation at St Kilda last year, but he still won the best and fairest – his fourth, which says a bit about the Saints in his time there. Lenny Hayes only won three, for instance.
Seb Ross is an accumulator but not the most damaging. Jack Steele continues to improve and has become a very good two-way midfielder. Jack Sinclair could do with winning more of the ball, but uses it well when he gets the chance – for a St Kilda player anyway.
Dan Hannebery has been brought across on a long-term contract, and the wisdom of that decision is certainly up for debate. Already reported to have hamstring issues, his banged up body was there for all to see last year at the Swans. At times he was moving so slowly his shadow looked likely to overtake him.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Billy Longer is a lumberer in the ruck, and would likely get first crack at the position with Tom Hickey’s departure if not for injury – Lewis Pierce should now see games early in the season. Rowan Marshall is a far more athletic specimen and also has more versatility up forward if required.
Up forward, Jade Gresham has become the star of the show and one of the top few small forwards in the competition. At 21, he still has plenty more upside and started to spend more time in the middle in the latter stages of 2018. In regards to living up to potential, he has become the talent Jack Billings was hoped to be.
All eyes will be on Paddy McCartin as usual, and he certainly looks to strip fitter this pre-season. Tim Membrey took 61 marks inside 50 last season, the equal third most in the competition. But this was only converted into 34 goals and five goal assists, a pathetic return.
He had kicking woes early in the season, but the positive is that he kept wanting the ball.
There is room for Marshall as third tall and back-up ruck, unless he steals the pole position off Longer and Pierce.
Jack Lonie’s career was going nowhere but he finished last season strong as a goal-sneak and could build on this by keeping his spot in the team, but Ben Long probably has the inside running at this stage and mature-age recruit Matt Parker from the WAFL will also be eyeing off this role.
This is the sort of competition for spots that St Kilda has sorely lacked in recent times.
It is well and truly time for Blake Acres and Jack Billings to become the players their team needs them to be.
Acres is a difficult match-up through the middle and up forward, and has all the tools. If his career continues on the same trajectory, which is one of mediocre impact, he may find himself on the trade table to the Western Australian clubs.
Billings should be the classiest player on the list but needs to rid himself of lazy disposal – it’s his sixth year in the AFL already and the time for excuses is over.
Fans will want to see more of Josh Battle and he should get his chances, and there is a school of thought that suggests he could be a good swingman or even an old-fashioned utility. He’s clearly got the talent to make it at AFL level.
There are plenty of jobbers waiting in the wings as depth players, but none look likely to take the Saints to great heights.
St Kilda’s biggest problem last year was disposal, particularly by foot. Game plans and defensive set-ups get thrown into disarray when unforced turnovers occur, and teammates end up hopelessly out of position to defend them.
They then aren’t in place to pressure the opposition, which was a trademark under Alan Richardson in his first couple of years.
Even a ball that doesn’t go cleanly to a teammate allows opposition players to close gaps and create pressure, and what may have been a smooth transition to goal becomes a stoppage instead.
The Saints have changed the assistant coach set-up around Richardson, which should be a benefit, and the coach himself has received feedback that he was too negative on the players.
Gradually, more and more coaches are understanding that football is an instinctive game, and you’ll get the best out of players by letting them play to their strengths, not some robotic way a coach wants the game played on a whiteboard.
Brett Ratten has been brought in to be the architect of the game-plan, which should streamline St Kilda’s ball movement, and give the players more clarity out on the field.
This can only be a positive given Richardson’s lack of strategic blueprint – he has always had a reputation as a development coach, so needs a strong tactical mind alongside him.
Richardson has also removed himself from the AFL360 panel on Monday nights, which is good for viewers. Rarely did he offer any insight, and he has never been a voice of authority in the mould of Chris Scott, Paul Roos or Nathan Buckley. The way he talked in circles on the show has been reflected in the Saints play.
St Kilda has a friendly draw, being the only team to play Gold Coast, Carlton and Fremantle twice. That provides some good opportunities, but is offset by the fact most of these matches take place in the back two-thirds of the year.
After Gold Coast in Round 1, their next eight games are brutal, mostly playing teams that finished high up last year or are expected to this season.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Hopes are not high for the Saints in 2019, but they can prove themselves to be the best of the bottom four and maybe sneak higher still if things click together.
Prediction: 15th
Preview Series
15.St Kilda
16.Fremantle
17.Carlton
18.Gold Coast
Gee
Roar Rookie
The first up game against Gold Coast is a must win IMHO, it will set the tone for the whole year. That list is ordinary and take the fight out it with an early defeat against comparable opposition and the wooden spoon is coming back home. Great time to be a Saints fan who loves cricket :(
Jorge of Brisvegas
Roar Rookie
Macca, I think you are correct. Brisbane (after a very long time) definitely has the hype factor upon them from the fans and pundits. That does not automatically transfer into wins and finals(i.e. St Kilda 2017). However, it also does not mean they will not ascend. As a long term (pre Fitzroy merger) Brisbane supporter, I have only seen 1 period of sustained success albeit, that was pretty special. It is a lot easier to knock on the door of success than to walk through it. The main reason people in general have been talking up Brisbane is not just one thing. There are several key areas where their stocks look ready to rise. a) the stats. Stats can go up and down as we know but since July 2017, the Lions have really turned things around. So that is a trend across seasons that is continuing to go upwards. Also another curious stat, the previous two teams across the last 2 seasons who lost a lot of close games, learnt from that and increased their win /loss significantly ; Richmond & North Melbourne? b) the players. Unlike other sides that have had new recruits from top 5 draft picks almost all of Brisbane’s have become skilled and dangerous in the AFL or been moved on(see Schache). And even allowing for the highly unusual circumstances of D. Beams leaving (which will hurt the Lions initially a little) they are attracting real quality players to their club; back to back B&F winner L. Neale, M. Adams (if he can get fit for a season could be in AA conversation) and the remarkable case of Jarryd Lyons. One of the best ball winners in GC’s list was traded in a heart beat. If you offered any club in the league to swap a true A grade 29 yr old mid for another true A grade 25 year old mid and another 25yr old maybe B / B+ mid, done deal. So the Beams vs Beale /Lyons swap is a good one. Brisbane also are removing list cloggers approprIately and giving close calls a chance on rookie lists (R. Bastinac) The core of their playing group is getting younger (losing Beams then Hodge next year). c) coaching. From a long run up Chris Fagan is spoken about universally as being a good character, knows success and brings people with him and around him. His results with old and new players are consistent and he invokes respect. His low profile assistants remain that and all you hear about is team. d) belief. One of the intangibles here but important. The Lions have not been having parties or been lauding up big wins. Their position and satisfaction appears transient, focussed on future success. Their game style is sound and improving and challenges most teams. They are earning respect not acting as if they should receive it. Robertson got publically censured for daring to put down the GC last year. These 4 areas do not guarantee future success. And your point about a low injury rate was a valid one. Previously, the Lions has shocking injury concerns ( Beams, Christensen, Clarke , Frost) although seeing Charlie Cameron back this season will be fantastic. Most teams need reasonable injury stats and some luck to get ahead (Collingwood 2018 excluded) and so will be the case in 2019. But if injuries are kept to a minimum, and a couple of close games against good teams go their way, then watch out for Brisbane because (it may NOT be in 2019 but) .............. they are coming.
Aus in Engerland
Guest
If that best 22 was a colour, it would be beige. No-one really stinks it up, but there's no-one there that I would really want at my club either. Saints are really behind the eight ball before they even start. They don't have the history, culture of success or belief as a club that others do. They struggle to develop players. Their facilities are second rate (not quite a couple of weight machines and a massage bench in a tin shed, but you get the idea) when compared to clubs like Ess and Coll and WC and Freo and... You can equalize all you like but when you continually struggle to bring on those early draft picks you will remain at the wrong end of the ladder. Finals a distant dream.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I just attempted to answer your question, that was all. Who is saying we are near certainties? I certainly am not. I said we were a 20% chance of playing finals last week.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Just FWIW based on Cam's best 22 for the blues the total number of games played for carlton in the 2018 year by that 22 was 221, or an average of just of 10 games per player.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I would have thought so. Roberton has a 60 metre boot.
Blake Standfield
Roar Guru
It’s the Ross Lyon effect. We’re seeing it with Freo now.
Macca
Roar Rookie
That makes them better in 2018, it doesn't automatically translate into being better in 2019. I have said a few times I like the list that the Lions are building but the 2018 off season didn't see them make real net gains while Freo added a big piece of the puzzle in Hogan and Lobb, the Saints get Roberton back and added Hannebery (plus possibly King) and the Blues got McGovern & Setterfield plus Walsh. I also think the Lions got harder double up teams than at least some of the other bottom 6 sides. But the possibly the biggest thing is in 2018 the Lions had the best run with injury of all bottom 6 sides. Now I am not saying they won't make it out of the bottom 6, there quality young players could have a very good season, I just don't think they are the near certainties the general consensus seems to have them.
Sausages
Guest
I read the whole thing, that’s how I stumbled across your assessment of the facilities. Brisbane have some of the best youth in the league coming through and hands down the worst facilities. I fail to see the connection. Developing youth is the role of the staff there, and St Kilda haven’t done that wel for some years, probably since Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Ball, Goddard, Montagna et al. came through. Your slap about the facilities is just lazy.
anon
Roar Pro
Richardson just isn't one of the best 18 minds in the game. Simple as that. Rubbish list, but they would struggle to make the 8 with Richmond's list. We've reached this strange period where we give obviously poor coaches multiple years to destroy culture, destroy lists, destroy careers
Matt M
Guest
Hard to disagree with most of this - though I'm surprised Josh Bruce hasn't copped a mention at all. He'd be in the team before McCartin for mine. I think we all have to wonder at McCartin's future with King being taken with our first pick last draft. Membrey is a lock, Bruce is there and Marshall and Battle are both arguably showing more upside than Paddy. Make or break year for him this year. What I like about us at the moment: - Our back-line looks as solid on paper to begin the season as it has for years. - The nucleus of a dangerous forward-line is there. Membrey is dependable, Gresham is the magic man and I'm very high on young Ben Long. - It's a big if but IF Hannerbury gets his body right then that will be a huge weight of Jack Steven and Seb Ross' shoulders. Steele and Hunter looking to step up too. - I'm bullish about our off-season changes to personnel. Did they go far enough? We'll see. What I don't like: The less said the better - it's been a long few years as a Saints supporter. I think a huge part of last year's collapse was as much the mental/morale side as anything else. The impact of losing in round 2 to North Melbourne can't be understated. It was a huge coup for the club to get the Good Friday night match and we failed on the big stage against a team widely tipped as spoon contenders in the pre-season when we were expected to be making finals. It was a massive blow to the players psyche and they never really recovered. Your point about encouraging players to play on instinct and with freedom is well made and I agree. When we go out there with confidence and don't think too much we can be electric. The inverse of that has been plain to see - our goal kicking woes over the last couple of years case and point. On instinct, Steven just gets the ball, tucks it under his arm and goes for a run. When Billings doesn't think about his kicking, he weights the most perfect passes I could cry. When Gresham...look - Gresham just makes the magic happen and I'll not hear a word otherwise. Our season opener against the Gold Coast could be a hiding to nothing but it could also be a great opportunity to absolutely flog a team and start the season on a high. I feel like if the Saints get some momentum through the first half of the season they'll be on their way. I have us on 8-9 wins for the season...if only because of such a favorable draw.
berrlins
Roar Pro
Why would you have the Saints above Freo? At best St Kilda are an average team, their best players are miserably average and their coach does not inspire confidence that he can utilize his average side to the best of their abilities (which is still average). Freo have a pretty average coach as well at the moment but they have the talent that the Saints don't. I just can't see the Saints doing much for awhile even with a change of coach.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Our percentage in 2018 might have had something to do with it. We had a percentage of 89, Dogs Freo Saints 75-77, Suns & Carlton 59.
Cat
Roar Guru
I'd also add that the Saints have chronically under spent in their scouting, recruiting and development football departments. It shows.
Macca
Roar Rookie
My tip is it won't be the Lions, even though I struggle to see exactly why everyone is so sure they are significantly better than the rest of the bottom 6.
TomC
Roar Guru
I suppose I should have said their facilities 'were' very poor, but given the context of player development I think it should have been clear I meant their previous facilities at Linen House. I assume you didn't bother to read the whole passage in your haste to be needlessly unpleasant.
Sausages
Guest
A fair write up Cam. The Saints are coming from a long way back it seems, and it is no fault but their own. Player development hasn’t been at the level required and unless there is a complete turnaround on 2018 it looks likely that the Saints will be another major player at the pointy end of the draft come November. I like the acquisition of Ratten - he will bring a wealth of knowledge from his days at Hawthorn and knows how to help drive success. Some mature aged recruits will get their chance early, Parker, Hind and Young amongst them. If Hunter Clark can become the player he was drafted to be and Gresham steps up again there could be some cause for optimism by the time Max King gets on the park for future years. Hopefully Billings finally pieces together a consistent season and Carlisle will need to be a colossus down back. If we finish out of the bottom 4/5 it’s certainly a win.
Sausages
Guest
Ignorant comment. Redevelopment at Moorabbin means facilities are anything but poor. Please do a bit of research before such throwaway lines.
Cameron Rose
Expert
One of those three up tomorrow, yes.
Brian
Guest
Can't argue with the bottom 4. Brisbane, Dogs or maybe North next? All the 14 left would be hopeful of making the 8.