Jhye Richardson and Ashton Turner look likely to be left out of Australia’s 15-man World Cup squad.
Australia do not have any more matches prior to unveiling their World Cup squad on April 23, before a training camp in Brisbane in early May, which will include warm-up matches against New Zealand.
A host of previously fringe ODI players made strong cases to be picked for that tournament as the Aussies won eight matches on the trot in the UAE and India over the past month.
But while Richardson and Turner look at home in limited overs internationals, they appear set to miss out due to a logjam of other players.
This is the 15 players my gut tells me will be selected, based on recent media interviews with Australian coach Justin Langer and informed by the manner in which the selectors have stuck with certain players over the past few months.
1. Aaron Finch
2. David Warner
3. Usman Khawaja
4. Steve Smith
5. Shaun Marsh
6. Peter Handscomb
7. Marcus Stoinis
8. Glenn Maxwell
9. Alex Carey
10. Mitchell Starc
11. Pat Cummins
12. Josh Hazlewood
13. Nathan Coulter-Nile
14. Adam Zampa
15. Nathan Lyon
The most controversial omission from this squad is Richardson, who suffered a nasty shoulder dislocation while fielding in the UAE and missed the final three ODIs of that series.
Jhye Richardson (AAP Image/Darren England)
Although Richardson is not expected to need surgery, such dislocations typically are tricky for fast bowlers to recover from.
The 22-year-old has never before suffered such an injury and Cricket Australia would be taking a risk by giving a prized World Cup position to the youngster while he is still early in his recovery period.
Were he fit, Richardson would have been all but a lock after taking 17 wickets at 21 this year. Instead, Australia will likely pick the experienced pace quartet of Starc, Cummins, Hazlewood and Coulter-Nile.
Recent reports suggest both Starc and Hazlewood will be fit well in time to play World Cup warm-up matches, and they are Australia’s two most accomplished bowlers.
Cummins, meanwhile, is in career-best form, having taken 17 wickets at 14 across the tours of India and the UAE.
Then there’s Coulter-Nile, the 31-year-old who has been consistently effective in white-ball cricket and has a fine record of 48 wickets at 26.
In the end, worries about Richardson’s fitness and the vast experience of Coulter-Nile will see the latter make this squad over the former.
Experience, or lack of it, is what will hold back Turner. The 26-year-old was a shock replacement for the ill Mitch Marsh for the recent five-match series in India. Turner had done little to earn this spot, having scored only one half-century in List A cricket over the previous five years.
Then he did something extraordinary, which vaulted him into the World Cup squads of many Australian fans and pundits.
Turner came to the crease in the fourth ODI in India, with Australia seemingly dead and buried at 2-1 down in the series, needing 130 from 77 balls against the world’s best attack on their home turf.
Turner dismantled the bowling unit, making 84* from 43 balls to help chase down a monstrous total of 359.
Ashton Turner (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
The problem for Turner is that he’s had little chance to prove that performance wasn’t an outlier, that he can perform at a consistently high level.
He did not play once in Australia’s five matches in Pakistan, not even getting a look in for the two dead rubbers, which suggests he is not in World Cup plans.
Impressive recent form means Aaron Finch, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Peter Handscomb and Glenn Maxwell all appear likely to make the squad.
Stoinis has been poor for some time now, averaging just 25 with the bat in his past 20 ODIs, but he will be saved by a desire to field two batting all-rounders in the starting XI to share ten overs of bowling.
Which brings us to the no-longer-banned stars, Warner and Smith.
The former is easily Australia’s best ODI batsman and has returned to elite cricket in dominant touch with three scorching knocks in the IPL.
Smith, meanwhile, has an outstanding record at first drop, averaging 53 with seven tons from just 53 matches.
His experience, fantastic record under pressure, ability to quell the world’s best bowlers, and sheer star power will see Smith picked in this squad, unless perhaps he has a shocker in the IPL over the next three weeks.
Sgt Pepperoni
Roar Rookie
Yep it didn’t name many players who are missing out Aus 2nd XI missing out Short Wade (wc and captain) Lynn Ferguson White Bailey Turner Agar Neser Kane Richardson Stanlake Others in the 15 Tremain, Siddle, M Marsh, Phillipe Not a bad bunch? Getting my 5th from Shortand a fit Turner. If that’s no good then sub in Marsh. I’m sure there’s plenty I’ve forgotten who could easily fit into this team – AJ Tye, Faulkner for example
Luke
Guest
What about AJ Tye? I know he’s only on the fringes of the setup but his variations in the middle and at the death could prove very handy. He also too that 5for again England in England, so we know he can play in the UK. He can whack it as well, so he does offer to strengthen the tail a bit. He’ll have to really prove himself in the IPL to have any chance, but he may be valuable as a replacement for the main quicks.
JamesH
Roar Guru
You'd hope so!
jameswm
Roar Guru
Turner's omission would be a mistake. We lack power hitters down the order, and have too many accumulators like Smith, Marsh and Handscomb. In fact, one of them should miss out, and Turner should be in. I'd leave out Marsh, as Handscomb is our backup keeper as well.
AREH
Roar Guru
Tend to agree Chris in that realistically you probably wouldn't want him lower than 5. I do think however if you're picking one reserve bat in the squad, he has the best overall mix of experience, form and white-ball ability.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Although, to bring in an injury backup in that way would require completely ruling out the injured player for the remainder of the tournament. So you couldn't, say, bring him in to replace someone who has a slight straight that might keep them out for one or two matches.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Don't know about any role in the top 6. He tends to need a long time to get going. I don't think he's the sort of player who can really come in towards the back end of an innings and be going at 100+ strike rate straight away.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I'm sure that, while it might not be clear to us, it has been made pretty clear to those actually involved in the process. And if there are things that aren't clear, I'm sure they can ask for clarification as to whether there would be any issues with that before submitting the squad.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Not necessarily, Wade has had multiple cracks at international cricket before and never really done all that well. He's now had this one really good summer. Before the summer most people probably had him in their "never to play for Australia again" lists. One good domestic summer shouldn't necessarily be enough to take you from that list to automatic selection, almost no matter how good it is, especially when you've never been able to convert domestic form to international form previously. It's done enough to perhaps take him off the "never again" list and onto the "maybe worth considering another shot" list if he can continue the form and an opening comes along.
U
Roar Rookie
Mostly in losing efforts
DTM
Guest
I agree. I wouldn't have picked him 6 months ago but he has done the job and deserves his spot. Same as Handscomb - I didn't see his value but he has proved me (and others) wrong. You just cant drop these blokes - it would destroy any team harmony that they have built up over the last 10 ODI's.
VivGilchrist
Roar Rookie
Who cares what the Barmy Army think?
Anup
Roar Rookie
1. Aaron Finch 2. Usman Khawaja 3. David Warner 4. Steven Smith 5. Glenn Maxwell 6. Marcus Stoinis 7. Alex Carey 8. Pat Cummins 9. Mitchell Starc 10. Jhye Richardson 11. Adam Zampa 12. Peter Handscomb (Back up WK) 13. Josh Hazelwood. Nathan Coulter Nile ( if Jhye Richardson is unfit) (Extra seamer) 14. Nathan Lyon (Extra spinner) 15. Mitchell Marsh (Back up all rounder) Answer to probable backlash on M, Marsh selection He is a good ODI player which is highlighted by Ponting's recent comment and most importantly you can't trust Stoinis.
Gee
Roar Rookie
They have decided Stoinis is the seam bowing all-rounder, no matter how much he sucks at it.
Peter
Roar Rookie
Mark Taylor not having Khawaja in his XI was odd. What’s the point of trying someone out, who then scores mountains of runs, in a winning side, and then ignoring all that. He had some type of reasoning. Taylor’s logic would suggest that they never should have picked Khawaja for these tours in the first place. “Uzzie, your’e a placeholder. When Davey comes back you won’t be in the XI. Doesn’t matter how many runs you score. Thanks mate.”
DTM
Guest
I would have Turner in for Smith. Save Smithy for the Ashes - I don't think he scores quick enough for ODI's and we have similar batsmen in Marsh and Handscomb who have done the job recently. Warner needs to bat at 3. We only really have Maxwell and Turner who can consistently score above 130 in the last 10 overs. We will need to do that in the WC. I also don't rate Hazelwoods ODI bowling ahead of J or K Richardson - both are also better fielders and bats. Again, save Josh for the Ashes. J Richardson's injury is a dislocation and the key will be his confidence in the shoulder - if he comes back and bowls at 130k's in the nets, you'd have to leave him out.
Ashan D
Roar Pro
True but they should allow as much chance as possible for Jhye to recover. He is a better ODI bowler (perhaps Test too) than Hoff. Actually I would much rather have K Richardson instead of Hoff since Hoff does not have the bag of tricks needed to excel in ODIs. There wont be much swing at all on flat English pitches so I do not see him make any impact.
JamesH
Roar Guru
My hesitation is that the committee might refuse a replacement for a player that was picked in the initial squad while injured, if they haven't done anything specific to worsen the injury (i.e. it just hadn't healed as fast as hoped). It would be nice to get some clarity on that.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Wade definitely deserves to go on the Australia A tour of England and he's also a reasonable option to be one of the back-up batsmen in the Ashes squad. But there's no room for him in the World Cup squad.
Paul
Roar Guru
would he be included in the Australia A side Ronan? It might be a nice consolation for Wade, though it might also be a massive problem for selectors if he bats brilliantly.