North Melbourne were a surprise packet of season 2018, rising above doom and gloom predictions to be in the finals hunt all year.
The Kangaroos held a position in the eight for the first half of the season, dropping out after the bye rounds and never quite able to squeeze back in. After being widely seen as a bottom four certainty and even likely wooden spoon winner, it could only be hailed as a successful year.
Not satisfied with their rise, North was an active player in the trade and free agency period. They lured four 100 game players to their club, with Jarrad Waite a significant departure due to retirement, along with Ryan Clarke who shifted to Sydney.
Let’s see how these new faces fit into the side.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
B: S.Wright S.Thompson M.Daw
HB: J.Macmillan R.Tarrant M.Williams
C: T.Dumont B.Cunnington J.Polec
HF: J.Simpkin M.Wood A.Hall
F: J.Ziebell B.Brown S.Atley
Foll: T.Goldstein S.Higgins J.Anderson
Int: B.Jacobs P.Ahern J.Pittard L.McDonald
Em: D.Tyson K.Turner N.Hrovat
North Melbourne was rock solid in defence last year, at least in terms of personnel, which is an important platform for any consistent side.
Key defenders Robbie Tarrant and Scott Thompson only missed one game between them. Jamie Macmillan, Marley Williams and Luke McDonald played all 22, while Sam Wright didn’t miss a match once he was brought into the side in Round 7, almost two years after he had last played at senior level.
Tarrant and Thompson have been working in tandem for a long time, always in the second tier when conversation turns to best key backmen in the game. Tarrant, in particular, has had an outstanding three or four years.
Majak Daw found himself settled in defence by the end of 2018, but has been battling personal problems in the off-season and where his football career sits is in question. Ed Vickers-Willis and Ben McKay may get an opportunity as the third talls down back in his absence.
Majak Daw in action for the Kanagroos. (AAP Image/Hamish Blair)
The Roos often weren’t a high possession team, even in wins, so the rebounding players don’t win a heap of ball. Ryan Clarke was the highest possession runner from defence, but is now in Sydney. Jasper Pittard has been procured from Port to replace him but North fans must be warned – Pittard is one of the worst decision-makers in the AFL and can cause some groans among supporters when he tries to hit a target that isn’t on, or shanks the kick due to running too fast at the point of impact.
Up forward, Ben Brown is the clear focal point, the only player in the league to kick more than 60 goals in each of the last two seasons. We know he likes to lead fast and straight, is hard to stop on the lead, and is one of the best set shots in the comp.
The second key forward role will be held by a younger player, if Brad Scott wants to partner Ben Brown in that way. Nick Larkey is now in his third year at North, and kicked over 40 goals in the VFL last year – he looked the part in the JLT hit out against St Kilda on Saturday, so will surely add to his two senior games from 2017. Some say he moves like a young Drew Petrie, and even has the honour of wearing the number 20.
If the Roos go a bit smaller, hopes are high for the ever-injured Mason Wood as a lead-up player, and one good sign is that the amount of games he plays in each season has increased in each of the last four years. Wood shows flashes of brilliance in five or ten minute periods, possibly even a quarter, but frustrates with a lack of consistency.
Jack Ziebell played as an almost permanent forward last year, and despite being medium-size is used as a marking target. He’s a poor man’s Dustin Martin inside 50, which is no knock, strong in a contested one-on-one situation. He was never a big ball-winner in the midfield, so his best position appears to have been discovered.
HOBART, AUSTRALIA – JULY 29: Jack Ziebell of the Kangaroos celebrates (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Moving Shaun Atley into a small forward role was a winner in 2018, and he’ll be looking to hit the scoreboard even more this time around. Jy Simpkin will continue to be there, while trying to gain more midfield time. He’s a talent.
Aaron Hall will play either half-forward or as a forward-pushing midfielder. He has great attributes – he can find the footy, carry it, use it, evade opponents, kick goals. He’s not a naturally defensive-minded player, but the Roos have others for that. Let’s focus on what he’s good at.
Ben Cunnington will lead the midfield once again and loves the contest so much it’s always a surprise to find that he wins any uncontested possessions at all. He’s one of the underrated quiet achievers of the football world.
Jed Anderson emerged as a surprise hard nut inside the contest in 2018, another tick for the North coaching staff. Paul Ahern had an impact when he finally overcame his injuries and got on the park. Ben Jacobs is still one of the best taggers in the competition when he takes the field, but has played only 20 matches in the last three years.
Shaun Higgins is the jet, one that gets better with age. All class, he has often had to carry a heavy load as the lone classy player in a midfield of workhorses.
The list management team went hard in seeking running support for Higgins, and we’ve discussed Polec and Hall already. But Jared Polec is the ace in the pack from the off-season, and will slot straight onto a wing.
Polec took his game to another level last season, registering the best returns of his career. To then take the money and run, off to his third club, does bring about its own pressure.
Trent Dumont is highly respected within Arden St, but most non-North supporters could sit next to him on a train and not know who he was. He has started to believe he belongs, and could take another step up again.
Teenager Luke Davies-Uniacke didn’t look comfortable at AFL level last year despite coming in with high hopes, but has had a massive summer on the track from all reports, and could slot straight back in. Tarryn Thomas has been dominating juniors for years down in Tasmania, and has been on North’s radar during that time. Expectations might be unrealistically high.
Todd Goldstein had another good year in the ruck, really hitting his straps in the second half of the season. With Braydon Pruess defecting to Melbourne, ex-Bulldog Tom Campbell has been brought in as back-up.
Rarely has there been a glaring list management hole that has been so decisively addressed in an off-season. More run was needed, and bang, in come Polec, Hall, Pittard. With a nice blend of experience, youth, inside and outside runners, draftees and imports, the Roos are putting together a complementary mix.
North only have 26 players on their list to have played more than 30 games, and 19 players with 15 games or less. They don’t have a lot of exposed depth to rely on.
Jared Polec during his time with the Power. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
In fact, they used only 31 players last year, the least of any club. They had a remarkable 12 players play every game, with another three playing 20 or more. This can’t be ignored as a contributing factor to their unexpected rise up the ladder. Chances are their depth will get more tested this season.
North’s best team is good enough to contend for finals, as they did last year. The question will be how they go when injuries do hit to key players, particularly if Brown, Goldstein, Tarrant or Higgins go down for any length of time.
The Kangaroos are to be applauded for their aggressive list management. They’ve given themselves a chance to be thereabouts again.
Prediction: ninth
Preview series
9. North Melbourne
10. Sydney
11. Brisbane
12. Hawthorn
13. Port Adelaide
14. Western Bulldogs
15. St Kilda
16. Fremantle
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast
Pelican
Roar Rookie
Melbourne have been in this position many times before and then slipped back into the mire. At this point they have not done anything. Very early to be counting chickens.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
The old ten year plan huh Rob?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Personally Don I would take De Goey over Ben Brown. We have only had glimpses of what De Goey can do in the middle when he pinch hits but it adds a significant assett to Brown who is a one trick pony.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Certainly flying over my head! Good player, though.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Brad Scott is very bolshy this year saying "don't underrate us" (please, please underrate us!). I interpreted him as saying top 8 for sure with a hint of top 4. I'm very biased and still rate North's 1972 team, 1 W 21 L, as incredibly unlucky. With Daw in I would have had them as certainties and with him out they will merely have to fight a bit.
IAP
Guest
It's old but it's not as tired as the old "injury" line.
Gordon P Smith
Roar Guru
My prayers go to Majak Daw, and the family and friends around him supporting him. The rest of the team's issues are secondary to me right now. (But ninth is close to where I have the 'Roos right now, too.)
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Vickers Wellington Bomber.
Stephen
Guest
That's a considered writeup but I think some of your assumptions are based more on common footy tropes than reality. To the assertion that mature players won't improve, I'd offer Shaun Higgins, Majak Daw, Jed Anderson and Trent Dumont in 2018. You're also assuming that the experienced recruits will be the exact same players that they were at their former clubs but North's recent free agent acquisitions have mostly improved as players. Pittard's decision making and Hall's defense could improve under a different game plan (or not). Both are talented players on the verge of the AA team a couple of years ago. Paul Ahern also has plenty of scope to improve. He may be 22 but has only played a handful of (impressive) AFL games in his debut season and appears to be much fitter this year. A midfield that was previously shallow is looking a lot deeper. Hard to predict how they'll go. A lot will depend on the amount of improvement across the board, whether Larkey or Wood can hold down a key forward post, how the experienced recruits jell with the team and how they go with injuries but the doomsayers should refer to David King's article rating Carlton's list better than Collingwood's last year.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
The new Duke?
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Ah! The old "easy draw" line.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't be going "marquee" with De Goey yet. Ben Brown is well ahead of him. Paul Ahern, if he stays fit, is every bit as good as De Goey...but don't get me wrong...De Goey is really good. North is ok but they will finish quite a few games below Freo. 9th, however, is around North's mark.
Shiney McShine
Guest
I reckon that I would know Dumont if I sat next to him on a train...
Munro Mike
Roar Rookie
#John Well - part of the long term strategy has been getting Arden St back up to VFL/AFLW standard. That's starting this year - Sat June 1st a big day with the Melb Uni women first up hosting Richmond women, followed by the VFL game North vs Richmond.....2pm start on a Saturday afternoon at Arden St........ahhhhh the nostalgia!!! Tasmania was never on the radar in the first place - Ballarat was until the then state Labor Govt was voted out (Brumby). North got an offer to take games to Hobart. I guess along with Hawthorn - either this goes on and on and on - or - Tassie gets a stand alone side and North and Hawks are no longer required in the market. However - that will be a slow burn - step one is having Tassie back this year in the rebooted 'NAB League'. So long term?? Perhaps more medium term re Tassie and probably we all hope that within 20 years Tassie are launching a strong argument to go it alone in the AFL ...... and we morph along with perhaps a 3rd WA side or an NZ-Pacific/PNG side or whatever - and become a 2 conference 20 team comp.........okay, I'll stop there hey!!
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Leading comment for 2018 IMO by Paul D. Downlow 2018 comment award leader is still Aligee " I don't rate Buckley at all" (as a coach, after leading his side to a kick off the flag last season)
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Not sure about May. He is no Jeremy McGovern.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Robin Nahas the spark of Richmond's 2017 flag, now that is a new one. I did hear something similar about Matt White when he went from the Tigers to Port - he was the best time trialler at Richmond, but was only mid-pack at the Power.
Paul D
Roar Guru
What are you saying? North should go out and let Geelong rack up 233 points against them at Kardinia, that they should go out and have their own supporters screaming abuse at them, that they should beg for assistance from AFL and humble and humiliate themselves? Just because those years are behind the Dees now doesn't mean they didn't happen. I wouldn't be recommending Melbourne's renewal process to anyone, it's like saying how neatly laid out German cities are since 1945 - easy to go up from scorched earth and ruins
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Was interesting. He's a good honest player at this point. He spent a lot of time in defence. Sydney are keen to give him a crack in the middle. Perhaps it was mutual?
TomC
Roar Guru
Ninth seems at the very highest point that you could realistically predict for North, and I’d suggest the low point of their range is pushing down toward the bottom four. In terms of reaching that very highest point, almost everything you can conceive of to allow that to happen happened in 2018. They played four of last year’s bottom six twice and none of the top four, they had probably the league’s best run with injuries, and they had most of their best players at their best form over the whole season. Some of this is down to good management – and I have a lot of regard for Brad Scott – but a lot of it just can’t be replicated. One striking stat is that North had 12 players who appeared in every single game last year. I haven’t checked every team but I think most sides had around 6-8. Poor old Western Bulldogs had 2. There’s just no way those disparities will continue. They wanted to and did field a consistent lineup throughout 2018, and they got the benefits on the field. But the upshot is that they didn’t give the same exposure to the youth on their list. It was noted at the beginning of the season that they had the league’s second youngest squad, but in round 23 they fielded the league’s second oldest team. It’s great that they got improved seasons from Atley, Anderson, McDonald, Dumont, but they’re 26, 25, 24 and 23. Even Ahern is 22. It’s not likely that group has much more to show than what they’ve shown already. Majak Daw might have finally locked down a place in the backline, but he turns 28 in four days. These players are finally where they should have been three to four years ago, but that doesn’t mean they’ll keep improving. In fact mature players coming off a career best season are just as likely to revert back to the mean. This isn’t to say they don’t have some good youngsters – Simpkin has room to grow, Davies-Uniacke and Mckay are highly regarded – but they have less of them than most. The counter to all of that is the recruitment of Polec, who instantly improves that first 22, and Tyson, Hall, and Pittard, who shield them from depth risks a little. No doubt, Polec is a great acquisition. And as their best player Higgins turns 31 and possibly needs to be managed he’ll be a big help. Expectations should be low for the others. On balance unless they continue this excellent run of luck there are likely to be more factors pushing them down than up. And possibly quite a long way down. After the first nine or ten players most of their best team have pretty shallow formlines. Even without injuries, some of them going to drift out of form again and will need to be replaced off the bottom of the list, in which they aren’t really flagging a lot of faith if they’re recruiting Tyson etc. That’s not just a loss of on field quality but also they lose the benefit of that extraordinary team consistency they had last year. Like I said, I really do have a lot of faith in Scott and the Roos management. But I think one surprisingly strong season has covered up a lot of list management issues that have been building over the years. It might be that they can keep papering over the cracks in the short term but my suspicion is that 2018 was the high point.