Last year saw a gaping chasm between the top 12 teams in the competition and the bottom six. But can the Lions break away from the bottom in 2019?
Adelaide finished 12th with 12 wins and a percentage of 104.1. The Western Bulldogs finished 13th with eight wins and a percentage of 77.3. But despite only five wins in 2018, there is a case to be made that Brisbane were the best of the dregs.
The Lions had a percentage of 89.1, far superior to the next-best Bulldogs, which was an indication of their overall competitiveness compared to their rivals in the dungeon. They averaged 83 points per game, which was more than sides like Sydney and Port Adelaide, and almost two goals clear of the next best bottom-six team St Kilda.
Interstate wins are a big fillip for a side trying to make their way up the ladder, and Brisbane had victories in Perth over Fremantle and in Tasmania against Hawthorn in the second half of the year, to signify real progress. They also lost to Collingwood, North, Port and Adelaide by single-figure margins, which they will have learned much from.
Can the Lions now break free of the bottom six?
Brisbane Lions Best 22
B: Darcy Gardiner, Marcus Adams, Alex Witherden
HB: Luke Hodge, Harris Andrews, Daniel Rich
C: Tom Cutler, Lachie Neale, Charlie Cameron
HF: Cam Rayner, Eric Hipwood, Mitch Robinson
F: Lewis Taylor, Daniel McStay, Allen Christensen
Foll: Stefan Martin, Jarryd Lyons, Dayne Zorko
Int: Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry, Josh Walker, Lincoln McCarthy
Em: Ryan Lester, Oscar McInerney, Nick Robertson
One of the biggest talking points in the trade wars that defined the 2018 post-season involved Brisbane losing Dayne Beams back to Collingwood, but gaining Lachie Neale from Fremantle. Both players are in the conversation for top 25-30 in the competition, so the Lions were losing a gun but gaining one too.
(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
But they also gained Jarryd Lyons from Gold Coast, Marcus Adams from the Bulldogs and Lincoln McCarthy from Geelong, a trio that could prove to be a nice little haul that will add some bite to each area of the ground.
Beams averaged 11 contested possessions, 5.6 clearances and three tackles a game last year. Neale and Lyons combined averaged 29, 14 and 10 in those categories. They are significant figures who allow Dayne Zorko to play a more dynamic outside role through the midfield and forward of centre.
Stef Martin does a lot of clearance and contested work as a ruckman, as well as linking effectively across the ground. Charlie Cameron can hopefully get involved more in the middle, as he possesses special qualities that others do not. Mitch Robinson is the wrecking ball that can shut down opponents if required, or gleefully work them over.
Most exciting for Brisbane fans is the thought of a second pre-season under the belt of Cameron Rayner and what he might be capable of as he takes more steps forward in his AFL evolution. We saw some spectacular highlights last year, and need to prepare room in our scrapbooks for more.
And let’s not forget two 21-year-olds Hugh McCluggage and Jarrod Berry, both first-round draft picks, entering their third seasons. Both have shown they have what it takes to be an integral part of a successful midfield, and will also benefit from more experienced players like Neale and Lyons being added to the mix.
Harris Andrews was rated the third-best key defender in the competition in the Roar Top 50, behind two superstars in Alex Rance and Jeremy McGovern, and is becoming more of an offensive weapon as each season passes. Still only 22 himself, there has been talk of trialing him up forward during the pre-season.
Marcus Adams is one of the most imposing specimens in the AFL and just needs to stay fit to prove his worth, but this is easier said than done.
Luke Hodge provided effective service in his first year at the Gabba, and no doubt an abundance of leadership and education. He can’t run out of sight on a dark night these days, but is still a canny positioner and user.
Darcy Gardiner, fourth in the 2018 best and fairest, can play tall or small and has license to create in the back half, although Daniel Rich and Alex Witherden are the leaders in this regard.
The new rule changes have been made to promote more direct play, which suit both Rich and Witherden. Opposition zones will need to be set far and wide when Rich has the ball in hand for a kick out, which should allow him to pierce shorter kicks into gaps to open the field up beyond them.
Up forward is where Brisbane look a little weak, even though we have already noted they were ranked 11th in points scored last year.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
People want Eric Hipwood to make outlandish progression, but he showed steady improvement in 2018 compared to the year before, and can be expected to do so again. His second half of the season was better than his first, which might suggest a quantum leap is coming. His athletic instinct will be a pleasure to watch.
Daniel McStay went forward again in 2018, and has a good pair of hands when his confidence is up. Hipwood is 21, McStay 23. Plenty of room for growth.
Allen Christensen played a full season after 21 months off the AFL scene. It’s fair to say we’ve seen his best now, but he’s still an effective player.
Lewis Taylor plays his role in the forward third or half of the ground. Lincoln McCarthy might surprise a few who haven’t seen much of him – he’s a very clean footballer, a natural ball-handler, creative and clever.
Brisbane’s suite of double-up matches doesn’t look the hardest on paper. They handily beat Hawthorn both times they met last year, and get another two chances this season.
The Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast are also on the agenda, all three picked as bottom-six candidates in this preview series.
North Melbourne is the other club the Lions play twice, a team they could easily have beaten in Round 20 last year.
Chris Fagan has Brisbane playing a direct and attacking brand of football, which may well be rewarded this season, given some of the rule changes.
Maturity and experience are being gained at the same time as the still young list develops, so week-in, week-out consistency can’t be expected.
The Lions showed last year that they are on the right track, and it’s reasonable to think they will break clear of the bottom six this season.
Prediction: 11th
Preview Series
11. Brisbane
12. Hawthorn
13. Port Adelaide
14. Western Bulldogs
15. St Kilda
16. Fremantle
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast
TCrowley
Guest
First time commenter and a little late to the party. Lions fan. Great analysis, Cameron! My starting 22 looks similar, but with a couple of differences. First, I reckon Mathieson has earned a round one spot. Showed signs of maturity last year and fits nicely on a wing. Seems to be working as hard as anyone at the club. I suspect he’ll squeeze out Cutler for the first few rounds, who seems to fall in and out of favour with the coaches even though I’m a big fan of his. The second name I think rates a mention is Zac Bailey. He showed plenty in his first season last year. Most exciting is his pace, and I suspect (not the first to say this) that we’ll see more of him across half back, where he can provide that run and carry that Rich, Witherden and Hodge lack. I agree with the assessment of most that anywhere in the 10th-13th range would be a solid season. I think this year will really be about bedding down the core side that’s going to take us to finals in the next couple of years. In that sense I think it’s a make or break year for a cluster of players who have been serviceable for a while but have fallen down the batting order as elite talent has arrived through the draft and through trades. Players like Taylor, Robertson, Cutler, Mathieson, Christensen and McStay will be battling it out for a dwindling number of spots (injuries notwithstanding). Some might rise to the occasion, but others are going to have to follow the trajectory of Lester, Walker and Bastinac last year and become solid depth players rather than certain starters. That can only be seen as a healthy thing, especially with young guys (Starcevich, Ely Smith, maybe Skinner now he’s fit) pushing for game time too. The ruck battle is also an interesting one. I reckon it’d be unthinkable to play Archie ahead of Stef - Stef’s ability to rack up possessions in addition to his ruckwork is what sets him apart - but Archie’s talent is undeniable. The disinterested footy fan in me is shocked he hasn’t been fielding offers from rival clubs. I’d have thought St Kilda, Geelong, Sydney, GWS or the Dogs would give their left arm to get him, and he’d certainly get more game time at any of those clubs. But the selfish fan in me is stoked we’ve got him in reserve for life after Stef. Mind you, though, Stef said in an interview late last year that he was as fit as ever and felt like he had another five years in him. So who knows?
Mick_Lions
Roar Pro
McCluggage overrated??? Have you watched him in heavy traffic?? He’s like Joey John’s. Runs with the ball held in both hands, steps off both feet and delivers pin point passes. Bob’s up for a goal regularly too. He’s certainly not in the same league as Cripps but nor was he ever compared to him. Let’s see where he sits at seasons end huh?
Larry1950
Guest
When you're a rebuilding side a few key injuries can hurt more than multiple ones at the established clubs. I thought having Andrews knocked cold & miss games then play a bit tentative on return really hurt them in defence & that might have been a couple of changed results because he's a class defender. Losing Cameron for the latter part of the season also hurt them because he just seemed to be hitting his straps at his new club. Everyone needs a trouble free season when they're trying to climb out of the also rans group. I'd hazard a guess they're satisfied they didn't throw the farm at Schache to try to build their attacking group.
nicholas wilton
Guest
hmmm, so far Brisbane have been belted by Gold Coast and troubled by Box Hill. Not filling me with confidence. Forget the inclusion of Neale, he is not half the player Beams is. It is what he does when he gets the ball that makes him just so much better than either Zorko or Neale. The Scottish suit-case (McLuggage) is horribly over-rated, and surely the jury is still out on Berry and Hipwood. Potential becomes a dirty word very quickly in the World of professional sport. Would love to see them do well, but they are most certainly destined for another stint in the bottom six, and probably bottom four, this year.
Macca
Roar Rookie
I don't think the blues injuries will have any long term impact on their development (especially with Russell coming in) but it certainly impacted last year. On Freo getting more out f the kids I think that is a lot down to perception, Dow and O'brien were statistically very similar to Brayshaw and Cerra.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Thanks for the right up Cam. For me I think we are more in the 13-14 region. I can't see us finishing above either Hawks or Port and really think we will be neck and neck with Freo. I'm still cautious about our defensive 50! I'm not convinced Adams is really going to give us much. McCarthy looks bloody good, but clearly ability has never been the problem there considering how long Cats kept him on their list. I'm also a little worried by Cameron's recent injury history. It's becoming too often and makes me quite uncomfortable because I actually think he has the ability to be our best player. We need our Big Forwards to find some consistency. I'm looking at McStay here. Hippy we are just going to have be patient with. But I am quite grateful for the fact we are now getting ourselves in the talk of significant improvement. It show's we've turned the tide. Lets just hope we can take that next step. For me 7-8 wins is probably par, 9-10 wins a good year & 11-12 wins Possible Finals is Fairytale stuff.
TomC
Roar Guru
Yeah, I think the sobering reality is that Carlton's injury run last year has delayed their development progress in a way they couldn't control. Arguably Freo as well, but to me it looked like they got a bit more out of the kids that came into the team than the Blues did.
George13
Guest
It’s funny how many people here jumped on Lions bandwagon here. For sure they played way more attractive footy last year than in the past and made Hawthorn their bunny but this is the team that was in QClash 2 10 min from swapping places with Suns on a ladder! In a game where Suns were missing 10 best 22 while Lions were missing 2. On top of that Lions had a unbelievable run with injuries, basically they played the best team half season, after that were missing 1-2 best 22 (Cameron, Andrews). I believe Lions played the same 19 players in 18 games or similar to that. Personally I wish they put more games into young players the last year. It is reasonable to predict that Lions will have more injuries this year. Already Martin has heel issue, Adams knee tendinitis, Gardner did PCL, Christensen ankle. Do Lions have depths? I don’t think so. Many young players played no or limited number of games. Defence – very slow. Who will take advantage of new kick-in rules? Hodge on last leg, Gardner and Adams questionable for round 1. Rich is not fast and never fulfilled his potential. I do hope they play Bailey, Christensen or Cox there otherwise Eagles small forwards in round 1 will kill them. Midfield – no doubt Neale is a great acquisition. But let’s be honest, for next 1-2 years Beams is still a better player. Yes, people go crazy about Lyons but while he is a nice fit for Lions, he is not a savier and has plenty of deficiencies including defensive running, and lack of speed. Similar to Zorko he can’t also cope when tagged. Let’s hope Suns letting him go will motivate him. Forward – it seems only Fagan likes Hipwood, McStay, Big O there. Hipwood will probably never be a power forward as he is still as lanky as he was when drafted. McStay still teases fans, still can’t kick straight. And while I like Big O, his input forward is limited, he is a ruckman first. No doubt Lions have some great young players, McCluggage, Berry, Rainer, Witherden, Andrews, Hipwood, Bailey. To expect that all of them will elevate their games and thus push Lions into finals contention is not realistic. Round 1 will be telling. A win could set up Lions season. If they lose they could easily end up starting the season with 4 losses and only 1 win. Prediction: Hit with injuries – bottom 3. Having no injuries like last year – 10-12 on the ladder.
Larry1950
Guest
Interesting take on the Lions potential upswing but just a few cautious observations from a hopeful fan. To me, Daniel Rich is a lazy player who is content in his comfort zone, just doing enough to retain his spot. Cameron must play 18-20 games or they're in some trouble while those second & third year guys have to make the quantum leap to stop the Lions from plateauing. Hodge will probably be found wanting against the better, smarter sides as he slows down even more so this is the season where he gets rested for more games & picked against specific opponents when suited. His on field coaching presence will still be extremely vital.
Raimond
Roar Guru
Easily the most exciting team from outside the 8. I have them sneaking into the finals this season, but they could be a juggernaut by around 2021.
Raimond
Roar Guru
The Lions are further ahead than Carlton, but Carlton's stockpiling of high-end draft talent should make other clubs nervous.
Macca
Roar Rookie
PaulD- just noticed of the 5 posts you have on this thread about your team you mention me more than you do your team. Even the 1 post that actually goes into any depth about your team still spends the majority of the first paragraph discussing me. Perhaps if you want this thread to discuss the Lions you could lead by example.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Sportsfan – you may be right but it takes a lot of natural improvement from the Lions to offset the benefits teams like the blues and the dockers will get from players that were unavailable in 2018.
Dean
Guest
Hawks were missing more than a few Cameron. Not sure how much you can take out of the game for the Lions when they were basically playing against Box Hill. I think that game was a better indication of where Hawthorns young brigade is in terms of development rather than where the Lions are at. As a hawks supporter l was more than happy with some of the young guys and don't see the future as bleak as some. I think you are about right with Brisbane, they are headed in the right direction and will be around that mark. Won't be surprised if they move a couple of spots either way.
Macca
Roar Rookie
You seem confused, the post above only references the Lions. If you stopped playing the man we could discuss my views on them.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Ha! Succinctly put, and perfectly shut down the dumb media speculation.
Mick_Lions
Roar Pro
I don't see Taylor as having any upside. He'd have to take a big step up in not turning it over to warrant a long term future. Great vision but tries to be cute with it often hitting opponents lace out. Witherden and McCluggage are much better ball users. Rayner and Cameron too. So too is McCarthy from the 1 game I've seen. Depth player for mine
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/former-fremantle-midfielder-lachie-neale-defends-comments-made-following-brisbane-pre-season-game-ng-b881123962z
Mick_Lions
Roar Pro
I'm absolutely certain Stef will get plenty of games. He will probably miss round 1 as he comes back from a lay off. Stef's weakness tho is centre bounces. He's not overly tall nor can he jump. Archie can do both so will see quite a few games this season to advance his learning. He's been playing all the intraclubs as no1 and has built a rapport with Neale and Lions so is good to go.
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
Neale and Mundy No ego's there ! Fyfe ?? was not at the wedding....More porky pies from Don Freo....... Lyon was not in the bridal party either......